Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football South African Knockout Mamelodi Sundowns - Marumo Gallants
Result
0:1 penalties
04/10/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Carling Knockout - 1/8-finals

Match Stats

Yellow Cards
32
Red Cards
10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 30', Nhlapo S. 🟨,
  • 34', Aubaas B. J. 🟨,
  • 35', James D. , Ncube K. ,
  • 42', Santos N. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 61', Aubaas B. J. , Mokoena T. ,
  • 64', Ndlondlo N. , Clifford J. ,
  • 64', Motloung T. , Msendami D. ,
  • 77', Bance I. , Sithole K. ,
  • 78', Sithole S. , Mpambaniso M. ,
  • 79', Arthur Sales , Reisinho M. ,
  • 83', Modiba A. 🟨,
  • 85', Reisinho M. 🟥,
  • 89', Matthews T. , Basadien F. ,
  • 89', Cupido K. , Lebusa M. ,
  • 89', Rayners I. , Shalulile P. ,
  • 90', Msendami D. 🟨,
  • Extra Time (0 - 0)
  • 96', Mudau K. , Morena T. ,
  • Penalties (6 - 7)
  • 1, Allende M. (Pen),
  • 1, Clifford J. (Pen),
  • 2, Basadien F. (Pen),
  • 2, Mbhele S. (Pen),
  • 3, Modiba A. (Pen),
  • 3, (Pen),
  • 4, Shalulile P. (Pen),
  • 4, Msendami D. (Pen),
  • 5, Santos N. (Pen),
  • 5, Sithole S. (Pen),
  • 6, Mokoena T. (Pen),
  • 6, Chabatsane M. (Pen),
  • 7, Morena T. (Pen),
  • 7, Ncube K. (Pen),
  • 8, Khoza M. (Pen),
  • 8, Nhlapo S. (Pen),
  • 9, Lebusa M. (Pen),
  • 9, Arubi W. (Pen),

Chances of winning


Mamelodi Sundowns
74.9%
Draw
18.1%
Marumo Gallants
7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
63.7% 22.6% 13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1% 21.5% 13%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mamelodi Sundowns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mamelodi Sundowns's performance.
  • Marumo Gallants has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marumo Gallants might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (-7.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mamelodi Sundowns that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marumo Gallants than the current prediction. (+6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marumo Gallants could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Mamelodi Sundowns - Marumo Gallants Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.22
    (1.44)
    5.04
    (4.05)
    13.05
    (6.7)
    9.6%
    (9.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mamelodi Sundowns won 4.
    • Mamelodi Sundowns is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • In recent matches, Marumo Gallants has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • In this match, Mamelodi Sundowns is the undisputed favorite.
    • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mamelodi Sundowns won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 26:8. (average 2:0.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mamelodi Sundowns won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1.3:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mamelodi Sundowns - Marumo Gallants were as follows:
    17.09.2025 Marumo Gallants - Mamelodi Sundowns 1:1
    19.02.2025 Marumo Gallants - Mamelodi Sundowns 1:3
    10.11.2024 Marumo Gallants - Mamelodi Sundowns 0:2
    24.09.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns - Marumo Gallants 4:1
    06.05.2023 Marumo Gallants - Mamelodi Sundowns 0:2
    Latest results of Mamelodi Sundowns
    Latest results of Marumo Gallants
    Draw
    2025

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    5Mamelodi SundownsMarumo Gallants0 : 1
    6Richards BayChippa Utd.4 : 1
    7StellenboschKaizer Chiefs1 : 0
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