Result
1:2
25/02/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 5
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 1.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (151/225) | 76% (266/351) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 1.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 1.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (151/225) | 76% (266/351) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (22/56) | 60% (42/70) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (45/82) | 55% (48/88) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 0.40 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (9/12) | 50% (5/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 32 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.13 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.44 | 0.13 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', 1 - 0, Fernandez O. ⚽, Mosquera E. (A),
- 32', Velasquez Y. 🟨,
- 36', Torres J. 🟨,
- 45', Olivera E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 53', Zapata J. 🟨,
- 57', Rengifo J. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
- 57', Rodriguez N. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
- 59', Cardona E. 🟨,
- 63', 1 - 1, Morelos A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 64', Velasquez Y. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
- 69', Mosquera E. ↓, Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↑,
- 69', Torres D. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
- 70', 1 - 2, Morelos A. ⚽, Roman A. (A),
- 76', Zapata J. ↓, Uribe M. ↑,
- 76', Sarmiento A. ↓, Bello E. ↑,
- 79', Torres J. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
- 79', Mosquera A. ↓, Asprilla W. ↑,
- 83', Morelos A. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/4ay4v8f2
Chances of winning
Independiente Santa Fe
29.4% | Draw
29.7% | Atlético Nacional
40.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.16 ↑
(2.79) |
3.13 ↓
(3.19) |
2.3 ↑
(2.23) |
7.1%
(12%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
Atlético Nacional will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 1.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Atlético Nacional has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:34. (average 0.8:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Santa Fe won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.9:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Santa Fe won against Atlético Nacional?
Independiente Santa Fe has won 1 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Independiente Santa Fe?
Atlético Nacional has won 5 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
25.07.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Santa Fe
1:1
12.06.2025
Independiente Santa Fe
-
Atlético Nacional
1:2
08.06.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Santa Fe
1:2
12.02.2025
Independiente Santa Fe
-
Atlético Nacional
2:2
08.12.2024
Independiente Santa Fe
-
Atlético Nacional
0:3
Latest results of Independiente Santa Fe
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:12 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Atl. Nacional | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15:4 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Dep. Pasto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | America De Cali | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:5 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13:10 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Junior | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12:10 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bucaramanga | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Dep. Cali | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:7 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Aguilas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Santa Fe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Fortaleza | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:13 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Millonarios | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Ind. Medellin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Cucuta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Pereira | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7:11 | -4 | 4 |
| 19 | Chico | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:13 | -6 | 4 |
| 20 | Alianza | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3:14 | -11 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
