Result
2:0
03/04/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Virsliga - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Latvia | Sportacentrs TV, TV4 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 1.09 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 28% | 72% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (162/225) | 87% (516/593) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.09 | 0.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 35 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 24 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (162/225) | 87% (516/593) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (28/65) | 53% (18/34) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (41/64) | 73% (132/182) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 44% (4/9) | 29% (6/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 1.55 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (16/21) | 70% (16/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 64 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.54 | 1.09 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.54 | -0.91 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 6', 1 - 0, Ndjiki R. ⚽, Yakubu J. (A),
- 13', Mukwelle W. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 53', 2 - 0, Garzha A. ⚽, Ndjiki R. (A),
- 58', Iljins K. 🟨,
- 60', Patijcuks D. ↓, Patrikejevs I. ↑,
- 60', Traore A. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
- 60', Leidsman K. ↓, Amatkarijo C. ↑,
- 79', Fellipe Vieira ↓, Ogunniyi A. ↑,
- 83', Sylla M. ↓, Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. ↑,
- 85', Papa 🟨,
- 86', Martins M. ↓, Sorokins V. ↑,
- 87', Yakubu J. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
Chances of winning
BFC Daugavpils
19.6% | Draw
23.6% | Liepāja
56.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
BFC Daugavpils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that BFC Daugavpils's form might have worsened.Liepāja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Liepāja's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (+20.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for BFC Daugavpils, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (-20.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Liepāja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.74 ↑
(2.31) |
3.95 ↑
(3.9) |
1.64 ↓
(2.44) |
7.4%
(9.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Liepāja (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Liepāja will win
(8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 1.
- Daugavpils is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Liepāja has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Recently, Daugavpils has had a series of away games.
- Recently, Liepāja has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Liepāja is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Daugavpils won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 21:38. (average 1.1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Daugavpils won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.2:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has BFC Daugavpils won against Liepāja?
BFC Daugavpils has won 2 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Liepāja won against BFC Daugavpils?
Liepāja has won 7 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between BFC Daugavpils - Liepāja were as follows:
02.11.2025
BFC Daugavpils
-
Liepāja
1:2
09.08.2025
Liepāja
-
BFC Daugavpils
2:1
13.06.2025
Liepāja
-
BFC Daugavpils
1:1
19.04.2025
BFC Daugavpils
-
Liepāja
4:2
09.11.2024
Liepāja
-
BFC Daugavpils
3:3
Latest results of BFC Daugavpils
Latest results of Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Auda | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | RFS | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:2 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Riga FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15:5 | 10 | 9 |
| 4 | Super Nova | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Grobina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | BFC Daugavpils | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | FK Liepaja | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | Jelgava | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:12 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 2 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:8 | -5 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga
