Lille vs Toulouse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1 Lille - Toulouse
Result
2:1
14/09/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 4
  • Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4
austriaAustriaDAZN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 4
bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chinaChinaMigu
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
israelIsrael5 LIVE Israel
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kosovoKosovoART Sport 6
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
portugalPortugalSport TV3
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport 1
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLigue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.140.94
Ball Possession
70%30%
Total shots
219
Shots on target
54
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
76
Passes
87% (480/553)74% (170/230)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.140.94
xG on target (xGOT)
1.851.47
Total shots
219
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
83
Blocked Shots
82
Shots inside the Box
155
Shots outside the Box
64
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
76
Touches in opposition box
3015
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
911
Passes
87% (480/553)74% (170/230)
Long passes
51% (20/39)38% (18/48)
Passes in final third
70% (93/132)63% (46/73)
Crosses
33% (9/27)13% (2/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.260.24
Throw-ins
1713
Fouls
1210
Tackles
71% (12/17)50% (7/14)
Duels won
4248
Clearances
2035
Interceptions
916
Errors leading to shot
21
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
1.471.85
Goals prevented
0.47-0.15

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 23', Donnum A. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Alexsandro , Mbemba Ch. ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 51', 0 - 1, Magri F. ,
  • 55', Hidalgo S. , Messali R. ,
  • 57', Restes G. 🟨,
  • 62', Mukau N. , Igamane H. ,
  • 72', Messali R. , Kamanzi W. ,
  • 72', Francis A. , Vossah A. ,
  • 80', Vossah A. 🟥,
  • 81', Fernandez-Pardo M. , Mbappe E. ,
  • 81', Correia F. , Sahraoui O. ,
  • 81', Bouaddi A. , Bentaleb N. ,
  • 83', Giroud O. 🟨,
  • 86', Martinez C. 🟨,
  • 88', Magri F. 🟨,
  • 89', Magri F. , Sauer M. ,
  • 89', Methalie D. , Sidibe D. ,
  • 90', 1 - 1, Bentaleb N. (Pen),
  • 90+6', Mbemba Ch. 🟨,
  • 90+9', 2 - 1, Mbappe E. , Sahraoui O. (A),

Chances of winning


Lille
51.9%
Draw
25.2%
Toulouse
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.3% 24.9% 21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5% 24.4% 21.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)
  • Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
  • Lille - Toulouse Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.84
    (1.8)
    3.79
    (3.84)
    4.17
    (4.4)
    4.8%
    (4.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Lille - Toulouse?
  • Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 30 - 73.2%). Toulouse will win (votes: 3 - 7.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 19.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 59.6%86.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Lille (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.
    • Lille is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Lille is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Meunier T. (Groin Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lille: Santos T. (Knee Injury)
    • We predict that Lille will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 1.6:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lille - Toulouse were as follows:
    12.04.2025 Toulouse - Lille 1:2
    05.10.2024 Lille - Toulouse 2:1
    25.02.2024 Toulouse - Lille 3:1
    12.11.2023 Lille - Toulouse 1:1
    18.03.2023 Toulouse - Lille 0:2
    Latest results of Lille
    30.08.2025 Lorient - Lille 1:7
    24.08.2025 Lille - Monaco 1:0
    17.08.2025 Brest - Lille 3:3
    09.08.2025 West Ham United - Lille 1:1
    06.08.2025 Lille - Venezia 3:0
    Latest results of Toulouse
    24.08.2025 Toulouse - Brest 2:0
    16.08.2025 Nice - Toulouse 0:1
    10.08.2025 Toulouse - Sevilla 1:1
    02.08.2025 Stuttgart - Toulouse 4:0
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG650112:4815
    2Lyon65018:3515
    3Marseille640212:5712
    4Monaco640214:10412
    5Strasbourg64029:7212
    6Lille631213:9410
    7Lens63128:5310
    8Paris FC731312:13-110
    9Rennes62317:8-19
    10Brest621311:1107
    11Toulouse62139:11-27
    12Nice62137:10-37
    13Lorient72149:16-77
    14Auxerre62044:8-46
    15Le Havre61236:8-25
    16Nantes61235:7-25
    17Angers61233:6-35
    18Metz60245:13-82

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