Result
1:1
16/08/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 5
- Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 6 |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2, Arena Sport 7 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (420/502) | 75% (194/258) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 1.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 0.44 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (420/502) | 75% (194/258) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (19/38) | 44% (22/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (124/174) | 75% (65/87) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/26) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.83 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.44 | 1.33 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.56 | 0.33 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 60', Lisman K. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
- 64', 0 - 1, Blanik D. ⚽,
- 71', Dlugosz W. ↓, Davidovic S. ↑,
- 71', Blanik D. ↓, Niski N. ↑,
- 75', Bengtsson L. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
- 75', Thordarson G. ↓, Szymczak F. ↑,
- 75', Gurgul M. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
- 75', Antonin ↓, Nikolov V. ↑,
- 75', Nono ↓, Zwozny H. ↑,
- 79', Niski N. 🟨,
- 80', Svetlin T. ↓, Kaminski W. ↑,
- 83', 1 - 1, Palma L. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
- 83', Jagiello F. ↓, Kozubal A. ↑,
- 90+2', Ishak M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Lech Poznań
54.1% | Draw
25.3% | Korona Kielce
20.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lech Poznań's form might have worsened.Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+9.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-5.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Korona Kielce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↑
(1.5) |
3.74 ↓
(4.38) |
4.62 ↓
(5.93) |
5.3%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 19 - 90.5%). Korona will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 78% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%).
- BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lech Poznań will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 4.
- Lech is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Korona is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Lech is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Lech: Hakans D.
(Ankle Injury)
Murawski R.
(Leg Injury)
Sousa A.
(Inactive)
Walemark P.
(Surgery)
- There will not play in Korona: Popov V.
(Foot Injury)
- There are questionable in Lech: Gumny R.
(Injury)
Jagiello F.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lech won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 28:18. (average 1.4:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Korona Kielce?
Lech Poznań has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Korona Kielce won against Lech Poznań?
Korona Kielce has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce were as follows:
05.04.2025
Lech Poznań
-
Korona Kielce
2:0
29.09.2024
Korona Kielce
-
Lech Poznań
2:3
25.05.2024
Lech Poznań
-
Korona Kielce
1:2
02.12.2023
Korona Kielce
-
Lech Poznań
0:1
19.05.2023
Korona Kielce
-
Lech Poznań
0:3
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Latest results of Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19:10 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Cracovia | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20:12 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Wisla Plock | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15:8 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 16:11 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20:18 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Zaglebie | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25:18 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Widzew Lodz | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Legia | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22:22 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Rakow | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Pogon Szczecin | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7:19 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21:27 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Termalica B-B | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9:13 | -4 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
