Result
1:0
16/04/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Virsliga - Round 7
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Latvia | Sportacentrs TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 0.95 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (380/461) | 74% (248/333) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 0.95 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (380/461) | 74% (248/333) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 66% (50/76) | 41% (26/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (120/168) | 67% (75/112) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/24) | 6% (1/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 0.85 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (9/17) | 65% (15/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 71 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.83 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 21', Garzha A. 🟨,
- 32', Kurbatov K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 48', 1 - 0, Yakubu J. ⚽,
- 65', Papa 🟨,
- 70', Becers R. ↓, Melkis R. ↑,
- 74', Yakubu J. 🟨,
- 80', Janovskis A. ↓, Smaukstelis E. ↑,
- 81', Skrebels R. 🟨,
- 86', Prior L. 🟨,
- 87', Traore A. ↓, Pinaskins E. ↑,
- 87', Sylla M. ↓, Kivinda D. ↑,
- 90', Holoubek D. ↓, Patika G. ↑,
Chances of winning
BFC Daugavpils
47.4% | Draw
25.8% | Jelgava
26.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)Jelgava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.95 ↓
(2) |
3.58 ↑
(3.52) |
3.44 ↑
(3.41) |
8.4%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
BFC Daugavpils will win
(9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 2.
- In recent matches, Daugavpils has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Jelgava is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Daugavpils is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:21. (average 1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Daugavpils won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has BFC Daugavpils won against Jelgava?
BFC Daugavpils has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Jelgava won against BFC Daugavpils?
Jelgava has won 2 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between BFC Daugavpils - Jelgava were as follows:
18.10.2025
Jelgava
-
BFC Daugavpils
0:0
27.07.2025
BFC Daugavpils
-
Jelgava
2:0
25.05.2025
BFC Daugavpils
-
Jelgava
1:0
10.04.2025
Jelgava
-
BFC Daugavpils
4:1
01.09.2024
Jelgava
-
BFC Daugavpils
0:0
Latest results of BFC Daugavpils
Latest results of Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | RFS | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16:6 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 32:12 | 20 | 20 |
| 3 | Auda | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16:11 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Super Nova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 13 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:14 | -2 | 13 |
| 6 | FK Liepaja | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Grobina | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Jelgava | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:17 | -10 | 8 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga
