Result
21/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Chances of winning
KalPa
28.3% | Draw
23.4% | Ilves
48.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that KalPa's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+10.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for KalPa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-12.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
KalPa - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.32 ↑
(2.61) |
3.92 ↑
(3.73) |
1.93 ↓
(2.36) |
7.6%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 3.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- KalPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Ilves will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 56:56. (average 2.8:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:21. (average 3.4:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has KalPa won against Ilves?
KalPa has won 16 of their last 29 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against KalPa?
Ilves has won 13 of their last 29 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between KalPa - Ilves were as follows:
31.01.2026
Ilves
-
KalPa
3:1
01.11.2025
Ilves
-
KalPa
5:2
27.09.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
15.08.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
21.04.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
