Result
2:1
26/04/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 32
- Referee: Lesage M. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.38 | 1.87 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (265/320) | 88% (563/641) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.38 | 1.87 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.12 | 2.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 34 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (265/320) | 88% (563/641) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (25/48) | 58% (38/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (57/80) | 68% (115/170) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/16) | 38% (9/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 1.84 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 31% (5/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.06 | 2.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.06 | 0.12 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 51', Toure A. 🟨,
- 53', Traore I. 🟨,
- 55', Mboup P. (Pen),
- 70', Jallow A. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
- 70', Mboula U. ↓, Lo A. ↑,
- 70', Stambouli B. ↓, Diallo P. A. ↑,
- 73', 1 - 0, Mboup P. ⚽, Boutaib K. (A),
- 73', Boutaib K. ↓, Arconte T. ↑,
- 74', Gaspar J. ↓, Bangre M. ↑,
- 74', Mboup P. ↓, Diawara K. ↑,
- 78', Gueye I. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
- 78', Kouao K. ↓, Van Den Kerkhof K. ↑,
- 78', Ngom O. ↓, Lopy J. ↑,
- 79', 1 - 1, Diallo P. A. ⚽, Udol M. (A),
- 81', Lo A. 🟨,
- 82', 2 - 1, Arconte T. (Pen),
- 85', Beusnard S. ↓, Chahiri M. ↑,
- 85', Mille A. 🟨,
- 87', Van Den Kerkhof K. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Pau
19.6% | Draw
22.1% | Metz
58.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Metz's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Metz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Pau - Metz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.8 ↑
(3.85) |
4.23 ↑
(3.45) |
1.62 ↓
(1.7) |
6.2%
(13.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Pau - Metz?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Metz will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Metz: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Metz (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Metz (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Metz (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- Recent matches Pau is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Metz is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Metz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- In this match Metz is a favorite.
- There will not play in Pau: Bobichon A.
(Ankle Injury)
Kante
(Yellow Cards)
Lopy J.
(Inactive)
Meddah D.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Metz: Asoro J.
(Injury)
Stambouli B.
(Inactive)
Sy P.
(Injury)
- Last 3 head-to-head matches Pau won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.3:0.7).
- Including matches at home between the teams Pau won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1
How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Metz?
Pau has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Metz won against Pau?
Metz has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pau - Metz were as follows:
04.01.2025
Metz
-
Pau
0:0
08.04.2023
Pau
-
Metz
1:1
01.10.2022
Metz
-
Pau
1:0
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 40:25 | 15 | 48 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 44:29 | 15 | 46 |
| 3 | Reims | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 37:23 | 14 | 42 |
| 4 | Le Mans | 25 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 30:24 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Red Star | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 30:25 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Annecy | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 34:25 | 9 | 39 |
| 7 | Dunkerque | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Rodez | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Montpellier | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 28:25 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Guingamp | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 35:36 | -1 | 35 |
| 11 | Pau FC | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 37:42 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 24:29 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | Clermont | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 29:33 | -4 | 28 |
| 14 | Nancy | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 22:33 | -11 | 27 |
| 15 | Boulogne | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 27 |
| 16 | Amiens | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 28:41 | -13 | 23 |
| 17 | Laval | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 19:35 | -16 | 19 |
| 18 | Bastia | 25 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 12:27 | -15 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
