Midtjylland vs AGF Aarhus – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Danish Superliga Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus
Result
3:1
04/05/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Superliga - Championship Group - Round 29
  • Referee: Hansen J. (Den)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
denmarkDenmarkTV3+, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
icelandIcelandViaplay
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 3
swedenSwedenViaplay
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.610.73
Ball Possession
56%44%
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
42
Passes
85% (402/475)76% (276/362)
Yellow Cards
12
Red Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
3.610.73
xG on target (xGOT)
2.830.82
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
47
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
77
Shots outside the Box
35
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
42
Touches in opposition box
3615
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
03
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
85% (402/475)76% (276/362)
Long passes
43% (22/51)34% (21/62)
Passes in final third
72% (98/137)58% (62/106)
Crosses
33% (3/9)47% (8/17)
Expected assists (xA)
2.250.67
Throw-ins
2023
Fouls
1211
Tackles
80% (8/10)71% (17/24)
Duels won
3848
Clearances
2727
Interceptions
510
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
0.822.83
Goals prevented
-0.18-0.17

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 7', Castillo D. 🟨,
  • 21', Bech T. 🟨,
  • 22', 1 - 0, Sorensen O. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Tingager F. , Akoto M. ,
  • 46', Castillo D. , Dani Silva ,
  • 58', Gogorza M. , Osorio D. ,
  • 60', 1 - 1, Arnstad K. , Bach T. (A),
  • 63', Bach T. , Mortensen P. ,
  • 67', Bak V. , Paulinho ,
  • 73', Byskov V. 🟥,
  • 80', 2 - 1, Franculino (Pen),
  • 85', Beijmo F. , Brandhof F. ,
  • 85', Bech T. 🟨,
  • 87', Poulsen N. , Duelund M. ,
  • 89', 3 - 1, Osorio D. , Franculino (A),
  • 90+7', Franculino , Johannesen S. ,
  • 90+7', Mbabu K. , Gabriel A. ,

Chances of winning


Midtjylland
52.3%
Draw
24.2%
AGF Aarhus
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.8% 25.4% 25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7% 26% 26.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Midtjylland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • AGF Aarhus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
  • Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.81
    (1.94)
    3.9
    (3.72)
    4.02
    (3.68)
    5.8%
    (5.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Midtjylland will win (22 of 23 users predict this - 95.65%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 87.31%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Midtjylland will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 6).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Midtjylland won 3.
    • Midtjylland has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Aarhus has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • In this match, Midtjylland is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Midtjylland: Buksa A. (Yellow Cards) Cho Gue-Sung (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Aarhus: Andersen J. (Injury) Tingager F. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Midtjylland: Simsir A. (Inactive)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Midtjylland won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 35:23. (average 1.8:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Midtjylland won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:9. (average 2.2:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus were as follows:
    13.04.2025 AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland 1:1
    27.10.2024 Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus 2:0
    19.07.2024 AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland 1:1
    04.07.2024 Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus 4:0
    12.05.2024 Midtjylland - AGF Aarhus 2:1
    Latest results of Midtjylland
    17.04.2025 Midtjylland - Copenhagen 4:2
    13.04.2025 AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland 1:1
    04.04.2025 Randers FC - Midtjylland 2:1
    Latest results of AGF Aarhus
    27.04.2025 AGF Aarhus - Copenhagen 1:3
    21.04.2025 Copenhagen - AGF Aarhus 3:1
    17.04.2025 Randers FC - AGF Aarhus 3:1
    13.04.2025 AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland 1:1
    07.04.2025 Brøndby - AGF Aarhus 2:1
    Danish Superliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Brondby11003:033
    2FC Copenhagen11003:213
    3Nordsjaelland11003:213
    4Midtjylland10103:301
    5Odense10103:301
    6Sonderjyske10101:101
    7Vejle10101:101
    8Aarhus10101:101
    9Randers FC10101:101
    10Fredericia10012:3-10
    11Viborg10012:3-10
    12Silkeborg10010:3-30

          Promotion ~ Superliga (Championship Group: )
          Superliga (Relegation Group: )