Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Nacional – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

25/02/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estadio El Campín (Bogotá).

Primera A - Apertura - Round 5

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.29	1.60
Ball possession
40%	60%
Total shots
13	12
Shots on target
4	4
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
3	5
Passes
67% (151/225)	76% (266/351)
Yellow cards
3	2
Expected goals (xG)
1.29	1.60
xG on target (xGOT)
1.13	1.56
Total shots
13	12
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
8	6
Blocked shots
1	2
Shots inside the box
8	7
Shots outside the box
4	5
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
3	5
Touches in opposition box
23	18
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free kicks
11	15
Passes
67% (151/225)	76% (266/351)
Long passes
39% (22/56)	60% (42/70)
Passes in final third
55% (45/82)	55% (48/88)
Crosses
36% (4/11)	27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.84	0.40
Throw ins
15	17
Fouls
15	11
Tackles
75% (9/12)	50% (5/10)
Duels won
32	39
Clearances
18	20
Interceptions
7	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper saves
3	3
xGOT faced
1.56	1.13
Goals prevented
-0.44	0.13

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Fernandez O. ⚽, Mosquera E. (A),
32', Velasquez Y. 🟨,
36', Torres J. 🟨,
45', Olivera E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Zapata J. 🟨,
57', Rengifo J. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
57', Rodriguez N. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
59', Cardona E. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Morelos A. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Velasquez Y. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
69', Mosquera E. ↓, Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↑,
69', Torres D. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Morelos A. ⚽, Roman A. (A),
76', Zapata J. ↓, Uribe M. ↑,
76', Sarmiento A. ↓, Bello E. ↑,
79', Torres J. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
79', Mosquera A. ↓, Asprilla W. ↑,
83', Morelos A. ↓, Arango C. ↑,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/4ay4v8f2

Chances of winning

Independiente Santa Fe
29.4%

Draw
29.7%

Atlético Nacional
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

28%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

28.2%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.79)	3.13 ↓ (3.19)	2.3 ↑ (2.23)	7.1% (12%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional?

Users Predictions: Atlético Nacional will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 1.
Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Atlético Nacional has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:34. (average 0.8:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Santa Fe won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.9:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Santa Fe won against Atlético Nacional?

Independiente Santa Fe has won 1 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Independiente Santa Fe?

Atlético Nacional has won 5 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional were as follows:

25.07.2025 Atlético Nacional - Independiente Santa Fe 1:1

12.06.2025 Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional 1:2

08.06.2025 Atlético Nacional - Independiente Santa Fe 1:2

12.02.2025 Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional 2:2

08.12.2024 Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional 0:3

Latest results of Independiente Santa Fe

22.02.2026 Independiente Santa Fe - Junior Barranquilla 2:1 ✺

17.02.2026 Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Santa Fe 3:1 ✺

13.02.2026 América de Cali - Independiente Santa Fe 1:0 ✺

07.02.2026 Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Santa Fe 1:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Boyacá Chicó - Independiente Santa Fe 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Atlético Nacional

21.02.2026 Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar 3:0 ✺

15.02.2026 Deportivo Cali - Atlético Nacional 1:0 ✺

12.02.2026 Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF 4:1 ✺

04.02.2026 Atlético Nacional - América de Cali 2:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Atlético Nacional - Inter Miami 1:2 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atl. Nacional ✔	15	11	1	3	30:11	19	34
2	Dep. Pasto	15	8	4	3	21:17	4	28
3	Deportes Tolima	15	7	6	2	24:13	11	27
4	Once Caldas	15	6	7	2	26:19	7	25
5	Junior	15	8	1	6	21:20	1	25
6	America De Cali	15	7	3	5	19:12	7	24
7	Dep. Cali	15	6	4	5	17:13	4	22
8	Aguilas	15	6	4	5	16:17	-1	22
9	Inter Bogotu00e1	15	5	7	3	18:20	-2	22
10	Millonarios	15	6	3	6	25:17	8	21
11	Llaneros	15	4	8	3	16:14	2	20
12	Bucaramanga	15	4	7	4	18:14	4	19
13	Santa Fe	15	4	7	4	18:19	-1	19
14	Ind. Medellin	14	4	5	5	19:19	0	17
15	Fortaleza	15	3	7	5	17:23	-6	16
16	Cucuta	16	3	6	7	21:27	-6	15
17	Alianza	15	3	6	6	10:22	-12	15
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	4	2	10	14:28	-14	14
19	Chico	14	3	2	9	11:21	-10	11
20	Pereira	15	0	6	9	14:29	-15	6

Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )