Result
1:2
14/03/2026 at 06:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 21
- Referee: Prokopov A. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | Q Football Asia |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 3.03 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 26 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (149/238) | 78% (369/475) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 3.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 3.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 26 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 19 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 40 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (149/238) | 78% (369/475) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 28% (15/54) | 43% (24/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 51% (38/74) | 69% (104/150) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 33% (7/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.45 | 1.87 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (11/11) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.05 | 0.93 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.05 | -0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 5', 0 - 1, Spertsyan E. ⚽, Joao Batxi (A),
- 7', Olaza L. 🟨,
- 24', Paltsev V. 🟨,
- 35', Zaika K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 71', Fedorov Z. ↓, Zinkovskiy A. ↑,
- 71', Mukhin M. ↓, Ignatov M. ↑,
- 72', Furtado G. ↓, Vasiljev D. ↑,
- 73', Victor Sa ↓, Boselli J. ↑,
- 74', Krivtsov N. ↓, Chernikov A. ↑,
- 75', Marcelo Alves 🟨,
- 81', Kovalenko A. ↓, Ezhov R. ↑,
- 82', Boselli J. 🟨,
- 83', Zaika K. ↓, Volkov S. ↑,
- 86', Joao Batxi ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
- 88', 1 - 1, Ignatov M. ⚽, Zinkovskiy A. (A),
- 90+4', Vasiljev D. 🟨,
- 90+5', 1 - 2, Spertsyan E. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+7', Spertsyan E. ↓, Lenini K. ↑,
Chances of winning
Sochi
11.3% | Draw
19% | Krasnodar
69.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)Krasnodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Krasnodar's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (-8.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Krasnodar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Sochi - Krasnodar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
8.51 ↑
(6.6) |
5.05 ↑
(4.2) |
1.37 ↓
(1.43) |
4.4%
(8.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Sochi - Krasnodar?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +1 - Krasnodar (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Krasnodar (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 1).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 0.
- Sochi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Krasnodar is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Krasnodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Sochi has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Krasnodar is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Krasnodar: Petrov S.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:35. (average 1.1:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sochi won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.3:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Sochi won against Krasnodar?
Sochi has won 0 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Krasnodar won against Sochi?
Krasnodar has won 8 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sochi - Krasnodar were as follows:
23.10.2025
Krasnodar
-
Sochi
3:0
27.08.2025
Sochi
-
Krasnodar
2:4
17.08.2025
Krasnodar
-
Sochi
5:1
18.05.2024
Sochi
-
Krasnodar
2:3
30.07.2023
Krasnodar
-
Sochi
2:0
Latest results of Krasnodar
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 56:21 | 35 | 63 |
| 2 | Zenit | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 50:18 | 32 | 62 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 52:36 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 45:38 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Baltika | 28 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 37:18 | 19 | 46 |
| 6 | CSKA Moscow | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 39:31 | 8 | 45 |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 26:26 | 0 | 42 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 39 |
| 9 | Akhmat Grozny | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 33:37 | -4 | 35 |
| 10 | FK Rostov | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 22:30 | -8 | 30 |
| 11 | Krylya Sovetov | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 31:48 | -17 | 29 |
| 12 | Akron Togliatti | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 33:46 | -13 | 27 |
| 13 | Orenburg | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 28:41 | -13 | 26 |
| 14 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 18:36 | -18 | 24 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 23:46 | -23 | 22 |
| 16 | Sochi | 28 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 27:57 | -30 | 21 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
