Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Australian A-League
Result
5:1
29/12/2025 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • A-League - Round 10
  • Referee: Evans S. (Aus)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaParamount+
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live, myTV SUPER
macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 34 Football
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 2
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.791.22
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
178
Shots on target
62
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
42
Passes
82% (411/503)78% (284/364)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.791.22
xG on target (xGOT)
3.351.37
Total shots
178
Shots on target
62
Shots off target
75
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
96
Shots outside the Box
82
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
42
Touches in opposition box
2618
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
30
Free Kicks
1012
Passes
82% (411/503)78% (284/364)
Long passes
43% (17/40)41% (22/54)
Passes in final third
73% (141/192)61% (49/80)
Crosses
35% (6/17)11% (1/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.610.51
Throw-ins
1717
Fouls
1210
Tackles
41% (9/22)75% (12/16)
Duels won
5050
Clearances
1932
Interceptions
1010
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
12
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
1.373.35
Goals prevented
0.37-1.65

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 7', 1 - 0, Vergos N. ⚽, Velupillay N. (A),
  • 29', 1 - 1, Najjarine R. ⚽,
  • 42', 2 - 1, Vergos N. ⚽, Rawlins J. (A),
  • 45+2', James M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 47', 3 - 1, Vergos N. ⚽,
  • 55', 4 - 1, Clarismario ⚽, Mata J. (A),
  • 56', Velupillay N. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
  • 57', Armiento C. ↓, Conchie F. ↑,
  • 57', Nagasawa K. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
  • 64', Rufer A. ↓, Retre P. ↑,
  • 67', Mata J. ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
  • 67', D'Arrigo L. ↓, Genreau D. ↑,
  • 82', Clarismario ↓, Reec J. ↑,
  • 82', Davidson J. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
  • 90', 5 - 1, Jelacic K. ⚽, Reec J. (A),
  • 90+4', Traore A. 🟨,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Melbourne Victory
59.5%		Draw
21.4%		Wellington Phoenix
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57.6% 24.1% 18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9% 22.8% 17.3%

Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 1.58 ↓
(1.6)		 4.4 ↑
(3.83)		 4.95 ↓
(5.05)		 6.1%
(8.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 4.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - Melbourne Victory (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Melbourne Victory will win (22 of 25 users predict this - 88%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 75.26% – 100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Melbourne Victory will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Wellington (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 9)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 3.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Recently, Melbourne Victory has had a series of away games.
    • Recently, Wellington has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Melbourne Victory is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury) Lino F. (Injury) Piscopo R. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Wellington: Ishige H. (Injury) Mileusnic N. (Injury) Payne T. (Inactive) Supyk L. (Injury) Walker N. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Wellington: Oluwayemi J. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:22. (average 1.4:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:6. (average 1.8:0.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix were as follows:
    12.04.2025 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory 2:3
    14.02.2025 Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix 1:0
    23.11.2024 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory 1:0
    18.05.2024 Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory 1:2
    12.05.2024 Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix 0:0
    Latest results of Melbourne Victory
    20.12.2025 Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory 0:1 ✺
    13.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United 2:1 ✺
    05.12.2025 Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory 0:0 ✺
    28.11.2025 Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory 1:0 ✺
    22.11.2025 Sydney - Melbourne Victory 3:0 ✺
    Latest results of Wellington Phoenix
    20.12.2025 Wellington Phoenix - Central Coast Mariners 3:1 ✺
    13.12.2025 Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets 1:3 ✺
    05.12.2025 Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix 3:1 ✺
    28.11.2025 Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United 2:1 ✺
    21.11.2025 Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC 0:1 ✺
    Australian A-League Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Auckland FC1373319:13624
    2Sydney FC1271418:9922
    3Newcastle Jets1370626:24221
    4Brisbane Roar1463513:13021
    5Melbourne City1455414:12220
    6Macarthur FC1455415:18-320
    7Adelaide United1361620:20019
    8Wellington Phoenix1353521:22-118
    9Melbourne Victory1352616:18-217
    10Perth Glory1351716:18-216
    11Central Coast Mariners1333716:21-512
    12WS Wanderers1333710:16-612

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