Result
1:1
10/12/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 20
- Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.02 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (242/341) | 64% (178/276) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (242/341) | 64% (178/276) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (23/71) | 37% (24/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (70/121) | 51% (46/91) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (5/23) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.90 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 46% (6/13) | 59% (13/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 70 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 45 | 69 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.16 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 3', Elder C. 🟨,
- 19', Thompson L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 67', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 67', Weimann A. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
- 68', Bangura-Williams R. ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
- 78', Azeez F. 🟨,
- 81', 0 - 1, Clarke M. (Own goal),
- 85', Langas S. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
- 86', Elder C. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 86', Thompson L. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 1, Cooper J. (Own goal),
- 89', Azeez F. ↓, McNamara D. ↑,
- 90', Doughty A. ↓, Bryan J. ↑,
- 90+2', McNamara D. 🟨,
- 90+2', Ballo T. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
- 90+6', Langstaff M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Derby County
35.1% | Draw
30.5% | Millwall
34.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-5.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Millwall, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Derby County - Millwall Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.7 ↑
(2.32) |
3.1 ↓
(3.2) |
2.76 ↓
(3.18) |
5.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Derby County - Millwall?
Users Predictions:
29 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Millwall will win (votes: 12 - 41.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 37.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 23.5% – 59.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Millwall (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.5 - Derby (4.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.25 - Derby (4.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Derby (3.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Derby (2.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Derby (2.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Derby (1.91) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- DC - Millwall (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 17 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Millwall (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 0.
- Derby has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Millwall is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Millwall may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Inactive)
Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Morris C.
(Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Injury)
Travis L.
(Calf Injury)
- There will not play in Millwall: Coburn J.
(Muscle Injury)
Leonard R.
(Calf Injury)
Luongo M.
(Knee Injury)
Mazou-Sacko D.
(Knee Injury)
Smallbone W.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Brewster R.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Millwall: Jensen L.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Mitchell B.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Derby won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:19. (average 1.1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.6:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Millwall?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Millwall won against Derby County?
Millwall has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Millwall were as follows:
22.02.2025
Derby County
-
Millwall
0:1
19.10.2024
Millwall
-
Derby County
1:1
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Millwall
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 72:38 | 34 | 71 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 54:35 | 19 | 66 |
| 3 | Millwall | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 47:40 | 7 | 62 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 59:34 | 25 | 60 |
| 5 | Hull | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 56:48 | 8 | 60 |
| 6 | Wrexham | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 54:45 | 9 | 57 |
| 7 | Southampton | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 57:46 | 11 | 53 |
| 8 | Derby | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 52:46 | 6 | 51 |
| 9 | Watford | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 51 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 35 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 48:44 | 4 | 50 |
| 11 | Preston | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 41:40 | 1 | 49 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 46:46 | 0 | 49 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 35 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 50:48 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Stoke | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 39:34 | 5 | 47 |
| 15 | QPR | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 46:54 | -8 | 47 |
| 16 | Swansea | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 40:43 | -3 | 46 |
| 17 | Norwich | 35 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 47:44 | 3 | 45 |
| 18 | Charlton | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 33:44 | -11 | 41 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 34:44 | -10 | 39 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 33:46 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | West Brom | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 34:52 | -18 | 35 |
| 22 | Leicester | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 47:56 | -9 | 34 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 31:47 | -16 | 32 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 35 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 21:71 | -50 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
