Result
1:2
05/10/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 7
- Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 6, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Italy | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Kazakhstan | Setanta Sports |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 6 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 0.98 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 70% | 30% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (506/584) | 72% (182/254) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 0.98 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 1.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (506/584) | 72% (182/254) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (25/50) | 46% (18/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (47/78) | 60% (46/77) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/23) | 25% (3/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 1.00 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.21 | 0.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.79 | -0.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 24', 1 - 0, Fofana M. ⚽, Satriano M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Kamanzi W. ↓, Methalie D. ↑,
- 46', Sauer M. ↓, Francis A. ↑,
- 51', Francis A. 🟨,
- 59', Donnum A. 🟨,
- 71', Magri F. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
- 78', Karabec A. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
- 78', Casseres C. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
- 78', Sidibe D. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
- 80', McKenzie M. 🟨,
- 87', 1 - 1, Emersonn ⚽, Gboho Y. (A),
- 90+2', Tessmann T. ↓, Sulc P. ↑,
- 90+4', Moreira A. 🟨,
- 90+6', 1 - 2, Emersonn ⚽, Vossah A. (A),
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/y3bvrrtd
Chances of winning
Lyon
49.3% | Draw
27.1% | Toulouse
23.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Lyon - Toulouse Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.94 ↑
(1.82) |
3.54 ↓
(3.76) |
4.06 ↓
(4.21) |
4.5%
(5.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Lyon - Toulouse?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Lyon (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Lyon (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Toulouse (2.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Lyon (3.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Lyon (1.74) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Users Predictions:
Lyon will win
(37 of 42 users predict this - 88.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.31% – 97.89%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lyon will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 18 high ROI users predict this event. Lyon (votes: 17 - 94.4%). Toulouse (votes: 1 - 5.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 4.
- Lyon is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Toulouse is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Lyon is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Lyon: Descamps R.
(Wrist Injury)
Mangala O.
(Knee Injury)
Nuamah E.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Messali R.
(Injury)
Schmidt N.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Lyon: Abner Vinicius
(Groin Injury)
Ghezzal R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 15 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 48:17. (average 2.4:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:3. (average 2.8:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Lyon won against Toulouse?
Lyon has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Lyon?
Toulouse has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lyon - Toulouse were as follows:
18.01.2025
Lyon
-
Toulouse
0:0
29.09.2024
Toulouse
-
Lyon
1:2
15.03.2024
Toulouse
-
Lyon
2:3
10.12.2023
Lyon
-
Toulouse
3:0
14.04.2023
Toulouse
-
Lyon
1:2
Latest results of Toulouse
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 58:22 | 36 | 60 |
| 2 | Lens | 27 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 54:24 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Marseille | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 54:35 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Lyon | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 47 |
| 5 | Lille | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 42:34 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Monaco | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Rennes | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 43:37 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43:33 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38:32 | 6 | 37 |
| 10 | Lorient | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 37:41 | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Brest | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 34:39 | -5 | 36 |
| 12 | Angers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 32 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 32:43 | -11 | 31 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 22:35 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 | Nice | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:52 | -20 | 27 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 22:36 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Nantes | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:45 | -21 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 25:60 | -35 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
