Result
1:1
07/03/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 25
- Referee: Melnjak A. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 0.23 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (271/348) | 80% (373/464) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 0.23 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (271/348) | 80% (373/464) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (31/54) | 39% (19/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (60/89) | 63% (89/141) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (4/19) | 19% (3/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.36 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 74% (20/27) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.72 | -0.75 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 28', Mamut I. 🟨,
- 30', Mamut I. ↓, Juric S. ↑,
- 30', 1 - 0, Sabra I. ⚽, Trajkovski A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 63', Skaricic L. ↓, Sikosek G. ↑,
- 63', Borsic A. ↓, Vuk M. ↑,
- 63', Mamic L. ↓, Canjuga I. ↑,
- 72', Boskovic B. 🟨,
- 73', 1 - 1, Vuk M. ⚽, Sikosek G. (A),
- 75', Trajkovski A. ↓, Subotic M. ↑,
- 75', Belcar L. ↓, Katic I. ↑,
- 80', Maglica F. ↓, Lesjak S. ↑,
- 81', Kolinger D. 🟨,
- 83', Kolinger D. ↓, Susak M. ↑,
- 89', Sabra I. ↓, Rog M. ↑,
- 90+2', Latkovic A. 🟨,
- 90+6', Vesovic M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Lokomotiva Zagreb
44% | Draw
28.3% | Varaždin
27.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lokomotiva Zagreb has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)Varaždin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiva Zagreb than the current prediction. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
Lokomotiva Zagreb - Varaždin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.11 ↓
(2.34) |
3.28 ↑
(3.23) |
3.36 ↑
(2.87) |
7.6%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Lokomotiva Zagreb - Varaždin?
Users Predictions:
Lokomotiva Zagreb will win
(14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lokomotiva Zagreb will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiva won 3.
- In recent matches, Lokomotiva has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Varaždin has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Lokomotiva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Varaždin has had a series of home games.
- Lokomotiva could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Lokomotiva: Katic I.
(Inactive)
Leovac M.
(Injury)
Mbacke D.
(Injury)
Sigali L.
(Inactive)
Virgili D.
(Inactive)
Vukovic D.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Varaždin: Barac M.
(Inactive)
Ilinkovic S.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiva won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lokomotiva won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Lokomotiva Zagreb won against Varaždin?
Lokomotiva Zagreb has won 4 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Varaždin won against Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Varaždin has won 4 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lokomotiva Zagreb - Varaždin were as follows:
07.12.2025
Varaždin
-
Lokomotiva Zagreb
4:2
20.09.2025
Lokomotiva Zagreb
-
Varaždin
1:0
26.04.2025
Varaždin
-
Lokomotiva Zagreb
2:1
21.02.2025
Lokomotiva Zagreb
-
Varaždin
1:0
18.01.2025
Lokomotiva Zagreb
-
Varaždin
3:2
Latest results of Lokomotiva Zagreb
Latest results of Varaždin
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Din. Zagreb | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 63:22 | 41 | 60 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 39:25 | 14 | 50 |
| 3 | Rijeka | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 37:27 | 10 | 38 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 33:36 | -3 | 37 |
| 5 | Slaven Belupo | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 37:42 | -5 | 35 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31:36 | -5 | 33 |
| 7 | Lok. Zagreb | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31:40 | -9 | 30 |
| 8 | Gorica | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29:38 | -9 | 28 |
| 9 | Osijek | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 22:36 | -14 | 24 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26:46 | -20 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
