Jacob Fearnley vs Tomas Machac – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:1
26/04/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Match Stats

Aces
95
Double Faults
39
1st Serve Percentage
59%52%
1st Serve Points Won
78% (36/46)69% (31/45)
2nd Serve Points Won
44% (14/32)51% (21/41)
Break Points Saved
60% (3/5)63% (5/8)
1st Return Points Won
31% (14/45)22% (10/46)
2nd Return Points Won
49% (20/41)56% (18/32)
Break Points Converted
38% (3/8)40% (2/5)
Winners
3220
Unforced Errors
3435
Net Points Won
71% (5/7)75% (9/12)
Service Points Won
64% (51/80)60% (53/88)
Return Points Won
40% (35/88)36% (29/80)
Total Points Won
51% (86/168)49% (82/168)
Last 10 Balls
73
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
83% (10/12)75% (9/12)
Return Games Won
25% (3/12)17% (2/12)
Total Games Won
54% (13/24)46% (11/24)

Chances of winning


Jacob Fearnley
34.4%
Tomas Machac
65.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.7% 68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8% 69.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
  • Jacob Fearnley - Tomas Machac Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.76
    (2.99)

    1.45
    (1.39)
    5.2%
    (5.3%)
    What is the prediction for Jacob Fearnley - Tomas Machac?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Fearnley will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Machac will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Machac: 54%99.8%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 Sets - Fearnley (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +3.5 Games - Fearnley (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tomas Machac will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 3 - 50%). Machac (votes: 3 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Fearnley is ranked ATP: 68. Machac is ranked ATP: 20.
    • Instantly two players are in a excellent shape.
    • Fearnley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Machac is a favorite.
    • Our prediction for today's Machac to win the game is with odds 1.38.
    • Recently, the players did not play each other.
    Latest results of Jacob Fearnley
    Latest results of Tomas Machac
    14.04.2025 Tomas Machac - Francis Tiafoe Canceled
    25.03.2025 Tomas Machac - Jakub Mensik Mensik J. walkover
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Bonzi B. (Q)Droguet T. (Q)2 : 1
    3Moller E. (Q)Cina F. (WC)2 : 0
    4ByeDiallo G. (32)
    5Norrie C. (19)Bye
    6Machac T.Comesana F.2 : 1
    7Bautista-Agut R.Tirante T. A.0 : 2
    8ByePaul T. (15)
    9Rublev A. (9)Bye
    10Zhang Z. (PR)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    11Sonego L.Lajovic D. (Q)0 : 2
    12ByeRinderknech A. (22)
    13Fonseca J. (27)Bye
    14Bergs Z.Cilic M.1 : 2
    15Jodar R. (WC)De Jong J.2 : 1
    16ByeDe Minaur A. (5)
    17Shelton B. (4)Bye
    18Prizmic D. (Q)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    19Basilashvili N. (Q)Ofner S.0 : 2
    20ByeEtcheverry T. M. (25)
    21Fils A. (21)Bye
    22Buse I.Mannarino A.2 : 0
    23Brooksby J.Nava E.0 : 2
    24ByeVacherot V. (14)
    25Lehecka J. (11)Bye
    26Tabilo A.Royer V.2 : 0
    27Muller A.Struff J-L.0 : 2
    28ByeMichelsen A. (33)
    29Griekspoor T. (29)Bye
    30Dzumhur D.Bellucci M.2 : 0
    31Faria J. (Q)Hurkacz H.0 : 2
    32ByeMusetti L. (6)
    33Bublik A. (8)Bye
