Monterey Bay vs Miami – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship
Football USL Championship Monterey Bay - Miami
Result
1:1
04/05/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.160.90
Ball Possession
43%57%
Total shots
1413
Shots on target
47
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
46
Passes
71% (206/289)78% (301/386)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
2.160.90
xG on target (xGOT)
1.141.79
Total shots
1413
Shots on target
47
Shots off target
66
Blocked Shots
40
Shots inside the Box
116
Shots outside the Box
37
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
46
Touches in opposition box
2926
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
31
Free Kicks
1717
Passes
71% (206/289)78% (301/386)
Long passes
36% (25/69)47% (22/47)
Passes in final third
56% (43/77)65% (71/110)
Crosses
11% (2/19)29% (6/21)
Expected assists (xA)
1.621.95
Throw-ins
2725
Fouls
1717
Tackles
77% (10/13)81% (13/16)
Duels won
4760
Clearances
2626
Interceptions
116
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
63
xGOT faced
1.791.14
Goals prevented
0.790.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 9', 1 - 0, Paul I. ⚽, Malango M. (A),
  • 17', Paul I. 🟨,
  • 19', Zarate T. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 50', Ricketts J. 🟨,
  • 56', Paul I. ↓, Archimede L. ↑,
  • 56', Gavilanes A. ↓, Melano L. ↑,
  • 57', Zarate T. ↓, Lawrence M. ↑,
  • 60', Guzman C. 🟨,
  • 68', Guzman C. ↓, Lara A. ↑,
  • 68', Larsson A. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
  • 73', Cardona N. ↓, Veron D. ↑,
  • 73', Blanco S. ↓, Vazquez C. ↑,
  • 77', Mercado Carrizo D. A. ↓, Rivera R. ↑,
  • 78', Ivanovic L. ↓, Gallaway P. ↑,
  • 78', Guediri S. ↓, Lyons M. ↑,
  • 87', 1 - 1, Bonfiglio F. ⚽, Vazquez C. (A),
  • 90+5', Rivera R. 🟨,

Official Live

Chances of winning


Monterey Bay
54.9%		Draw
25.8%		Miami
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.8% 22.3% 14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5% 22.9% 14.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monterey Bay's form might have worsened.
  • Miami has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+9.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monterey Bay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
    •

    Monterey Bay - Miami Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.69 ↑
    (1.47)    		 3.59 ↓
    (4.15)    		 4.77 ↓
    (6.2)    		 8.2%
    (8.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).
    • Monterey Bay has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Miami is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Recently, Miami has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Monterey Bay is a strong favorite.
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).
    • Including home match between the teams, Monterey Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Monterey Bay - Miami were as follows:
    31.08.2024 Miami - Monterey Bay 1:0
    24.06.2023 Monterey Bay - Miami 1:0
    24.09.2022 Miami - Monterey Bay 0:0
    Latest results of Monterey Bay
    23.04.2025 New Mexico United - Monterey Bay 1:0
    19.04.2025 Lexington - Monterey Bay 0:0
    12.04.2025 Monterey Bay - Colorado Springs Switchbacks 2:1
    05.04.2025 Detroit City - Monterey Bay 0:0
    01.04.2025 Monterey Bay - El Farolito 1:2
    Latest results of Miami
    26.04.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami 3:3
    19.04.2025 Miami - North Carolina 2:1
    16.04.2025 Indy Eleven - Miami 1:0
    12.04.2025 San Antonio - Miami 1:2
    01.04.2025 Inter Miami II - Miami 0:1 ✺
    USL Championship Table
    2025

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Charleston18132338:162241
    2Louisville City17115130:131738
    3Loudoun1883728:27127
    4North Carolina1682625:20526
    5Pittsburgh1765615:15023
    6Detroit1756620:22-221
    7Indy Eleven1655626:28-220
    8Miami FC1754817:25-819
    9Birmingham1846819:25-618
    10Rhode Island1745814:18-417
    11Hartford Athletic1644819:21-216
    12Tampa Bay16421017:25-814


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Tulsa1795327:18932
    2San Antonio1683523:21227
    3New Mexico1681722:21125
    4Sacramento Republic1666422:121024
    5Orange County SC1672726:23323
    6El Paso1665524:25-123
    7Phoenix Rising1765627:30-323
    8Monterey Bay1864819:23-422
    9Colorado Springs1756622:23-121
    10Oakland Roots1762919:25-620
    11Lexington1847718:26-819
    12Las Vegas Lights1753913:28-1518

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )

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