Result
2:1
14/09/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 4
- Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4 |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Bulgaria | Nova Sport |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 China | Migu |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Israel | 5 LIVE Israel |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Kosovo | ART Sport 6 |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.14 | 0.94 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 70% | 30% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (480/553) | 74% (170/230) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.14 | 0.94 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.85 | 1.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (480/553) | 74% (170/230) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (20/39) | 38% (18/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (93/132) | 63% (46/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (9/27) | 13% (2/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.24 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 50% (7/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.47 | 1.85 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.47 | -0.15 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 23', Donnum A. 🟨,
- 45+2', Alexsandro ↓, Mbemba Ch. ↑,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 51', 0 - 1, Magri F. ⚽,
- 55', Hidalgo S. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
- 57', Restes G. 🟨,
- 62', Mukau N. ↓, Igamane H. ↑,
- 72', Messali R. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
- 72', Francis A. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
- 80', Vossah A. 🟥,
- 81', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
- 81', Correia F. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
- 81', Bouaddi A. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
- 83', Giroud O. 🟨,
- 86', Martinez C. 🟨,
- 88', Magri F. 🟨,
- 89', Magri F. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
- 89', Methalie D. ↓, Sidibe D. ↑,
- 90', 1 - 1, Bentaleb N. (Pen),
- 90+6', Mbemba Ch. 🟨,
- 90+9', 2 - 1, Mbappe E. ⚽, Sahraoui O. (A),
Chances of winning
Lille
51.9% | Draw
25.2% | Toulouse
22.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Lille - Toulouse Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.84 ↑
(1.8) |
3.79 ↓
(3.84) |
4.17 ↓
(4.4) |
4.8%
(4.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Lille - Toulouse?
Users Predictions:
41 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 30 - 73.2%). Toulouse will win (votes: 3 - 7.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 19.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 59.6% – 86.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Lille (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.
- Lille is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Lille is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Lille: Caillard M.
(Injury)
Meunier T.
(Groin Injury)
Toure O.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Schmidt N.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Lille: Santos T.
(Knee Injury)
- We predict that Lille will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 1.6:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Lille won against Toulouse?
Lille has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Lille?
Toulouse has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lille - Toulouse were as follows:
12.04.2025
Toulouse
-
Lille
1:2
05.10.2024
Lille
-
Toulouse
2:1
25.02.2024
Toulouse
-
Lille
3:1
12.11.2023
Lille
-
Toulouse
1:1
18.03.2023
Toulouse
-
Lille
0:2
Latest results of Toulouse
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Marseille | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21:7 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | PSG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Lens | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rennes | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11:12 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Lorient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:12 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Nantes | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5:9 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4:12 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Metz | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5:20 | -15 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
