Result
 
                    0:1
                
               
                
                                 
                    
                    
                        25/09/2025 at  18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
                    
 
                 
                
                
				
				                
				
				                
                 
                 
                     
                     
                                                -  Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)
- Where to Watch on TV: 
                    
|  |  | 
|---|
|  Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports | 
|  Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD | 
|  Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 | 
|  Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 | 
|  Brazil | Paramount+ | 
|  Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 | 
|  Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol | 
|  Chile | Disney+, ESPN Premium | 
|  Colombia | Disney+, ESPN | 
|  Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go | 
|  Georgia | Silk Sport 1, Silk Universal | 
|  Germany | Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+ | 
|  Indonesia | Mola TV | 
|  Israel | Sport 4 | 
|  Italy | Como TV | 
|  Kosovo | Arena Premium 1 | 
|  Malaysia | Mola | 
|  Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 | 
|  New-zealand | beIN Connect | 
|  Peru | Disney+, ESPN | 
|  Portugal | Sport TV1 | 
|  Russia | Okko Sport | 
|  Serbia | Arena Premium 1 | 
|  Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 | 
|  South-america | ESPN South | 
|  Spain | LaLiga+ | 
|  Turkey | S Sport, S Sport+ | 
|  Uruguay | Disney+ | 
|  Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz | 
|  Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter | 
 
                     
                  
				
				            
            
            
                            				
                
                
				
				                 
                    
                        Match Stats
                    
                    
                        
                                
|  |  | 
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 2.84 | 0.55 | 
| Ball Possession | 
|---|
| 75% | 25% | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 26 | 4 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 11 | 1 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 1 | 1 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 16 | 0 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 86% (524/606) | 59% (127/215) | 
| Yellow Cards | 
|---|
| 1 | 2 | 
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 2.84 | 0.55 | 
| xG on target (xGOT) | 
|---|
| 2.99 | 0.88 | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 26 | 4 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 11 | 1 | 
| Shots off target | 
|---|
| 6 | 2 | 
| Blocked Shots | 
|---|
| 9 | 1 | 
| Shots inside the Box | 
|---|
| 17 | 3 | 
| Shots outside the Box | 
|---|
| 9 | 1 | 
| Hit the Woodwork | 
|---|
| 1 | 0 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 1 | 1 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 16 | 0 | 
| Touches in opposition box | 
|---|
| 32 | 5 | 
| Accurate through passes | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Offsides | 
|---|
| 3 | 1 | 
| Free Kicks | 
|---|
| 14 | 7 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 86% (524/606) | 59% (127/215) | 
| Long passes | 
|---|
| 49% (24/49) | 20% (11/54) | 
| Passes in final third | 
|---|
| 76% (144/190) | 39% (19/49) | 
| Crosses | 
|---|
| 22% (11/51) | 50% (2/4) | 
| Expected assists (xA) | 
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.13 | 
| Throw-ins | 
|---|
| 27 | 14 | 
| Fouls | 
|---|
| 7 | 14 | 
| Tackles | 
|---|
| 53% (10/19) | 64% (14/22) | 
| Duels won | 
|---|
| 56 | 43 | 
| Clearances | 
|---|
| 12 | 45 | 
| Interceptions | 
|---|
| 7 | 8 | 
| Errors leading to shot | 
|---|
| 0 | 1 | 
| Errors leading to goal | 
|---|
| 1 | 0 | 
| Goalkeeper Saves | 
|---|
| 0 | 11 | 
| xGOT faced | 
|---|
| 0.88 | 2.99 | 
| Goals prevented | 
|---|
| -0.12 | 2.99 | 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Key Moments
                    
                    
					    Here there are
                                
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 14', Cornejo F. 🟨, 
- 36', Quintero J. 🟨, 
- 41', 0 - 1, Medina J. ⚽, 
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Bobadilla D. ↓, Dinenno J. ↑, 
- 46', Franco A. ↓, Mailton ↑, 
- 67', Ferreira ↓, Lucas Moura ↑, 
- 67', Rigoni E. ↓, Lucca Marques ↑, 
- 67', Medina J. ↓, Estrada M. ↑, 
- 80', Alzugaray L. ↓, Pastran L. ↑, 
- 80', Cornejo F. ↓, Minda K. ↑, 
- 82', Rodriguinho ↓, Alisson ↑, 
- 90', Ramirez Leon B. J. ↓, Mina R. ↑, 
- 90+5', Robert Arboleda 🟨, 
  
                 
				 				 
				                 
				 				 
				 
				 				 
				 
				 
				
				                 
                    
                        Chances of winning
                    
                    
                        
                                
 | São Paulo 68.7%
 | Draw 21.4%
 | LDU Quito 9.9%
 | 
Initial Probability
 (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+1.3%)                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        São Paulo - LDU Quito Odds
                    
                    
                        
                                
            
            
            
			
			
			   |  | 1 | X | 2 | Marga |  | 
			
			
			   | Avarage Now (Initially)
 | 1.38 ↓ (1.41)
 | 4.45 ↑ (4.34)
 | 9.61 ↑ (8.96)
 | 5.3% (5.4%)
 |  | 
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  
                 
				 				 
				 
				 
            
                                 
                    
                        What is the prediction for São Paulo - LDU Quito?
                    
                    
                        
						        
                                            
                                            Users Predictions: 
                                            
                                            
                                            8 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). 
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 64.6% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).                                 The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
                        
						
                    
 
                 
                                
                
                                  
                    
                     Preview Facts
                    
                    
                        
                             - 1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, São Paulo is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Soares C.
(Illness)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Ferreira
(Injury)
- There are questionable in LDU Quito: Alvarado A.
(Inactive)
Cabeza A.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.4:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).                        
  
                 
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against LDU Quito?
                    
                    
                        
                            São Paulo has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has LDU Quito won against São Paulo?
                    
                    
                        
                             LDU Quito has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                
                                 
                    
                        What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
                    
                    
                    
                        
                            The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - LDU Quito were as follows:
                                                        
                                18.09.2025 
                                LDU Quito 
                                - 
                                São Paulo 
                                2:0
                            
        
                                                        
                                31.08.2023 
                                São Paulo 
                                - 
                                LDU Quito 
                                1:1
                            
        
                                                        
                                24.08.2023 
                                LDU Quito 
                                - 
                                São Paulo 
                                2:1
                            
        
                                                     
                      
                    
                 
                
                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of São Paulo                    
                    
                    
                 
                                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of LDU Quito                    
                    
                 
				
				
				
                
                
                                 
                                 
                			   
			                       
                            
                                                
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Atl. Nacional | Sao Paulo | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 | 
| 2 | Botafogo RJ | LDU Quito | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 | 
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | River Plate | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 | 
| 4 | U. de Deportes | Palmeiras | 0 : 0, 0 : 4 | 
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | Estudiantes L.P. | 0 : 0, 0 : 1 | 
| 6 | Flamengo RJ | Internacional | 2 : 0, 1 : 0 | 
| 7 | Fortaleza | Velez Sarsfield | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 | 
| 8 | Penarol | Racing Club | 1 : 3, 1 : 0 | 
Quarter-finals| 1 | Sao Paulo | LDU Quito | 0 : 1, 0 : 2 | 
| 2 | River Plate | Palmeiras | 1 : 3, 1 : 2 | 
| 3 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 1, 1 : 2 | 
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | Racing Club | 0 : 1, 0 : 1 | 
Semi-finals| 1 | LDU Quito | Palmeiras | 3 : 0 | 
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Racing Club | 1 : 0 | 
Final