Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

10/04/2025 at 10:20 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/8-finals

Match Stats


Aces
3	0
Double Faults
2	1
1st Serve Percentage
68%	74%
1st Serve Points Won
67% (31/46)	73% (27/37)
2nd Serve Points Won
32% (7/22)	77% (10/13)
Break Points Saved
70% (7/10)	0% (0/0)
1st Return Points Won
27% (10/37)	33% (15/46)
2nd Return Points Won
23% (3/13)	68% (15/22)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/0)	30% (3/10)
Winners
18	9
Unforced Errors
44	11
Net Points Won
64% (7/11)	50% (2/4)
Service Points Won
56% (38/68)	74% (37/50)
Return Points Won
26% (13/50)	44% (30/68)
Total Points Won
43% (51/118)	57% (67/118)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
67% (6/9)	100% (9/9)
Return Games Won
0% (0/9)	33% (3/9)
Total Games Won
33% (6/18)	67% (12/18)

Chances of winning

Matteo Berrettini
54.3%

Lorenzo Musetti
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Berrettini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Matteo Berrettini - Lorenzo Musetti Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.59)		2.07 ↓ (2.21)	5.5% (8.3%)

What is the prediction for Matteo Berrettini - Lorenzo Musetti?

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 22 - 57.9%). Musetti will win (votes: 16 - 42.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Berrettini: 42.2% – 73.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Musetti (votes: 10 - 43.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22 Games - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 8.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 Games - Berrettini (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 14 - 58.3%). Musetti (votes: 10 - 41.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 34. Musetti is ranked ATP: 16.
Right away both players are in a satisfying form.
Berrettini could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.
Last 2 head-to-head matches Berrettini won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Matteo Berrettini won against Lorenzo Musetti?

Matteo Berrettini has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Lorenzo Musetti won against Matteo Berrettini?

Lorenzo Musetti has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Matteo Berrettini - Lorenzo Musetti were as follows:

15.06.2024 Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Berrettini 0:2

23.10.2022 Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Berrettini 2:0

Latest results of Matteo Berrettini

08.04.2025 Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini 1:2 ✺

07.04.2025 Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini 0:2 ✺

27.03.2025 Taylor Harry Fritz - Matteo Berrettini 2:1 ✺

25.03.2025 Alex De Minaur - Matteo Berrettini 0:2 ✺

24.03.2025 Matteo Berrettini - Zizou Bergs 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Lorenzo Musetti

09.04.2025 Jiri Lehecka - Lorenzo Musetti 1:2 ✺

07.04.2025 Bu Yunchaokete - Lorenzo Musetti 1:2 ✺

25.03.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Novak Djokovic 0:2 ✺

23.03.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Felix Aliassime-Auger 2:1 ✺

21.03.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Quentin Halys 2:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/32-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Bye
2	Baez S.	Wawrinka S. (WC)	2 : 0
3	Etcheverry T. M.	Dimitrov G.	2 : 1
4	Atmane T.	Quinn E. (LL)	2 : 0
5	Lehecka J. (11)	Nava E. (Q)	2 : 1
6	Fucsovics M.	Tabilo A.	0 : 2
7	Monfils G. (WC)	Griekspoor T.	2 : 1
8	Bye	Bublik A. (8)
9	Musetti L. (4)	Bye
10	Vacherot V.	Cerundolo J. M. (Q)	2 : 1
11	Dzumhur D. (LL)	Marozsan F.	0 : 2
12	Hurkacz H. (PR)	Darderi L. (15)	2 : 1
13	Cobolli F. (10)	Comesana F. (Q)	2 : 1
14	Shapovalov D.	Blockx A. (Q)	1 : 2
15	Norrie C.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 1
16	Bye	De Minaur A. (5)
17	Medvedev D. (7)	Bye
18	Bautista-Agut R. (RET.) (LL)	Berrettini M. (WC)	0 : 0
19	Fonseca J.	Diallo G.	2 : 0
20	Rinderknech A.	Khachanov K. (12)	2 : 0
21	Rublev A. (13)	Borges N.	2 : 1
22	Bergs Z.	Mannarino A.	2 : 0
23	Garin C. (Q)	Arnaldi M. (LL)	2 : 0
24	Bye	Zverev A. (3)
25	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Bye
26	Cilic M.	Shevchenko A. (Q)	2 : 0
27	Moutet C.	Muller A. (Q)	2 : 0
28	Popyrin A.	Ruud C. (9)	0 : 2
29	Cerundolo F. (16)	Tsitsipas S.	2 : 0
30	Altmaier D.	Machac T.	1 : 2
31	Kouame M. (WC)	Humbert U.	0 : 2
32	Bye	Sinner J. (2)

1/16-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Baez S.	2 : 0
2	Etcheverry T. M.	Atmane T.	2 : 1
3	Lehecka J. (11)	Tabilo A.	2 : 1
4	Monfils G.	Bublik A. (8)	0 : 2
5	Musetti L. (4)	Vacherot V.	0 : 2
6	Marozsan F.	Hurkacz H.	0 : 2
7	Cobolli F. (10)	Blockx A.	0 : 2
8	Norrie C.	De Minaur A. (5)	1 : 2
9	Medvedev D. (7)	Berrettini M.	0 : 2
10	Fonseca J.	Rinderknech A.	2 : 1
11	Rublev A. (13)	Bergs Z.	0 : 2
12	Garin C.	Zverev A. (3)	1 : 2
13	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Cilic M.	2 : 0
14	Moutet C.	Ruud C. (9)	0 : 2
15	Cerundolo F. (16)	Machac T.	0 : 2
16	Humbert U.	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Etcheverry T. M.	2 : 1
2	Lehecka J. (11)	Bublik A. (8)	0 : 2
3	Vacherot V.	Hurkacz H.	2 : 1
4	Blockx A.	De Minaur A. (5)	0 : 2
5	Berrettini M.	Fonseca J.	0 : 2
6	Bergs Z.	Zverev A. (3)	0 : 2
7	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Ruud C. (RET.) (9)	1 : 0
8	Machac T.	Sinner J. (2)	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Bublik A. (8)	2 : 0
2	Vacherot V.	De Minaur A. (5)	2 : 1
3	Fonseca J.	Zverev A. (3)	1 : 2
4	Auger-Aliassime F. (6)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Alcaraz C. (1)	Vacherot V.	2 : 0
2	Zverev A. (3)	Sinner J. (2)	0 : 2

Final

1

Alcaraz C. (1)

Sinner J. (2)

0 : 2