Ajaccio vs Lorient – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

02/05/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Michel Moretti Stadium (Ajaccio).

Ligue 2 - Round 33
Referee: Thual O. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 9, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.73	1.12
Ball Possession
33%	67%
Total shots
6	19
Shots on target
3	5
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
0	6
Passes
71% (215/302)	86% (517/599)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.73	1.12
xG on target (xGOT)
1.07	0.98
Total shots
6	19
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
3	8
Blocked Shots
0	6
Shots inside the Box
5	7
Shots outside the Box
1	12
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
0	6
Touches in opposition box
9	20
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
3	0
Free Kicks
11	8
Passes
71% (215/302)	86% (517/599)
Long passes
37% (27/73)	29% (10/34)
Passes in final third
54% (25/46)	70% (117/166)
Crosses
20% (1/5)	23% (5/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.72	0.95
Throw-ins
19	19
Fouls
8	11
Tackles
63% (12/19)	63% (5/8)
Duels won
49	51
Clearances
25	6
Interceptions
8	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	1
xGOT faced
0.98	1.07
Goals prevented
-0.02	-0.93

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Anziani J. ⚽, Strata T. (A),
42', Mendy F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tosin A. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,
63', Ponceau J. ↓, Pagis P. ↑,
63', Makengo J. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
63', Soumano S. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
66', Huard M. ↓, Ayessa J. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Toure B. ⚽, Kouassi A. (A),
70', Mvuka Mugisha J. ↓, Diarra S. ↑,
71', Toure B. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
72', Mangani T. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,
80', Kalulu G. 🟨,
84', 2 - 1, Pagis P. ⚽, Bamba M. (A),
89', Ayessa J. 🟨,
90+3', Bamba M. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/mw3f7hsm

Chances of winning

Ajaccio
15.8%

Draw
23.1%

Lorient
61.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.6%

23.1%

61.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

22.6%

62.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajaccio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Ajaccio - Lorient Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.94 ↑ (5.93)	4.07 ↑ (4)	1.54 ↑ (1.51)	6.5% (8.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Ajaccio - Lorient?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Lorient will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorient: 40% – 93.4%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Ajaccio (votes: 2 - 40%). Lorient (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).
Lorient is Qualified for Ligue 1
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajaccio won 1.
In recent matches, Ajaccio has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Lorient is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
In this match, Lorient is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Ajaccio: Junior Pereira da Silva E. (Injury) Soumano M. (Injury) Touzghar Y. (Arm Injury) Youssouf M. (Injury)
There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Igor Silva (Yellow Cards) Katseris P. (Hip Injury)
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ajaccio won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:22. (average 0.8:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Ajaccio won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Ajaccio won against Lorient?

Ajaccio has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Lorient won against Ajaccio?

Lorient has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Ajaccio - Lorient were as follows:

27.09.2024 Lorient - Ajaccio 3:0

19.02.2023 Lorient - Ajaccio 3:0

04.09.2022 Ajaccio - Lorient 0:1

Latest results of Ajaccio

25.04.2025 Annecy - Ajaccio 2:0 ✺

18.04.2025 Ajaccio - Pau 1:1 ✺

11.04.2025 Troyes - Ajaccio 0:0 ✺

04.04.2025 Ajaccio - Amiens 2:1 ✺

28.03.2025 Martigues - Ajaccio 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Lorient

26.04.2025 Lorient - Caen 4:0 ✺

21.04.2025 Annecy - Lorient 0:0 ✺

12.04.2025 Guingamp - Lorient 1:2 ✺

05.04.2025 Lorient - Pau 5:0 ✺

29.03.2025 Grenoble - Lorient 1:2 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes	24	13	6	5	38:25	13	45
2	St Etienne	24	13	4	7	41:29	12	43
3	Reims	24	11	8	5	37:23	14	41
4	Le Mans	24	10	10	4	30:24	6	40
5	Red Star	24	11	7	6	30:25	5	40
6	Dunkerque	24	10	8	6	40:25	15	38
7	Annecy	24	10	6	8	32:25	7	36
8	Rodez	24	9	9	6	31:31	0	36
9	Montpellier	24	10	4	10	28:25	3	34
10	Guingamp	24	9	7	8	35:36	-1	34
11	Pau FC	24	9	7	8	37:39	-2	34
12	Grenoble	24	6	10	8	24:29	-5	28
13	Nancy	24	7	5	12	21:32	-11	26
14	Boulogne	24	7	5	12	25:36	-11	26
15	Clermont	24	6	7	11	27:32	-5	25
16	Amiens	24	6	5	13	28:39	-11	23
17	Bastia	24	3	9	12	12:25	-13	18
18	Laval	24	3	9	12	18:34	-16	18

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National