Result
1:4
28/02/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 28 | 26 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 3.57% (1/28) | 15.38% (4/26) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 22 | 27 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 88% (22/25) | 96.43% (27/28) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/2) | 100% (1/1) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/1) | 100% (2/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 34 | 16 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 68 | 32 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 2)
- 02:41, Jokipakka J. (2 min),
- 09:54, 1 - 0, Erholtz E. (G), Kantner M. (A), Virta P. (A2)
- 16:50, Tikka T. (2 min),
- 17:42, 1 - 1, Rautiainen B. (G), Blichfeld J. (A), Matinmikko A. (A2)
- 18:39, 1 - 2, Haapala H. (G),
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 3rd Period (0 - 2)
- 11:54, Simontaival K. (2 min),
- 16:46, 1 - 3, Rautiainen B. (G), Juolevi O. (A), Mattila Ju. (A2)
- 18:44, 1 - 4, Sylvegard E. (G), Matinmikko A. (A),
Chances of winning
Kärpät
25.2% | Draw
21.6% | Tappara
53.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)Tappara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tappara than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
Kärpät - Tappara Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.76 ↑
(3.49) |
4.25 ↓
(4.39) |
1.76 ↓
(1.8) |
7.1%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 6.00
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 3.
- Recent performances by Kärpät have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Tappara is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Kärpät may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Tappara will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 50:60. (average 2.5:3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:34. (average 3.1:3.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Tappara?
Kärpät has won 6 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tappara won against Kärpät?
Tappara has won 10 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - Tappara were as follows:
04.02.2026
Tappara
-
Kärpät
1:4
01.11.2025
Kärpät
-
Tappara
3:4
27.09.2025
Tappara
-
Kärpät
3:2
29.08.2025
Kärpät
-
Tappara
4:3
12.03.2025
Tappara
-
Kärpät
0:3
Latest results of Tappara
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
