Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lech Poznań – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
1:2
19/03/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
  • Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 3
chinaChinaZhiBo8
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
denmarkDenmarkDisney+
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceCanal+ Live 8
germanyGermanyRTL+
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
icelandIcelandViaplay
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoDisney+
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandPolsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 9
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 10, M+ Liga de Campeones 16
swedenSwedenDisney+
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 10, TNT Sports 1
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldVIX App

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.442.14
Ball possession
55%45%
Total shots
1016
Shots on target
17
Big chances
14
Corner kicks
45
Passes
88% (424/481)82% (310/378)
Yellow cards
20
Expected goals (xG)
0.442.14
xG on target (xGOT)
0.141.64
Total shots
1016
Shots on target
17
Shots off target
66
Blocked shots
33
Shots inside the box
612
Shots outside the box
44
Hit the woodwork
00
Headed goals
01
Big chances
14
Corner kicks
45
Touches in opposition box
1623
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free kicks
710
Passes
88% (424/481)82% (310/378)
Long passes
50% (28/56)51% (29/57)
Passes in final third
69% (75/109)77% (84/109)
Crosses
6% (1/16)29% (5/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.520.64
Throw ins
1823
Fouls
107
Tackles
54% (7/13)71% (12/17)
Duels won
4041
Clearances
1718
Interceptions
66
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
51
xGOT faced
1.640.14
Goals prevented
-0.360.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 13', 0 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽, Ismaheel T. (A),
  • 45+7', 0 - 2, Ishak M. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Gumny R. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
  • 49', Ghram A. 🟨,
  • 62', Nazaryna Y. ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
  • 67', 1 - 2, Moutinho J. (Own goal),
  • 68', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
  • 68', Ismaheel T. ↓, Gholizadeh A. ↑,
  • 77', Rodriguez P. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
  • 81', Kaua Elias ↓, Traore L. ↑,
  • 81', Alisson ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
  • 83', Thordarson G. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
  • 85', Newerton ↓, Eguinaldo ↑,
  • 90+1', Turan A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Shakhtar Donetsk
43.2%		Draw
26.4%		Lech Poznań
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.2% 25.2% 26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7% 24.9% 26.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
  • Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+5.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shakhtar Donetsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
    •

    Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.2 ↑
    (1.97)    		 3.59 ↓
    (3.77)    		 3.13 ↓
    (3.58)    		 5.2%
    (5.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • TQ, OT - Shakhtar (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Shakhtar Donetsk will win (41 of 51 users predict this - 80.39%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 69.49% – 91.29%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Shakhtar Donetsk will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Lech (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • First leg result: 3-1. Second leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
    • Shakhtar is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Lech has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Shakhtar could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Shakhtar: Bondar V. (Yellow Cards) Khromey M. (Inactive) Kornienko V. (Inactive) Matviienko M. (Injury) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Sigeev K. (Inactive) Udod D. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Lisman K. (Inactive) Murawski R. (Surgery)
    • There are questionable in Shakhtar: Kryskiv D. (Injury) Marlon Gomes (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lech: Hakans D. (Inactive)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shakhtar won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.2:0.6).
    • Including home match between the teams, Shakhtar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań were as follows:
    12.03.2026 Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk 1:3
    25.01.2024 Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk 1:3
    Latest results of Shakhtar Donetsk
    15.03.2026 Shakhtar Donetsk - Metalist 1925 1:0 ✺
    12.03.2026 Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk 1:3 ✺
    06.03.2026 Oleksandriya - Shakhtar Donetsk 0:1 ✺
    27.02.2026 Shakhtar Donetsk - Veres Rivne 1:0 ✺
    22.02.2026 Shakhtar Donetsk - Karpaty Lviv 3:0 ✺
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    15.03.2026 Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań 0:1 ✺
    12.03.2026 Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk 1:3 ✺
    07.03.2026 Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań 2:1 ✺
    04.03.2026 Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze 0:1 ✺
    01.03.2026 Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa 4:3 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1KuPS (21)Lech Poznan (11)0 : 1, 0 : 2
    2Shakhtar Donetsk (6)Bye
    3Noah (19)AZ Alkmaar (14)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    4Sparta Prague (4)Bye
    5Zrinjski (23)Crystal Palace (10)0 : 2, 1 : 1
    6AEK Larnaca (8)Bye
    7Jagiellonia (17)Fiorentina (15)4 : 2, 0 : 3
    8Rakow (2)Bye
    9Shkendija (22)Samsunspor (12)0 : 4, 0 : 1
    10Rayo Vallecano (5)Bye
    11Drita (20)Celje (13)2 : 3, 2 : 3
    12AEK Athens (3)Bye
    13Sigma Olomouc (24)Lausanne (9)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    14Mainz (7)Bye
    15Omonia (18)Rijeka (16)1 : 3, 0 : 1
    16Strasbourg (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1Lech Poznan (11)Shakhtar Donetsk (6)2 : 1, 1 : 3
    2AZ Alkmaar (14)Sparta Prague (4)4 : 0, 2 : 1
    3Crystal Palace (10)AEK Larnaca (8)2 : 1, 0 : 0
    4Fiorentina (15)Rakow (2)2 : 1, 2 : 1
    5Samsunspor (12)Rayo Vallecano (5)1 : 0, 1 : 3
    6Celje (13)AEK Athens (3)2 : 0, 0 : 4
    7Sigma Olomouc (24)Mainz (7)0 : 2, 0 : 0
    8Rijeka (16)Strasbourg (1)1 : 1, 1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Shakhtar Donetsk (6)AZ Alkmaar (14)
    2Crystal Palace (10)Fiorentina (15)
    3Rayo Vallecano (5)AEK Athens (3)
    4Mainz (7)Strasbourg (1)

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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