Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1
Football French Ligue 1 Lille - Paris Saint-Germain
Result
1:1
05/10/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 7
  • Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 2
armeniaArmeniaSetanta Sports 2
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 2
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 4
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 Sport, Viaplay
europeEuropeSetanta Sports 2 Baltic
finlandFinlandViaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 3
italyItalyLigue 1 Pass, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports 2
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3, ART Sport 3
kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 2
maltaMaltaTVM Sport+
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 2
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalSport TV3
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 2
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 2
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 2
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 2
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.681.44
Ball Possession
38%62%
Total shots
917
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
35
Passes
82% (314/382)91% (601/658)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
0.681.44
xG on target (xGOT)
0.401.37
Total shots
917
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
27
Blocked Shots
45
Shots inside the Box
88
Shots outside the Box
19
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
35
Touches in opposition box
3122
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1211
Passes
82% (314/382)91% (601/658)
Long passes
58% (25/43)63% (20/32)
Passes in final third
69% (75/108)76% (100/131)
Crosses
40% (6/15)20% (2/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.380.76
Throw-ins
1712
Fouls
1112
Tackles
50% (10/20)67% (6/9)
Duels won
4436
Clearances
2117
Interceptions
126
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
1.370.40
Goals prevented
0.37-0.60

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 45+1', Hernandez L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 59', Mayulu S. ↓, Vitinha ↑,
  • 59', Barcola B. ↓, Mendes N. ↑,
  • 59', Mbaye I. ↓, Hakimi A. ↑,
  • 66', 0 - 1, Mendes N. ⚽,
  • 66', Bentaleb N. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
  • 66', Haraldsson H. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
  • 68', Hernandez L. ↓, Zabarnyi I. ↑,
  • 76', Meunier T. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
  • 76', Giroud O. ↓, Igamane H. ↑,
  • 81', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
  • 85', 1 - 1, Mbappe E. ⚽, Igamane H. (A),
  • 88', Andre B. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Lille
22.9%		Draw
24.7%		Paris Saint-Germain
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
20.2% 22% 57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3% 21% 60.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+8.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paris Saint-Germain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Lille - Paris Saint-Germain Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.17 ↓
    (4.7)    		 3.87 ↓
    (4.32)    		 1.84 ↑
    (1.64)    		 4.3%
    (5.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Lille - Paris Saint-Germain?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (48 of 56 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 76.54% – 94.88%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Paris Saint-Germain will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 0.
    • In recent matches, Lille has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • PSG is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, PSG is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Lille: Alexsandro (Thigh Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in PSG: Dembele O. (Thigh Injury) Doue D. (Calf Injury) Kamara N. (International duty) Kvaratskhelia K. (Muscle Injury) Marquinhos (Thigh Injury) Neves J. (Injury) Ruiz F. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 21:50. (average 1.1:2.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 1.1:2.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lille - Paris Saint-Germain were as follows:
    01.03.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Lille 4:1
    01.09.2024 Lille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:3
    10.02.2024 Paris Saint-Germain - Lille 3:1
    17.12.2023 Lille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:1
    19.02.2023 Paris Saint-Germain - Lille 4:3
    Latest results of Lille
    02.10.2025 Roma - Lille 0:1 ✺
    28.09.2025 Lille - Lyon 0:1 ✺
    25.09.2025 Lille - Brann 2:1 ✺
    20.09.2025 Lens - Lille 3:0 ✺
    14.09.2025 Lille - Toulouse 2:1 ✺
    Latest results of Paris Saint-Germain
    01.10.2025 Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain 1:2 ✺
    27.09.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Auxerre 2:0 ✺
    22.09.2025 Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:0 ✺
    17.09.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Atalanta 4:0 ✺
    14.09.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Lens 2:0 ✺
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Marseille860221:71418
    2PSG852116:8817
    3Strasbourg851217:10716
    4Lens851212:7516
    5Lyon850311:8315
    6Lille842216:10614
    7Monaco842217:13414
    8Toulouse841315:12313
    9Rennes825111:12-111
    10Nice832312:14-211
    11Paris FC831413:15-210
    12Brest823314:1409
    13Lorient822412:19-78
    14Auxerre82157:12-57
    15Nantes81345:9-46
    16Le Havre813410:16-66
    17Angers81344:12-86
    18Metz80265:20-152

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

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