Result
1:3
13/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligi Kuu Bara - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Azam Sports 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 20', Mohamed 🟨,
- 38', 0 - 1, Cheda H. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Balama M. ↓, Onditi S. ↑,
- 46', Kihimbwa S. ↓, Ulomi D. R. ↑,
- 57', Hillary A. ↓, Masai O. ↑,
- 63', Onditi S. 🟨,
- 67', Said M. ↓, Kibaya J. ↑,
- 67', Selemani B. ↓, Shaban N. ↑,
- 75', 0 - 2, Kibaya J. ⚽,
- 82', 1 - 2, Magata F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90', 🟨,
- 90+2', 1 - 3, Bakari A. ⚽, Ulomi D. R. (A),
- 90+5', 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mtibwa Sugar
51.8% | Draw
27.6% | Mashujaa
20.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mtibwa Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mtibwa Sugar's form might have worsened.Mashujaa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mtibwa Sugar than the current prediction. (+9.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mtibwa Sugar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mashujaa than the current prediction. (-5.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mashujaa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mtibwa Sugar - Mashujaa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.77 ↑
(1.59) |
3.31 ↓
(3.59) |
4.45 ↓
(5.58) |
9.2%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 and 10).
- Mtibwa Sugar is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Mashujaa is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Mashujaa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Mtibwa Sugar has had a series of home games.
- Recently, Mashujaa has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Mtibwa Sugar is a strong favorite.
- We predict that Mtibwa Sugar will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mtibwa Sugar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).
- Including home match between the teams, Mtibwa Sugar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Mtibwa Sugar won against Mashujaa?
Mtibwa Sugar has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mashujaa won against Mtibwa Sugar?
Mashujaa has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mtibwa Sugar - Mashujaa were as follows:
21.09.2025
Mashujaa
-
Mtibwa Sugar
1:0
19.12.2023
Mtibwa Sugar
-
Mashujaa
2:1
Latest results of Mtibwa Sugar
Latest results of Mashujaa
Tanzanian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Young Africans | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 44:3 | 41 | 47 |
| 2 | Simba | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 32:7 | 25 | 42 |
| 3 | Azam | 20 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 29:5 | 24 | 40 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 21:20 | 1 | 32 |
| 5 | TRA United | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23:18 | 5 | 30 |
| 6 | Pamba | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 21:19 | 2 | 29 |
| 7 | Singida Black Stars | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 22:22 | 0 | 29 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 18:21 | -3 | 25 |
| 9 | Namungo | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 17:22 | -5 | 23 |
| 10 | Mtibwa Sugar | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 23 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 18:23 | -5 | 22 |
| 12 | Mashujaa | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 10:17 | -7 | 22 |
| 13 | Fountain Gate | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 11:28 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16:30 | -14 | 18 |
| 15 | Tanzania Prisons | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 10:26 | -16 | 14 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 8:31 | -23 | 9 |
Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification: )
Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)
Relegation
