Result
2:3
06/02/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- A-League - Round 16
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | Paramount+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Hong-kong | M Plus Live, myTV SUPER |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 Macao | Macau Cable TV 34 Football |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 1 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1 |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.08 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (446/529) | 79% (314/398) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 2.44 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (446/529) | 79% (314/398) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (17/38) | 40% (23/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (53/81) | 67% (107/160) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (2/14) | 13% (2/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 1.63 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (13/20) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.44 | 0.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.56 | -0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 10', 0 - 1, Esposito S. ⚽, Piscopo R. (A),
- 39', 1 - 1, Armiento C. ⚽, Najjarine R. (A),
- 41', Nduka C. 🟨,
- 44', 1 - 2, Velupillay N. ⚽, Nduka C. (A),
- 45+3', Retre P. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 63', Mata J. ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
- 63', Piscopo R. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
- 68', Kartum S. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
- 76', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
- 76', Genreau D. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
- 77', Najjarine R. ↓, Piper C. ↑,
- 77', 1 - 3, D'Arrigo L. ⚽, Jelacic K. (A),
- 82', Retre P. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
- 82', James M. ↓, Sheridan M. ↑,
- 84', 2 - 3, Roderick (Own goal),
- 90+2', Kelly-Heald L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Wellington Phoenix
25.6% | Draw
23.9% | Melbourne Victory
50.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Wellington Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-3%)
Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.67 ↑
(3.25) |
3.95 ↑
(3.57) |
1.88 ↓
(2.01) |
5.9%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 42.8% – 90.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 10%). Melbourne Victory (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Melbourne Victory (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Melbourne Victory (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Melbourne Victory (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Melbourne Victory (2.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Melbourne Victory (1.89) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Melbourne Victory (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Melbourne Victory (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Melbourne Victory (1.43) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Melbourne Victory (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 23 high ROI users predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 4.3%). Melbourne Victory (votes: 20 - 87%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 8)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 1.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Melbourne Victory might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Wellington: Edwards D.
(Inactive)
Oluwayemi J.
(Injury)
Smith J.
(Inactive)
Supyk L.
(Injury)
Walker N.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.1:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Wellington Phoenix won against Melbourne Victory?
Wellington Phoenix has won 2 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Melbourne Victory won against Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne Victory has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory were as follows:
29.12.2025
Melbourne Victory
-
Wellington Phoenix
5:1
12.04.2025
Wellington Phoenix
-
Melbourne Victory
2:3
14.02.2025
Melbourne Victory
-
Wellington Phoenix
1:0
23.11.2024
Wellington Phoenix
-
Melbourne Victory
1:0
18.05.2024
Wellington Phoenix
-
Melbourne Victory
1:2
Latest results of Wellington Phoenix
Latest results of Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 19 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 41:29 | 12 | 37 |
| 2 | Auckland FC | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 32:18 | 14 | 35 |
| 3 | Sydney FC | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 26:18 | 8 | 32 |
| 4 | Adelaide United | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33:28 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 28:24 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | Macarthur FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 24:28 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Central Coast Mariners | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 24:26 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 20:27 | -7 | 22 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22:30 | -8 | 21 |
| 11 | WS Wanderers | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21:26 | -5 | 20 |
| 12 | Wellington Phoenix | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 28:39 | -11 | 20 |
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
