Result
21/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
Chances of winning
Moreirense
39.5% | Draw
29.2% | Arouca
31.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Moreirense - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.4 ↑
(2.23) |
3.24 ↓
(3.25) |
3.01 ↓
(3.25) |
5.7%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 4.
- Recent performances by Moreirense have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Arouca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Arouca?
Moreirense has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Moreirense?
Arouca has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Moreirense - Arouca were as follows:
02.11.2025
Arouca
-
Moreirense
0:2
24.01.2025
Arouca
-
Moreirense
1:0
18.08.2024
Moreirense
-
Arouca
3:1
17.03.2024
Moreirense
-
Arouca
1:0
27.10.2023
Arouca
-
Moreirense
0:1
Latest results of Moreirense
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 52:10 | 42 | 69 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 64:14 | 50 | 62 |
| 3 | Benfica | 26 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 55:17 | 38 | 62 |
| 4 | Braga | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 52:25 | 27 | 46 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 39:27 | 12 | 42 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 32:22 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 47:42 | 5 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 31:38 | -7 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 29:39 | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 26:41 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26:45 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | Arouca | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 33:55 | -22 | 26 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 23:31 | -8 | 25 |
| 14 | Estrela | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 29:45 | -16 | 25 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 29:38 | -9 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 26 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
