Result
1:2
28/02/2026 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 9
- Referee: Ospina J. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.64 | 0.58 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (319/392) | 76% (214/282) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.64 | 0.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.63 | 0.70 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 19 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 38 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (319/392) | 76% (214/282) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (21/41) | 43% (24/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (77/108) | 59% (47/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (8/22) | 0% (0/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.73 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (11/11) | 88% (7/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 12 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.70 | 3.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.30 | 2.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 26', Balanta M. 🟨,
- 32', Larrosa E. 🟨,
- 34', 0 - 1, Batalla E. ⚽, Londono K. (A),
- 37', 0 - 2, Batalla E. ⚽, Gutierrez A. (A),
- 38', Fydriszewski F. 🟨,
- 45+1', Londono K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Mantilla K. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
- 50', 1 - 2, Chaverra F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 61', Mosquera J. ↓, Salazar J. ↑,
- 63', Loboa H. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
- 63', Balanta M. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
- 70', Londono K. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
- 72', Chaverra F. ↓, Fabra F. ↑,
- 72', Moreno D. ↓, Mancilla G. ↑,
- 80', Charrupi G. ↓, Zarate A. ↑,
- 80', Batalla E. ↓, Romana C. ↑,
- 89', Moreno D. 🟨,
- 90+4', Romana C. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/5smcecp3
Chances of winning
Independiente Medellín
35.9% | Draw
31.3% | Atlético Bucaramanga
32.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)Atlético Bucaramanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.62 ↑
(2.4) |
2.98 ↓
(3.09) |
2.87 ↓
(3.03) |
6.6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 4.
- Ind Medellín is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Bucaramanga has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Ind Medellín will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:17. (average 1.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:3. (average 1.8:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Atlético Bucaramanga?
Independiente Medellín has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Bucaramanga won against Independiente Medellín?
Atlético Bucaramanga has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga were as follows:
29.10.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Atlético Bucaramanga
3:0
09.05.2025
Atlético Bucaramanga
-
Independiente Medellín
2:0
03.11.2024
Atlético Bucaramanga
-
Independiente Medellín
2:3
14.04.2024
Independiente Medellín
-
Atlético Bucaramanga
1:0
25.09.2023
Independiente Medellín
-
Atlético Bucaramanga
2:0
Latest results of Independiente Medellín
Latest results of Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 33:13 | 20 | 37 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 22:17 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Junior | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24:14 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26:19 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 20:21 | -1 | 25 |
| 7 | America De Cali | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
| 8 | Dep. Cali | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18:14 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 23:14 | 9 | 22 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26:18 | 8 | 22 |
| 11 | Aguilas | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 17:15 | 2 | 21 |
| 13 | Santa Fe | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 19:20 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 | Ind. Medellin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:22 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21:27 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Alianza | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 11:24 | -13 | 15 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14:28 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 | Chico | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11:26 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Pereira | 16 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 14:29 | -15 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
