Lyon vs Toulouse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1 Lyon - Toulouse
Result
1:2
05/10/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 7
  • Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 4
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 6, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
italyItalyLigue 1 Pass
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
portugalPortugalSport TV3
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 6
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.020.98
Ball Possession
70%30%
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
34
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
85
Passes
87% (506/584)72% (182/254)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
1.020.98
xG on target (xGOT)
0.861.21
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
34
Shots off target
74
Blocked Shots
36
Shots inside the Box
1010
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
85
Touches in opposition box
2023
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1713
Passes
87% (506/584)72% (182/254)
Long passes
50% (25/50)46% (18/39)
Passes in final third
60% (47/78)60% (46/77)
Crosses
17% (4/23)25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.681.00
Throw-ins
1816
Fouls
1317
Tackles
67% (8/12)70% (7/10)
Duels won
5050
Clearances
1234
Interceptions
516
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
1.210.86
Goals prevented
-0.79-0.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Fofana M. , Satriano M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 46', Kamanzi W. , Methalie D. ,
  • 46', Sauer M. , Francis A. ,
  • 51', Francis A. 🟨,
  • 59', Donnum A. 🟨,
  • 71', Magri F. , Emersonn ,
  • 78', Karabec A. , Moreira A. ,
  • 78', Casseres C. , Vossah A. ,
  • 78', Sidibe D. , Hidalgo S. ,
  • 80', McKenzie M. 🟨,
  • 87', 1 - 1, Emersonn , Gboho Y. (A),
  • 90+2', Tessmann T. , Sulc P. ,
  • 90+4', Moreira A. 🟨,
  • 90+6', 1 - 2, Emersonn , Vossah A. (A),

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/y3bvrrtd

Chances of winning


Lyon
49.3%
Draw
27.1%
Toulouse
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.2% 25.3% 22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3% 24.8% 22%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
  • Lyon - Toulouse Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.94
    (1.82)
    3.54
    (3.76)
    4.06
    (4.21)
    4.5%
    (5.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Lyon - Toulouse?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.25 - Lyon (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Lyon will win (37 of 42 users predict this - 88.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 78.31%97.89%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lyon will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 4.
    • Lyon is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Toulouse is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Lyon is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Lyon: Descamps R. (Wrist Injury) Mangala O. (Knee Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lyon: Abner Vinicius (Groin Injury) Ghezzal R. (Inactive)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 15 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 48:17. (average 2.4:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:3. (average 2.8:0.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lyon - Toulouse were as follows:
    18.01.2025 Lyon - Toulouse 0:0
    29.09.2024 Toulouse - Lyon 1:2
    15.03.2024 Toulouse - Lyon 2:3
    10.12.2023 Lyon - Toulouse 3:0
    14.04.2023 Toulouse - Lyon 1:2
    Latest results of Lyon
    02.10.2025 Lyon - Red Bull Salzburg 2:0
    28.09.2025 Lille - Lyon 0:1
    25.09.2025 Utrecht - Lyon 0:1
    19.09.2025 Lyon - Angers 1:0
    14.09.2025 Rennes - Lyon 3:1
    Latest results of Toulouse
    27.09.2025 Toulouse - Nantes 2:2
    21.09.2025 Auxerre - Toulouse 1:0
    14.09.2025 Lille - Toulouse 2:1
    24.08.2025 Toulouse - Brest 2:0
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Marseille860221:71418
    2PSG852116:8817
    3Strasbourg851217:10716
    4Lens851212:7516
    5Lyon850311:8315
    6Lille842216:10614
    7Monaco842217:13414
    8Toulouse841315:12313
    9Rennes825111:12-111
    10Nice832312:14-211
    11Paris FC931514:17-310
    12Brest823314:1409
    13Nantes92347:10-39
    14Lorient822412:19-78
    15Auxerre82157:12-57
    16Le Havre813410:16-66
    17Angers81344:12-86
    18Metz80265:20-152

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2