    34Kypson P. (LL)Tsitsipas S.1 : 2
    35Trungelliti M. (LL)Merida Aguilar D. (Q)1 : 2
    36ByeMoutet C. (26)
    37Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Bye
    38Carreno-Busta P. (WC)Fucsovics M.2 : 1
    39Munar J.Shevchenko A.2 : 0
    40ByeRuud C. (12)
    41Cerundolo F. (16)Bye
    42Hanfmann Y.Giron M.2 : 1
    43Altmaier D.Cerundolo J. M.0 : 2
    44ByeDarderi L. (18)
    45Nakashima B. (28)Bye
    46Garin C. (LL)Blockx A.1 : 2
    47Gaubas V. (Q)Baez S.2 : 0
    48ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (3)
    49Medvedev D. (7)Bye
    50Marozsan F.Quinn E.2 : 0
    51Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)Opelka R. (RET.)0 : 0
    52ByeShapovalov D. (31)
    53Tien L. (17)Bye
    54Vallejo D. (Q)Dimitrov G.2 : 0
    55Ugo Carabelli C.Monfils G. (WC)2 : 0
    56ByeCobolli F. (10)
    57Khachanov K. (13)Bye
    58Landaluce M. (WC)Walton A.0 : 2
    59Popyrin A.Damm M. (Q)0 : 2
    60ByeMensik J. (23)
    61Humbert U. (30)Bye
    62Atmane T.Kecmanovic M.2 : 0
    63Borges N.Navone M.0 : 2
    64ByeZverev A. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bonzi B. (Q)2 : 1
    2Moller E. (Q)Diallo G. (RET.) (32)1 : 0
    3Norrie C. (19)Machac T.2 : 1
    4Tirante T. A.Paul T. (15)2 : 0
    5Rublev A. (9)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    6Lajovic D.Rinderknech A. (22)0 : 2
    7Fonseca J. (WO.) (27)Cilic M.
    8Jodar R.De Minaur A. (5)2 : 0
    9Shelton B. (4)Prizmic D.1 : 2
    10Ofner S.Etcheverry T. M. (25)0 : 2
    11Fils A. (21)Buse I.2 : 1
    12Nava E.Vacherot V. (14)2 : 1
    13Lehecka J. (11)Tabilo A.2 : 1
    14Struff J-L.Michelsen A. (33)0 : 2
    15Griekspoor T. (29)Dzumhur D.2 : 0
    16Hurkacz H.Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    17Bublik A. (8)Tsitsipas S.0 : 2
    18Merida Aguilar D.Moutet C. (26)2 : 0
    19Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Carreno-Busta P.2 : 0
    20Munar J.Ruud C. (12)0 : 2
    21Cerundolo F. (16)Hanfmann Y.2 : 0
    22Cerundolo J. M.Darderi L. (18)0 : 2
    23Nakashima B. (28)Blockx A.1 : 2
    24Gaubas V.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)0 : 2
    25Medvedev D. (7)Marozsan F.2 : 1
    26Budkov Kjaer N.Shapovalov D. (31)2 : 0
    27Tien L. (17)Vallejo D.0 : 2
    28Ugo Carabelli C.Cobolli F. (10)1 : 2
    29Khachanov K. (13)Walton A.2 : 0
    30Damm M.Mensik J. (23)0 : 2
    31Humbert U. (30)Atmane T.0 : 2
    32Navone M.Zverev A. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Moller E.2 : 0
    2Norrie C. (19)Tirante T. A.
    3Kopriva V.Rinderknech A. (22)
    4Fonseca J. (27)Jodar R.
    5Prizmic D.Etcheverry T. M. (25)1 : 2
    6Fils A. (21)Nava E.2 : 0
    7Lehecka J. (11)Michelsen A. (33)2 : 0
    8Griekspoor T. (29)Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    9Tsitsipas S.Merida Aguilar D.
    10Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Ruud C. (12)
    11Cerundolo F. (16)Darderi L. (18)
    12Blockx A.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
    13Medvedev D. (7)Budkov Kjaer N.
    14Vallejo D.Cobolli F. (10)
    15Khachanov K. (13)Mensik J. (23)
    16Atmane T.Zverev A. (2)

    1/8-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3Etcheverry T. M. (25)Fils A. (21)
    4Lehecka J. (11)Musetti L. (6)
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13TBD #14
    8TBD #15TBD #16

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2