Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga Mainz - Borussia Dortmund
Result
0:2
27/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 5
  • Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT, SporTV
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileESPN Premium
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaESPN 2
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 6
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 5
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaSony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 3
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258, Sky Sport Calcio
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalDAZN 4, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 3
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.311.47
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
810
Shots on target
24
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
75
Passes
75% (275/368)77% (302/392)
Yellow Cards
21
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.311.47
xG on target (xGOT)
0.232.13
Total shots
810
Shots on target
24
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
13
Shots inside the Box
68
Shots outside the Box
22
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
75
Touches in opposition box
1517
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
52
Free Kicks
1412
Passes
75% (275/368)77% (302/392)
Long passes
32% (19/59)40% (24/60)
Passes in final third
63% (91/144)58% (59/101)
Crosses
19% (4/21)43% (3/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.651.56
Throw-ins
1529
Fouls
1214
Tackles
59% (10/17)75% (6/8)
Duels won
6046
Clearances
2737
Interceptions
88
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
2.130.23
Goals prevented
0.130.23

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 27', 0 - 1, Svensson D. , Brandt J. (A),
  • 40', 0 - 2, Adeyemi K. , Brandt J. (A),
  • 43', Couto Y. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 50', Amiri N. 🟨,
  • 63', Leitsch M. , Bell S. ,
  • 63', Lee Jae-Sung , Nordin A. ,
  • 67', Zentner R. 🟥,
  • 68', Adeyemi K. , Chukwuemeka C. ,
  • 69', Hanche-Olsen A. , Riess L. ,
  • 69', Couto Y. , Ryerson J. ,
  • 77', Nmecha F. , Bellingham J. ,
  • 77', Sabitzer M. , Gross P. ,
  • 80', Amiri N. , Maloney L. ,
  • 80', Sieb A. , Weiper N. ,
  • 87', Beier M. , Silva F. ,
  • 90', Nebel P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Mainz
27.5%
Draw
25%
Borussia Dortmund
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
29.4% 25.1% 45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7% 24.5% 46.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
  • Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
  • Mainz - Borussia Dortmund Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.49
    (3.23)
    3.84
    (3.78)
    2.04
    (2.09)
    3.7%
    (5.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Mainz - Borussia Dortmund?
  • Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 70.37%95.35%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Borussia Dortmund will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.
    • Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Borussia D is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Borussia D may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Borussia D might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Muscle Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Gleiber D. (Thigh Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury) Widmer S. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Borussia D: Silva F. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 1.2:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Borussia Dortmund were as follows:
    30.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 3:1
    09.11.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:1
    11.05.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:0
    19.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 1:1
    27.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 2:2
    Latest results of Mainz
    20.09.2025 Augsburg - Mainz 1:4
    13.09.2025 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1
    31.08.2025 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:1
    28.08.2025 Mainz - Rosenborg 4:1
    24.08.2025 Mainz - Köln 0:1
    Latest results of Borussia Dortmund
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich550022:31915
    2Dortmund541011:3813
    3RB Leipzig54017:7012
    4Eintracht Frankfurt530217:1349
    5Stuttgart53027:619
    6Bayer Leverkusen522110:828
    7FC Koln521210:917
    8Freiburg52129:907
    9St. Pauli52128:807
    10Hoffenheim52129:11-27
    11Union Berlin52128:11-37
    12Wolfsburg51227:705
    13Hamburger SV51222:8-65
    14Mainz51135:6-14
    15Werder Bremen51138:14-64
    16Augsburg51048:12-43
    17Heidenheim51044:10-63
    18B. Monchengladbach50235:12-72

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga