Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

10/04/2025 at 10:20 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/8-finals

Match Stats


Aces
3	0
Double Faults
2	1
1st Serve Percentage
68%	74%
1st Serve Points Won
67% (31/46)	73% (27/37)
2nd Serve Points Won
32% (7/22)	77% (10/13)
Break Points Saved
70% (7/10)	0% (0/0)
1st Return Points Won
27% (10/37)	33% (15/46)
2nd Return Points Won
23% (3/13)	68% (15/22)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/0)	30% (3/10)
Winners
18	9
Unforced Errors
44	11
Net Points Won
64% (7/11)	50% (2/4)
Service Points Won
56% (38/68)	74% (37/50)
Return Points Won
26% (13/50)	44% (30/68)
Total Points Won
43% (51/118)	57% (67/118)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
67% (6/9)	100% (9/9)
Return Games Won
0% (0/9)	33% (3/9)
Total Games Won
33% (6/18)	67% (12/18)

Chances of winning

Matteo Berrettini
54.3%

Lorenzo Musetti
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Berrettini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Matteo Berrettini - Lorenzo Musetti Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.59)		2.07 ↓ (2.21)	5.5% (8.3%)

What is the prediction for Matteo Berrettini - Lorenzo Musetti?

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 22 - 57.9%). Musetti will win (votes: 16 - 42.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Berrettini: 42.2% – 73.6%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 5 - 50%). Musetti (votes: 5 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 22 Games - over (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 34. Musetti is ranked ATP: 16.
Right away both players are in a satisfying form.
Berrettini could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.
Last 2 head-to-head matches Berrettini won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Matteo Berrettini won against Lorenzo Musetti?

Matteo Berrettini has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Lorenzo Musetti won against Matteo Berrettini?

Lorenzo Musetti has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Matteo Berrettini - Lorenzo Musetti were as follows:

15.06.2024 Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Berrettini 0:2

23.10.2022 Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Berrettini 2:0

Latest results of Matteo Berrettini

08.04.2025 Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini 1:2 ✺

07.04.2025 Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini 0:2 ✺

27.03.2025 Taylor Harry Fritz - Matteo Berrettini 2:1 ✺

25.03.2025 Alex De Minaur - Matteo Berrettini 0:2 ✺

24.03.2025 Matteo Berrettini - Zizou Bergs 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Lorenzo Musetti

09.04.2025 Jiri Lehecka - Lorenzo Musetti 1:2 ✺

07.04.2025 Bu Yunchaokete - Lorenzo Musetti 1:2 ✺

25.03.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Novak Djokovic 0:2 ✺

23.03.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Felix Aliassime-Auger 2:1 ✺

21.03.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Quentin Halys 2:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/32-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Bye
2	Navone M. (Q)	Berrettini M.	0 : 2
3	Lehecka J.	Korda S.	2 : 0
4	Bu Y. (Q)	Musetti L. (13)	1 : 2
5	Rune H. (RET.) (10)	Borges N.	0 : 1
6	Sonego L.	Martinez P.	1 : 2
7	Thompson J.	Mpetshi Perricard G.	2 : 0
8	Bye	Tsitsipas S. (6)
9	Djokovic N. (3)	Bye
10	Wawrinka S. (WC)	Tabilo A.	1 : 2
11	Struff J-L.	Vacherot V. (WC)	0 : 2
12	Jarry N.	Dimitrov G. (15)	0 : 2
13	Medvedev D. (9)	Khachanov K.	2 : 1
14	Muller A.	Ugo Carabelli C. (Q)	2 : 0
15	Machac T.	Baez S.	2 : 1
16	Bye	De Minaur A. (8)
17	Draper J. (5)	Bye
18	Giron M.	Shapovalov D.	2 : 0
19	Etcheverry T. M.	Moutet C. (Q)	2 : 1
20	Davidovich Fokina A.	Shelton B. (11)	2 : 1
21	Tiafoe F. (14)	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 1
22	Popyrin A.	Humbert U.	2 : 1
23	Bautista-Agut R.	Nakashima B.	2 : 0
24	Bye	Ruud C. (4)
25	Rublev A. (7)	Bye
26	Monfils G.	Marozsan F. (Q)	2 : 1
27	Lajovic D. (Q)	Cobolli F.	0 : 2
28	Griekspoor T.	Fils A. (12)	1 : 2
29	Auger-Aliassime F. (16)	Altmaier D. (Q)	0 : 2
30	Arnaldi M.	Gasquet R. (WC)	1 : 2
31	Fognini F. (WC)	Cerundolo F.	0 : 2
32	Bye	Alcaraz C. (2)

1/16-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Berrettini M.	1 : 2
2	Lehecka J.	Musetti L. (13)	1 : 2
3	Borges N.	Martinez P.	2 : 1
4	Thompson J.	Tsitsipas S. (6)	1 : 2
5	Djokovic N. (3)	Tabilo A.	0 : 2
6	Vacherot V.	Dimitrov G. (15)	1 : 2
7	Medvedev D. (9)	Muller A.	2 : 1
8	Machac T.	De Minaur A. (8)	1 : 2
9	Draper J. (5)	Giron M.	2 : 0
10	Etcheverry T. M.	Davidovich Fokina A.	0 : 2
11	Tiafoe F. (14)	Popyrin A.	1 : 2
12	Bautista-Agut R.	Ruud C. (4)	0 : 2
13	Rublev A. (7)	Monfils G.	2 : 0
14	Cobolli F.	Fils A. (12)	0 : 2
15	Altmaier D.	Gasquet R.	2 : 1
16	Cerundolo F.	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Berrettini M.	Musetti L. (13)	0 : 2
2	Borges N.	Tsitsipas S. (6)	0 : 2
3	Tabilo A.	Dimitrov G. (15)	1 : 2
4	Medvedev D. (9)	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 2
5	Draper J. (5)	Davidovich Fokina A.	1 : 2
6	Popyrin A.	Ruud C. (4)	2 : 1
7	Rublev A. (7)	Fils A. (12)	0 : 2
8	Altmaier D.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Musetti L. (13)	Tsitsipas S. (6)	2 : 1
2	Dimitrov G. (15)	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 2
3	Davidovich Fokina A.	Popyrin A.	2 : 0
4	Fils A. (12)	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Musetti L. (13)	De Minaur A. (8)	2 : 1
2	Davidovich Fokina A.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

Final

1

Musetti L. (13)

Alcaraz C. (2)

1 : 2