Matteo Arnaldi vs Borna Coric – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:1
24/04/2025 at 10:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Match Stats

Aces
135
Double Faults
43
1st Serve Percentage
51%70%
1st Serve Points Won
73% (36/49)73% (54/74)
2nd Serve Points Won
56% (27/48)38% (12/32)
Break Points Saved
75% (6/8)50% (3/6)
1st Return Points Won
27% (20/74)27% (13/49)
2nd Return Points Won
63% (20/32)44% (21/48)
Break Points Converted
50% (3/6)25% (2/8)
Winners
3327
Unforced Errors
2540
Net Points Won
63% (5/8)94% (17/18)
Service Points Won
65% (63/97)62% (66/106)
Return Points Won
38% (40/106)35% (34/97)
Total Points Won
51% (103/203)49% (100/203)
Last 10 Balls
73
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
88% (14/16)81% (13/16)
Return Games Won
19% (3/16)13% (2/16)
Total Games Won
53% (17/32)47% (15/32)

Chances of winning


Matteo Arnaldi
55.5%
Borna Coric
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
59.9% 40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2% 39.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • Borna Coric has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borna Coric than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
  • Matteo Arnaldi - Borna Coric Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.72
    (1.59)

    2.13
    (2.38)
    5%
    (4.9%)
    What is the prediction for Matteo Arnaldi - Borna Coric?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Borna Coric will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 77.93%100%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borna Coric will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 44. Coric is ranked ATP: 104.
    • Arnaldi is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Recent matches Coric is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Coric could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.
    • Recently, the players did not play each other.
    Latest results of Matteo Arnaldi
    Latest results of Borna Coric
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Bonzi B. (Q)Droguet T. (Q)2 : 1
    3Moller E. (Q)Cina F. (WC)2 : 0
    4ByeDiallo G. (32)
    5Norrie C. (19)Bye
    6Machac T.Comesana F.2 : 1
    7Bautista-Agut R.Tirante T. A.0 : 2
    8ByePaul T. (15)
    9Rublev A. (9)Bye
    10Zhang Z. (PR)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    11Sonego L.Lajovic D. (Q)0 : 2
    12ByeRinderknech A. (22)
    13Fonseca J. (27)Bye
    14Bergs Z.Cilic M.1 : 2
    15Jodar R. (WC)De Jong J.2 : 1
    16ByeDe Minaur A. (5)
    17Shelton B. (4)Bye
    18Prizmic D. (Q)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    19Basilashvili N. (Q)Ofner S.0 : 2
    20ByeEtcheverry T. M. (25)
    21Fils A. (21)Bye
    22Buse I.Mannarino A.2 : 0
    23Brooksby J.Nava E.0 : 2
    24ByeVacherot V. (14)
    25Lehecka J. (11)Bye
    26Tabilo A.Royer V.2 : 0
    27Muller A.Struff J-L.0 : 2
    28ByeMichelsen A. (33)
    29Griekspoor T. (29)Bye
    30Dzumhur D.Bellucci M.2 : 0
    31Faria J. (Q)Hurkacz H.0 : 2
    32ByeMusetti L. (6)
    33Bublik A. (8)Bye
    34Kypson P. (LL)Tsitsipas S.1 : 2
    35Trungelliti M. (LL)Merida Aguilar D. (Q)1 : 2
    36ByeMoutet C. (26)
    37Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Bye
    38Carreno-Busta P. (WC)Fucsovics M.2 : 1
    39Munar J.Shevchenko A.2 : 0
    40ByeRuud C. (12)
    41Cerundolo F. (16)Bye
    42Hanfmann Y.Giron M.2 : 1
    43Altmaier D.Cerundolo J. M.0 : 2
    44ByeDarderi L. (18)
    45Nakashima B. (28)Bye
    46Garin C. (LL)Blockx A.1 : 2
    47Gaubas V. (Q)Baez S.2 : 0
    48ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (3)
    49Medvedev D. (7)Bye
    50Marozsan F.Quinn E.2 : 0
    51Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)Opelka R. (RET.)0 : 0
    52ByeShapovalov D. (31)
    53Tien L. (17)Bye
    54Vallejo D. (Q)Dimitrov G.2 : 0
    55Ugo Carabelli C.Monfils G. (WC)2 : 0
    56ByeCobolli F. (10)
    57Khachanov K. (13)Bye
    58Landaluce M. (WC)Walton A.0 : 2
    59Popyrin A.Damm M. (Q)0 : 2
    60ByeMensik J. (23)
    61Humbert U. (30)Bye
    62Atmane T.Kecmanovic M.2 : 0
    63Borges N.Navone M.0 : 2
    64ByeZverev A. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bonzi B. (Q)2 : 1
    2Moller E. (Q)Diallo G. (RET.) (32)1 : 0
    3Norrie C. (19)Machac T.2 : 1
    4Tirante T. A.Paul T. (15)2 : 0
    5Rublev A. (9)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    6Lajovic D.Rinderknech A. (22)0 : 2
    7Fonseca J. (WO.) (27)Cilic M.
    8Jodar R.De Minaur A. (5)2 : 0
    9Shelton B. (4)Prizmic D.1 : 2
    10Ofner S.Etcheverry T. M. (25)0 : 2
    11Fils A. (21)Buse I.2 : 1
    12Nava E.Vacherot V. (14)2 : 1
    13Lehecka J. (11)Tabilo A.2 : 1
    14Struff J-L.Michelsen A. (33)0 : 2
    15Griekspoor T. (29)Dzumhur D.2 : 0
    16Hurkacz H.Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    17Bublik A. (8)Tsitsipas S.0 : 2
    18Merida Aguilar D.Moutet C. (26)2 : 0
    19Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Carreno-Busta P.2 : 0
    20Munar J.Ruud C. (12)0 : 2
    21Cerundolo F. (16)Hanfmann Y.2 : 0
    22Cerundolo J. M.Darderi L. (18)0 : 2
    23Nakashima B. (28)Blockx A.1 : 2
    24Gaubas V.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)0 : 2
    25Medvedev D. (7)Marozsan F.2 : 1
    26Budkov Kjaer N.Shapovalov D. (31)2 : 0
    27Tien L. (17)Vallejo D.0 : 2
    28Ugo Carabelli C.Cobolli F. (10)1 : 2
    29Khachanov K. (13)Walton A.2 : 0
    30Damm M.Mensik J. (23)0 : 2
    31Humbert U. (30)Atmane T.0 : 2
    32Navone M.Zverev A. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Moller E.
    2Norrie C. (19)Tirante T. A.
    3Kopriva V.Rinderknech A. (22)
    4Fonseca J. (27)Jodar R.
    5Prizmic D.Etcheverry T. M. (25)
    6Fils A. (21)Nava E.
    7Lehecka J. (11)Michelsen A. (33)2 : 0
    8Griekspoor T. (29)Musetti L. (6)
    9Tsitsipas S.Merida Aguilar D.
    10Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Ruud C. (12)
    11Cerundolo F. (16)Darderi L. (18)
    12Blockx A.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
    13Medvedev D. (7)Budkov Kjaer N.
    14Vallejo D.Cobolli F. (10)
    15Khachanov K. (13)Mensik J. (23)
    16Atmane T.Zverev A. (2)

    1/8-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4Lehecka J. (11)TBD #8
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13TBD #14
    8TBD #15TBD #16

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2