Result
1:0
10/03/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 37
- Referee: Donohue M. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.25 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (242/346) | 72% (257/355) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.25 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.23 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (242/346) | 72% (257/355) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (29/71) | 42% (34/81) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (71/115) | 65% (70/108) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (10/30) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.22 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 26 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (6/15) | 76% (13/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 43 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 2.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.23 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 43', 1 - 0, Coburn J. ⚽, Crama T. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Ozoh D. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
- 55', Clark B. 🟨,
- 58', Sanderson D. 🟨,
- 60', Brewster R. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
- 60', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
- 62', Morris C. 🟨,
- 72', Bannan B. ↓, Cundle L. ↑,
- 73', Ivanovic M. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
- 84', Travis L. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
- 86', Vickers J. ↓, O'Donnell R. ↑,
- 89', Mitchell B. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
- 89', Azeez F. ↓, Watson T. ↑,
- 90+1', Coburn J. ↓, Mazou-Sacko D. ↑,
Chances of winning
Millwall
46.7% | Draw
27.4% | Derby County
25.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Millwall - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.03 ↑
(1.94) |
3.44 ↓
(3.57) |
3.65 ↓
(3.79) |
5.8%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Millwall - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
47 users predict this event. Millwall will win (votes: 34 - 72.3%). Derby will win (votes: 7 - 14.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 59.5% – 85.1%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -1 - Derby (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Derby (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Millwall will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 19 high ROI users predict this event. Millwall (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Derby (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 2.
- Millwall is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Millwall might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Millwall: Jensen L.
(Muscle Injury)
Kelly D.
(Injury)
Luongo M.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Batth D.
(Muscle Injury)
Elder C.
(Inactive)
Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Langas S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Salvesen L.
(Muscle Injury)
Thompson L.
(Muscle Injury)
Widell Zetterstrom J.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Millwall: Bryan J.
(Injury)
Taylor C.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Millwall won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.2:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Millwall won against Derby County?
Millwall has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Millwall?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Millwall - Derby County were as follows:
10.12.2025
Derby County
-
Millwall
1:1
22.02.2025
Derby County
-
Millwall
0:1
19.10.2024
Millwall
-
Derby County
1:1
Latest results of Millwall
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 39 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 81:40 | 41 | 80 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 39 | 20 | 11 | 8 | 59:37 | 22 | 71 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 67:39 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | Millwall | 39 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 53:44 | 9 | 69 |
| 5 | Hull | 39 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 62:57 | 5 | 66 |
| 6 | Southampton | 39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 63:48 | 15 | 63 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 60:51 | 9 | 63 |
| 8 | Derby | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 56:48 | 8 | 60 |
| 9 | Watford | 39 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 50:46 | 4 | 56 |
| 10 | Norwich | 39 | 16 | 6 | 17 | 52:46 | 6 | 54 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 39 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 48:49 | -1 | 53 |
| 12 | QPR | 39 | 15 | 8 | 16 | 55:61 | -6 | 53 |
| 13 | Preston | 39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 45:49 | -4 | 52 |
| 14 | Swansea | 39 | 15 | 7 | 17 | 44:49 | -5 | 52 |
| 15 | Stoke | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 46:43 | 3 | 51 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 49:50 | -1 | 51 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 39 | 15 | 5 | 19 | 54:54 | 0 | 50 |
| 18 | Charlton | 39 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 36:46 | -10 | 48 |
| 19 | Blackburn | 39 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 36:49 | -13 | 43 |
| 20 | West Brom | 39 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 40:54 | -14 | 43 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 37:54 | -17 | 40 |
| 22 | Leicester | 39 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 51:60 | -9 | 39 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 39 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 36:51 | -15 | 39 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 39 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 24:79 | -55 | -6 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
