Result
2:1
27/09/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 7
- Referee: Bessa J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Portugal | V+ TVI |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.34 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (328/406) | 78% (262/335) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.34 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (328/406) | 78% (262/335) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (14/40) | 29% (17/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 59% (51/87) | 56% (50/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/15) | 38% (9/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.76 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 91% (10/11) | 60% (12/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 59 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.23 | 1.84 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.23 | -0.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 7', 0 - 1, Livolant J. ⚽, Conte A. (A),
- 10', Conte A. ↓, Benaissa-Yahia F. ↑,
- 14', 1 - 1, Guilherme Schettine ⚽, Kiko (A),
- 36', Alanzinho 🟨,
- 37', Benaissa-Yahia F. 🟨,
- 45+1', Kiko Bondoso 🟨,
- 45+4', Marcelo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 53', Sequeira P. ↓, Azevedo D. ↑,
- 53', Morais T. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
- 62', Travassos ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
- 62', Sousa V. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
- 66', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
- 68', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 70', 2 - 1, Bernardo ⚽,
- 77', Alanzinho ↓, Assis A. ↑,
- 77', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Landerson ↑,
- 82', Nhaga R. ↓, Svensson M. ↑,
- 82', Kaique Rocha ↓, Cassiano ↑,
- 84', Perez S. 🟨,
- 85', Kiko ↓, Batista G. ↑,
- 90+3', Guilherme Schettine 🟨,
- 90+4', Bernardo 🟨,
Chances of winning
Moreirense
58.4% | Draw
31.1% | Casa Pia
10.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moreirense's performance.Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casa Pia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-13.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreirense that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+17.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casa Pia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Moreirense - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.92 ↓
(2.18) |
3.77 ↑
(3.3) |
12.74 ↑
(3.22) |
-13.5%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Moreirense - Casa Pia?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 45% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 11).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Moreirense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Moreirense: Ofori L.
(Inactive)
Rodri
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Injury)
Kiki
(Injury)
Mandic I.
(Inactive)
Nsona K.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Oukili Y.
(Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.5:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 2:3).
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Casa Pia?
Moreirense has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Moreirense?
Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Moreirense - Casa Pia were as follows:
15.02.2025
Moreirense
-
Casa Pia
3:2
14.09.2024
Casa Pia
-
Moreirense
3:1
12.05.2024
Casa Pia
-
Moreirense
0:1
08.01.2024
Moreirense
-
Casa Pia
1:4
Latest results of Moreirense
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:5 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Benfica | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Arouca | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:19 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11:13 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Estrela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Tondela | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:14 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:20 | -15 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
