Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Mewa Arena (Mainz).

Bundesliga - Round 5
Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Brazil	Canal GOAT, SporTV
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN Premium
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.31	1.47
Ball Possession
49%	51%
Total shots
8	10
Shots on target
2	4
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
7	5
Passes
75% (275/368)	77% (302/392)
Yellow Cards
2	1
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.31	1.47
xG on target (xGOT)
0.23	2.13
Total shots
8	10
Shots on target
2	4
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked Shots
1	3
Shots inside the Box
6	8
Shots outside the Box
2	2
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
7	5
Touches in opposition box
15	17
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
5	2
Free Kicks
14	12
Passes
75% (275/368)	77% (302/392)
Long passes
32% (19/59)	40% (24/60)
Passes in final third
63% (91/144)	58% (59/101)
Crosses
19% (4/21)	43% (3/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.65	1.56
Throw-ins
15	29
Fouls
12	14
Tackles
59% (10/17)	75% (6/8)
Duels won
60	46
Clearances
27	37
Interceptions
8	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
2.13	0.23
Goals prevented
0.13	0.23

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
27', 0 - 1, Svensson D. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
40', 0 - 2, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
43', Couto Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Amiri N. 🟨,
63', Leitsch M. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
63', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
67', Zentner R. 🟥,
68', Adeyemi K. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
69', Hanche-Olsen A. ↓, Riess L. ↑,
69', Couto Y. ↓, Ryerson J. ↑,
77', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
77', Sabitzer M. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
80', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
80', Sieb A. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
87', Beier M. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
90', Nebel P. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Mainz
27.5%

Draw
25%

Borussia Dortmund
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

25.1%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

24.5%

46.6%

Mainz - Borussia Dortmund Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (3.23)	3.84 ↑ (3.78)	2.04 ↓ (2.09)	3.7% (5.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Mainz - Borussia Dortmund?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mainz (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.37% – 95.35%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Borussia Dortmund will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Borussia D (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.
Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Borussia D is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Borussia D may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Borussia D might have a minor edge in this game.
There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Muscle Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Gleiber D. (Thigh Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card)
There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)
There are questionable in Mainz: Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury) Widmer S. (Injury)
There are questionable in Borussia D: Silva F. (Muscle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 1.2:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Borussia Dortmund?

Mainz has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Borussia Dortmund won against Mainz?

Borussia Dortmund has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Borussia Dortmund were as follows:

30.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 3:1

09.11.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:1

11.05.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:0

19.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 1:1

27.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 2:2

Latest results of Mainz

20.09.2025 Augsburg - Mainz 1:4 ✺

13.09.2025 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:1 ✺

28.08.2025 Mainz - Rosenborg 4:1 ✺

24.08.2025 Mainz - Köln 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Borussia Dortmund

21.09.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg 1:0 ✺

16.09.2025 Juventus - Borussia Dortmund 4:4 ✺

13.09.2025 Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund 0:2 ✺

31.08.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin 3:0 ✺

23.08.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 3:3 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	18	16	2	0	71:14	57	50
2	Dortmund	18	11	6	1	35:17	18	39
3	Hoffenheim	17	10	3	4	35:21	14	33
4	Stuttgart	18	10	3	5	33:26	7	33
5	RB Leipzig	17	10	2	5	33:24	9	32
6	Bayer Leverkusen	17	9	2	6	34:25	9	29
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	18	7	6	5	38:39	-1	27
8	Freiburg	18	6	6	6	29:31	-2	24
9	Union Berlin	18	6	6	6	24:27	-3	24
10	FC Koln	18	5	5	8	27:30	-3	20
11	B. Monchengladbach	18	5	5	8	23:29	-6	20
12	Wolfsburg	18	5	4	9	27:38	-11	19
13	Werder Bremen	17	4	6	7	21:34	-13	18
14	Hamburger SV	17	4	5	8	17:27	-10	17
15	Augsburg	18	4	4	10	20:35	-15	16
16	Heidenheim	18	3	4	11	17:39	-22	13
17	Mainz	18	2	6	10	18:31	-13	12
18	St. Pauli	17	3	3	11	16:31	-15	12

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      Bundesliga (Relegation)
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