Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund - Mainz
Result
3:1
30/03/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 27
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, ZAP
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 3
angolaAngolaZ Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 2
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports 2
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Ultra
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, Now Player
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaiNews, K-Vision, RCTI+, Vidio
israelIsraelSport 3
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
maldivesMaldivesMedianet
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 6
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 2
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandEleven Sports 2, Viaplay
portugalPortugalDAZN 2
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaNova Sport
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2, Voyo
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, PPTV Sports
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Tivibu Spor 2
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldDisney+, Onefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.780.81
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
73
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
75% (318/425)79% (423/534)
Yellow Cards
20
Expected Goals (xG)
2.780.81
xG on target (xGOT)
2.540.47
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
73
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
65
Shots inside the Box
109
Shots outside the Box
83
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2428
Through passes
100% (1/1)0% (0/1)
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
810
Passes
75% (318/425)79% (423/534)
Long passes
34% (24/71)45% (24/53)
Passes in final third
70% (100/142)66% (84/128)
Crosses
38% (6/16)35% (7/20)
Expected assists (xA)
3.111.18
Fouls
108
Tackles
61% (14/23)41% (11/27)
Duels won
6162
Clearances Total
2628
Interceptions
1214
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.472.54
Goals prevented
-0.53-0.46

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 39', 1 - 0, Beier M. , Adeyemi K. (A),
  • 42', 2 - 0, Can E. , Schlotterbeck N. (A),
  • 45', Couto Y. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 62', Couto Y. , Svensson D. ,
  • 65', Lee Jae-Sung , Hong Hyun-Seok ,
  • 66', Widmer S. , Veratschnig N. ,
  • 72', 3 - 0, Beier M. , Schlotterbeck N. (A),
  • 76', 3 - 1, Nebel P. ,
  • 79', Brandt J. , Chukwuemeka C. ,
  • 79', Ozcan S. , Sule N. ,
  • 88', Nebel P. , Sieb A. ,
  • 88', Caci A. , Nordin A. ,
  • 89', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
  • 90', Adeyemi K. , Gittens J. ,
  • 90+1', Anton W. , Bensebaini R. ,

Chances of winning


Borussia Dortmund
57.4%
Draw
23.3%
Mainz
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
56.3% 23.8% 19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2% 25.9% 18.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1%)
  • Borussia Dortmund - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.67
    (1.71)
    4.1
    (4.04)
    4.97
    (4.83)
    4.3%
    (4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund - Mainz?
  • Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 17 - 43.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 18 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 30.6%61.8%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 1.
    • Recent matches Borussia D is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Mainz in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • In this match Borussia D is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Borussia D: Mane F. (Muscle Injury) Nmecha F. (Knee Injury) Sabitzer M. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Thigh Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Mwene P. (Yellow Cards)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 32:23 (average 1.6:1.2).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Borussia D won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:13 (average 1.4:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Borussia Dortmund - Mainz were as follows:
    09.11.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:1
    11.05.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:0
    19.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 1:1
    27.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 2:2
    25.01.2023 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 1:2
    Latest results of Borussia Dortmund
    Latest results of Mainz
    15.03.2025 Mainz - Freiburg 2:2
    01.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2
    22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0
    16.02.2025 Heidenheim - Mainz 0:2
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union Berlin00000:000
    2Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    3Bayern Munich00000:000
    4Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    5Werder Bremen00000:000
    6Hamburger SV00000:000
    7Wolfsburg00000:000
    8Dortmund00000:000
    9B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    10Hoffenheim00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Freiburg00000:000
    14St. Pauli00000:000
    15Augsburg00000:000
    16Stuttgart00000:000
    17Heidenheim00000:000
    18RB Leipzig00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga