Result
0:1
15/03/2026 at 09:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 25
- Referee: Stefanski D. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | FOX Sports 3 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Spain | GolStadium |
 Ukraine | Sport 2 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Tubi TV |
 World | Sport 2 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.69 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (195/290) | 83% (425/515) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.69 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.16 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (195/290) | 83% (425/515) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (28/58) | 39% (19/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 48% (45/93) | 65% (72/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (4/19) | 0% (0/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.67 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 82% (14/17) | 73% (11/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 0.16 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | 0.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 7', 0 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽,
- 14', Nalepa M. 🟨,
- 41', Moutinho J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Dziewiatowski M. ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
- 46', Kosidis M. ↓, Szabo L. ↑,
- 46', Grzybek M. ↓, Lucic L. ↑,
- 53', Kozubal A. 🟨,
- 64', Walemark P. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
- 64', Moutinho J. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
- 68', Corluka J. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
- 73', Rodriguez P. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
- 73', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
- 79', Orlikowski I. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
- 86', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
- 90+2', Monka W. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Zagłębie Lubin
24.6% | Draw
27.9% | Lech Poznań
47.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.79 ↓
(4.07) |
3.36 ↑
(3.13) |
1.98 ↓
(2.06) |
6.6%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Lech will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 19.1% – 73.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Zagłębie Lubin (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Zagłębie Lubin (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +2 - Zagłębie Lubin (1.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - Zagłębie Lubin (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Zagłębie Lubin (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Zagłębie Lubin (3.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lech Poznań will win (2 of 3 users predict this - 66.67%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Lech (votes: 2 - 22.2%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 1.
- Zagłębie Lubin has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Lech's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Zagłębie Lubin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Lech has had a series of home games.
- Lech is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Hladun D.
(Shoulder Injury)
Lawniczak A.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Lech: Douglas A.
(Ribs Injury)
Hakans D.
(Inactive)
Jagiello F.
(Injury)
Lisman K.
(Inactive)
Murawski R.
(Surgery)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:28. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Zagłębie Lubin won against Lech Poznań?
Zagłębie Lubin has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Zagłębie Lubin?
Lech Poznań has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań were as follows:
12.09.2025
Lech Poznań
-
Zagłębie Lubin
1:2
23.02.2025
Lech Poznań
-
Zagłębie Lubin
3:1
17.08.2024
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Lech Poznań
0:1
10.02.2024
Lech Poznań
-
Zagłębie Lubin
2:0
06.08.2023
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Lech Poznań
1:1
Latest results of Zagłębie Lubin
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 55:41 | 14 | 52 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 43:34 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 48:37 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Rakow | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 43:37 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Wisla Plock | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 32:28 | 4 | 45 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 43:41 | 2 | 44 |
| 7 | Zaglebie | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 43:36 | 7 | 44 |
| 8 | Radomiak Radom | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46:43 | 3 | 40 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 39:45 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | Piast Gliwice | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 39:40 | -1 | 39 |
| 11 | Lechia Gdansk | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 57:54 | 3 | 38 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 37:36 | 1 | 38 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 |
| 14 | Pogon Szczecin | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 40:45 | -5 | 38 |
| 15 | Legia | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 34:36 | -2 | 37 |
| 16 | Widzew Lodz | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36:37 | -1 | 36 |
| 17 | Arka Gdynia | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 31:54 | -23 | 34 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 36:55 | -19 | 28 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
