Result
1:1
10/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 33
- Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Belgium | DAZN 1 |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | DAZN 1, DAZN France |
 Germany | DAZN 1 Deutsch |
 India | GXR World |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | Caliente TV App, Caliente TV |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 11 |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.78 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (292/365) | 88% (491/558) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.68 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (292/365) | 88% (491/558) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (13/40) | 39% (18/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (64/104) | 64% (55/86) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (2/10) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 0.79 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 53% (9/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.68 | 1.22 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.32 | 0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 48', 1 - 0, Gboho Y. ⚽, McKenzie M. (A),
- 51', Thomasson A. 🟨,
- 57', Medina F. 🟨,
- 60', Mendy N. 🟨,
- 61', 1 - 1, El Aynaoui N. ⚽, Thomasson A. (A),
- 63', Donnum A. 🟨,
- 68', Machado D. ↓, Zaroury A. ↑,
- 70', Kamanzi W. ↓, Suazo G. ↑,
- 70', Magri F. ↓, Aboukhlal Z. ↑,
- 76', Thomasson A. ↓, Satriano M. ↑,
- 81', Pouilly T. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,
- 81', Koyalipou G. ↓, Said W. ↑,
- 87', Casseres C. 🟨,
- 87', Said W. 🟨,
- 89', Zaroury A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toulouse
41.9% | Draw
27.1% | Lens
31% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Toulouse - Lens Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.28 ↑
(2.25) |
3.52 ↓
(3.56) |
3.07 ↓
(3.12) |
4.8%
(4.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Toulouse - Lens?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Lens will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lens: 21.7% – 64.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 25%). Lens (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.
- Toulouse has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Lens has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Toulouse will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Toulouse: Cresswell C.
(Yellow Cards)
Edjouma N.
(Red Card)
Nicolaisen R.
(Calf Injury)
Schmidt N.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Lens: Aguilar R.
(Yellow Cards)
Aguilar R.
(Hamstring Injury)
Jhoanner Chavez
(Ankle Injury)
Labeau Lascary R.
(Knee Injury)
Petric D.
(Back Injury)
- There are questionable in Lens: Nzola M.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.3:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Lens?
Toulouse has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lens won against Toulouse?
Lens has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toulouse - Lens were as follows:
05.01.2025
Lens
-
Toulouse
0:1
28.01.2024
Toulouse
-
Lens
0:2
24.09.2023
Lens
-
Toulouse
2:1
02.05.2023
Toulouse
-
Lens
0:1
28.10.2022
Lens
-
Toulouse
3:0
Latest results of Toulouse
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Marseille | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21:7 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | PSG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Lens | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rennes | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11:12 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Nantes | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Lorient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:12 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4:12 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Metz | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5:20 | -15 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
