Result
1:1
12/04/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Virsliga - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Latvia | Sportacentrs TV, TV4 |
 World | Onefootball, Sport 2 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.94 | 0.85 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (432/521) | 71% (252/357) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.94 | 0.85 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.11 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (432/521) | 71% (252/357) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (33/60) | 23% (15/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (84/122) | 67% (72/108) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 6% (1/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 0.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 33 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 92% (12/13) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 73 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.11 | 1.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.11 | 0.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 6', 0 - 1, Rataj T. ⚽, Dvorak A. (A),
- 43', Rataj T. 🟨,
- 45+1', Silva A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Pulis I. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
- 63', Janovskis A. ↓, Melkis R. ↑,
- 63', Becers R. ↓, Petersons A. ↑,
- 65', Haidara A. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
- 65', Patijcuks D. ↓, Patrikejevs I. ↑,
- 68', Rodolphe E. 🟨,
- 72', Fellipe Vieira 🟨,
- 76', 1 - 1, Rodolphe E. ⚽,
- 83', Fellipe Vieira ↓, Ogunniyi A. ↑,
- 83', Amatkarijo C. ↓, Leidsman K. ↑,
- 90', Dvorak A. 🟨,
- 90+3', Straalman B. 🟨,
- 90+4', Rataj T. ↓, Butovskis A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Liepāja
55.1% | Draw
25% | Jelgava
20% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Liepāja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Liepāja's performance.Jelgava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jelgava might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (-13.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Liepāja that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (+9.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jelgava could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Liepāja - Jelgava Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.67 ↓
(1.97) |
3.69 ↑
(3.45) |
4.62 ↑
(3.44) |
8.5%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Liepāja - Jelgava?
Users Predictions:
Liepāja will win
(14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Liepāja will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 8)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 3.
- In recent matches, Liepāja has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Jelgava's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, Jelgava has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Liepāja is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 44:21. (average 2.2:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Liepāja won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:8. (average 1.9:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Liepāja won against Jelgava?
Liepāja has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Jelgava won against Liepāja?
Jelgava has won 3 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Liepāja - Jelgava were as follows:
25.10.2025
Liepāja
-
Jelgava
2:2
02.08.2025
Jelgava
-
Liepāja
1:2
30.05.2025
Jelgava
-
Liepāja
0:1
14.04.2025
Liepāja
-
Jelgava
1:0
03.11.2024
Jelgava
-
Liepāja
2:2
Latest results of Liepāja
Latest results of Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | RFS | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16:6 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 32:12 | 20 | 20 |
| 3 | Auda | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16:11 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Super Nova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 13 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:14 | -2 | 13 |
| 6 | FK Liepaja | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Grobina | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Jelgava | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:17 | -10 | 8 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga
