Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Australian A-League
Result
2:3
06/02/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • A-League - Round 16
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaParamount+
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live, myTV SUPER
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 34 Football
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.731.08
Ball possession
57%43%
Total shots
812
Shots on target
36
Big chances
14
Corner kicks
67
Passes
84% (446/529)79% (314/398)
Yellow cards
21
Expected goals (xG)
0.731.08
xG on target (xGOT)
0.572.44
Total shots
812
Shots on target
36
Shots off target
15
Blocked shots
41
Shots inside the box
67
Shots outside the box
25
Hit the woodwork
01
Headed goals
02
Big chances
14
Corner kicks
67
Touches in opposition box
1719
Accurate through passes
13
Offsides
31
Free kicks
67
Passes
84% (446/529)79% (314/398)
Long passes
45% (17/38)40% (23/58)
Passes in final third
65% (53/81)67% (107/160)
Crosses
14% (2/14)13% (2/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.611.63
Throw ins
1818
Fouls
76
Tackles
65% (13/20)50% (6/12)
Duels won
4538
Clearances
3017
Interceptions
314
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
32
xGOT faced
2.440.57
Goals prevented
-0.56-0.43

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 10', 0 - 1, Esposito S. ⚽, Piscopo R. (A),
  • 39', 1 - 1, Armiento C. ⚽, Najjarine R. (A),
  • 41', Nduka C. 🟨,
  • 44', 1 - 2, Velupillay N. ⚽, Nduka C. (A),
  • 45+3', Retre P. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 63', Mata J. ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
  • 63', Piscopo R. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
  • 68', Kartum S. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
  • 76', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
  • 76', Genreau D. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
  • 77', Najjarine R. ↓, Piper C. ↑,
  • 77', 1 - 3, D'Arrigo L. ⚽, Jelacic K. (A),
  • 82', Retre P. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
  • 82', James M. ↓, Sheridan M. ↑,
  • 84', 2 - 3, Roderick (Own goal),
  • 90+2', Kelly-Heald L. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Wellington Phoenix
25.6%		Draw
23.9%		Melbourne Victory
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
28.3% 25.8% 45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3% 24.9% 47.5%

Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 3.67 ↑
(3.25)		 3.95 ↑
(3.57)		 1.88 ↓
(2.01)		 5.9%
(8.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 42.8% – 90.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 10%). Melbourne Victory (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Melbourne Victory (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Melbourne Victory (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Melbourne Victory (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Melbourne Victory (2.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Melbourne Victory (1.89) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Melbourne Victory (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Melbourne Victory (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Melbourne Victory (1.43) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Melbourne Victory (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 23 high ROI users predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 4.3%). Melbourne Victory (votes: 20 - 87%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 8)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 1.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Melbourne Victory might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Wellington: Edwards D. (Inactive) Oluwayemi J. (Injury) Smith J. (Inactive) Supyk L. (Injury) Walker N. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.1:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory were as follows:
    29.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix 5:1
    12.04.2025 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory 2:3
    14.02.2025 Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix 1:0
    23.11.2024 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory 1:0
    18.05.2024 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory 1:2
    Latest results of Wellington Phoenix
    30.01.2026 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City 2:2 ✺
    23.01.2026 Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix 4:1 ✺
    18.01.2026 Sydney - Wellington Phoenix 0:2 ✺
    10.01.2026 Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United 2:2 ✺
    03.01.2026 Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix 0:3 ✺
    Latest results of Melbourne Victory
    01.02.2026 Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory 1:0 ✺
    26.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Sydney 4:0 ✺
    17.01.2026 Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory 2:1 ✺
    10.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers 0:1 ✺
    02.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory 3:2 ✺
    Australian A-League Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Newcastle Jets16100637:28930
    2Auckland FC1684423:17628
    3Sydney FC1581622:15725
    4Macarthur FC1767424:23125
    5Melbourne Victory1672723:21223
    6Adelaide United1672726:26023
    7Melbourne City1757519:21-222
    8Brisbane Roar1763817:22-521
    9Perth Glory1662820:22-220
    10Central Coast Mariners1654721:24-319
    11Wellington Phoenix1654726:31-519
    12WS Wanderers1644813:21-816

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