Lech Poznań vs Shakhtar Donetsk – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

12/03/2026 at 13:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Chances of winning


Lech Poznań
36.1%
Draw
27.8%
Shakhtar Donetsk
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.3% 27.3% 36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9% 27.6% 36.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
  • Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.58
    (2.62)
    3.39
    (3.49)
    2.58
    (2.61)
    7.1%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    Preview Facts
    • Lech is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Shakhtar has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Shakhtar has had a series of home games.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lech won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.5:2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk were as follows:
    25.01.2024 Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk 1:3
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    Latest results of Shakhtar Donetsk
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1KuPS (21)Lech Poznan (11)0 : 1, 0 : 2
    2Shakhtar Donetsk (6)Bye
    3Noah (19)AZ Alkmaar (14)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    4Sparta Prague (4)Bye
    5Zrinjski (23)Crystal Palace (10)0 : 2, 1 : 1
    6AEK Larnaca (8)Bye
    7Jagiellonia (17)Fiorentina (15)4 : 2, 0 : 3
    8Rakow (2)Bye
    9Shkendija (22)Samsunspor (12)0 : 4, 0 : 1
    10Rayo Vallecano (5)Bye
    11Drita (20)Celje (13)2 : 3, 2 : 3
    12AEK Athens (3)Bye
    13Sigma Olomouc (24)Lausanne (9)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    14Mainz (7)Bye
    15Omonia (18)Rijeka (16)1 : 3, 0 : 1
    16Strasbourg (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1Lech Poznan (11)Shakhtar Donetsk (6)
    2AZ Alkmaar (14)Sparta Prague (4)
    3Crystal Palace (10)AEK Larnaca (8)
    4Fiorentina (15)Rakow (2)
    5Samsunspor (12)Rayo Vallecano (5)
    6Celje (13)AEK Athens (3)
    7Sigma Olomouc (24)Mainz (7)
    8Rijeka (16)Strasbourg (1)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2