Result
2:3
18/04/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Campeonato Nacional - Losers stage - Round 5
Chances of winning
Castêlo da Maia
56.2% | Madalena
43.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castêlo da Maia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)Madalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castêlo da Maia than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castêlo da Maia that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madalena than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Madalena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Castêlo da Maia - Madalena Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.65 ↓
(1.71) |
|
2.11 ↑
(1.97) |
8.1%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 181.50
Preview Facts
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Recently, Castêlo da Maia has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castêlo da Maia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 2.4:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Castêlo da Maia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Castêlo da Maia won against Madalena?
Castêlo da Maia has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Madalena won against Castêlo da Maia?
Madalena has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Castêlo da Maia - Madalena were as follows:
28.03.2026
Madalena
-
Castêlo da Maia
2:3
21.12.2025
Castêlo da Maia
-
Madalena
0:3
25.10.2025
Madalena
-
Castêlo da Maia
2:3
01.02.2025
Castêlo da Maia
-
Madalena
3:1
09.11.2024
Madalena
-
Castêlo da Maia
0:3
Latest results of Castêlo da Maia
Latest results of Madalena
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Sporting CP (1) | Gondomar (8) | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Academica de Espinho (4) | Vitoria (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Benfica (2) | Sporting de Espinho (7) | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Leixoes SC (3) | Mamede (6) | 2 : 0 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Sporting CP (1) | Vitoria (5) | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Benfica (2) | Leixoes SC (3) | 3 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Sporting CP (1) | Benfica (2) | 1 : 0 |
3rd place| 2 | Leixoes SC (3) | Vitoria (5) | 1 : 0 |
