Result
0:1
21/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 27
- Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | TVI, V+ TVI |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.70 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (354/424) | 84% (372/443) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.70 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.03 | 1.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (354/424) | 84% (372/443) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (19/46) | 52% (26/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (56/87) | 59% (40/68) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (4/22) | 21% (5/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.40 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (10/12) | 89% (8/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.16 | 0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 34', Nandin D. 🟨,
- 39', Maracas 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 53', Nandin D. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 58', Kiko ↓, Landerson ↑,
- 58', Alanzinho ↓, Gower J. ↑,
- 67', 0 - 1, Puche ⚽,
- 70', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
- 73', Gozalbez P. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 75', Santos L. ↓, Kevyn Monteiro ↑,
- 82', John N. ↓, Rodri ↑,
- 86', Fukui T. ↓, Santiago Perez J. ↑,
- 86', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
- 86', Lee H. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
Chances of winning
Moreirense
36.2% | Draw
29.8% | Arouca
34% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moreirense's form might have worsened.Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arouca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Moreirense - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.6 ↑
(2.23) |
3.17 ↓
(3.25) |
2.81 ↓
(3.25) |
5.6%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Moreirense - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.4% – 99%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 4.
- Moreirense has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Moreirense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Moreirense: Pinto D.
(Inactive)
Sousa V.
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Arouca: Barbero I.
(Yellow Cards)
Flores M.
(Inactive)
Trezza A.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Moreirense: Landerson
(Injury)
Martinez A.
(Inactive)
Michel
(Inactive)
Teguia C.
(Inactive)
Yan Maranhao
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Arouca?
Moreirense has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Moreirense?
Arouca has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Moreirense - Arouca were as follows:
02.11.2025
Arouca
-
Moreirense
0:2
24.01.2025
Arouca
-
Moreirense
1:0
18.08.2024
Moreirense
-
Arouca
3:1
17.03.2024
Moreirense
-
Arouca
1:0
27.10.2023
Arouca
-
Moreirense
0:1
Latest results of Moreirense
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 28 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 56:13 | 43 | 73 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 72:17 | 55 | 68 |
| 3 | Benfica | 28 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 59:18 | 41 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 54:27 | 27 | 49 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 35:24 | 11 | 46 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 42:28 | 14 | 45 |
| 7 | Estoril | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 50:47 | 3 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 34:42 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 31:40 | -9 | 35 |
| 10 | Alverca | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:46 | -17 | 32 |
| 11 | Arouca | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 37:57 | -20 | 32 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 29:48 | -19 | 30 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 26:35 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 33:47 | -14 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 31:39 | -8 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 27:49 | -22 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19:44 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 28 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 18:61 | -43 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
