Result
3:4
21/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.28 | 4.25 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 16 | 36 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 18.75% (3/16) | 11.11% (4/36) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 32 | 13 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 88.89% (32/36) | 81.25% (13/16) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (2/2) | 100% (0/0) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 26 | 25 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 50.98 | 49.02 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 1)
- 07:34, 1 - 0, Kapanen K. (G), Gallet H. (A), Ruotsalainen V. (A2)
- 12:28, Westerlund F. (2 min),
- 17:43, 2 - 0, Kapanen K. (G), Gallet H. (A),
- 19:30, 2 - 1, Torok M. (G), Johansson S. (A), Henman L. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 2)
- 07:13, 2 - 2, Nyberg J. (G), Soini S. (A), Jasek L. (A2)
- 12:42, 2 - 3, Nyberg J. (G), Bjorkqvist K. (A), Klingberg C. (A2)
- 3rd Period (1 - 1)
- 16:33, 2 - 4, Pelli A. (G), Engberg T. (A), Borg E. (A2)
- 17:05, 3 - 4, Soderlund T. (G), Ruotsalainen V. (A), Kapanen K. (A2)
- 19:00, (2 min),
Chances of winning
KalPa
25.4% | Draw
22.8% | Ilves
51.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that KalPa's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+13.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for KalPa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-15.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
KalPa - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.67 ↑
(2.61) |
4.03 ↑
(3.73) |
1.82 ↓
(2.36) |
7.1%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for KalPa - Ilves?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Ilves will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 3.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- KalPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Ilves will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 56:56. (average 2.8:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:21. (average 3.4:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has KalPa won against Ilves?
KalPa has won 16 of their last 29 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against KalPa?
Ilves has won 13 of their last 29 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between KalPa - Ilves were as follows:
31.01.2026
Ilves
-
KalPa
3:1
01.11.2025
Ilves
-
KalPa
5:2
27.09.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
15.08.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
21.04.2025
KalPa
-
Ilves
5:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
