Result
5:4 OT
27/09/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.73 | 1.80 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 30 | 18 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 16.67% (5/30) | 22.22% (4/18) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 14 | 25 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 77.78% (14/18) | 83.33% (25/30) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 40% (2/5) | 0% (0/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (2/2) | 60% (3/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 36 | 26 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 58.06 | 41.94 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 01:14, Mantykivi M. (2 min),
- 08:49, 0 - 1, Kucerik R. (G), Teuho-Markkola T. (A), Latvala O. (A2)
- 09:22, Ketola J. (2 min),
- 19:58, 1 - 1, Rissanen J. (G), Hartikainen T. (A), Maenpaa J. (A2)
- 2nd Period (1 - 1)
- 05:03, Lappalainen L. (2 min),
- 07:09, 1 - 2, Borg E. (G), Henman L. (A), Svejkovsky L. (A2)
- 12:35, Svejkovsky L. (2 min),
- 15:54, Mottard P. (2 min),
- 16:29, 2 - 2, Hartikainen T. (G), Borchardt C. (A), Rissanen J. (A2)
- 3rd Period (2 - 2)
- 06:04, Niskanen A. (2 min),
- 07:21, Henman L. (2 min),
- 07:39, 3 - 2, Hartikainen T. (G), Rissanen J. (A), Lappalainen L. (A2)
- 12:42, 3 - 3, Henman L. (G), Tukio O. (A), Kucerik R. (A2)
- 13:33, 3 - 4, Torok M. (G),
- 18:51, 4 - 4, Maenpaa J. (G), Borchardt C. (A), Hartikainen T. (A2)
- Overtime (1 - 0)
- 02:52, 5 - 4, Curry P. (G), Maenpaa J. (A),
Chances of winning
KalPa
49% | Draw
22.1% | Ilves
28.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
KalPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KalPa's performance.Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ilves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (-7.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KalPa that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ilves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
KalPa - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.93 ↓
(2.23) |
4.26 ↑
(4.02) |
3.25 ↑
(2.71) |
6%
(6.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for KalPa - Ilves?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. KalPa will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Ilves will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. KalPa (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 3.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- KalPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 53:55. (average 2.7:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:25. (average 2.9:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has KalPa won against Ilves?
KalPa has won 15 of their last 26 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against KalPa?
Ilves has won 11 of their last 26 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between KalPa - Ilves were as follows:
15.08.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
21.04.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
18.04.2025
Ilves
-
KalPa
3:1
16.04.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
1:0
14.04.2025
Ilves
-
KalPa
3:0
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Assat | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 39:23 | 24 |
| 2 | JYP | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 47:36 | 24 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 44:35 | 23 |
| 4 | KooKoo | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 46:41 | 22 |
| 5 | Tappara | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 39:28 | 21 |
| 6 | Kiekko-Espoo | 13 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 36:35 | 21 |
| 7 | Lukko | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35:34 | 20 |
| 8 | Jukurit | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 34:39 | 20 |
| 9 | KalPa | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33:34 | 19 |
| 10 | TPS Turku | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 29:28 | 18 |
| 11 | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 32:34 | 18 |
| 12 | Karpat | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 45:45 | 16 |
| 13 | Vaasan Sport | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 34:40 | 14 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23:34 | 13 |
| 15 | Ilves | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 31:45 | 12 |
| 16 | IFK Helsinki | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 25:41 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Liiga (Play Out: )
