Mushuc Runa vs Libertad Loja – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

09/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Bellavista (Ambato).

Liga Pro - Round 24
Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.25	1.01
Ball Possession
65%	35%
Total shots
21	7
Shots on target
8	2
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
7	1
Passes
86% (373/435)	70% (165/236)
Yellow Cards
2	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25	1.01
xG on target (xGOT)
2.21	1.13
Total shots
21	7
Shots on target
8	2
Shots off target
7	5
Blocked Shots
6	0
Shots inside the Box
7	4
Shots outside the Box
14	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
7	1
Touches in opposition box
17	8
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
10	8
Passes
86% (373/435)	70% (165/236)
Long passes
64% (43/67)	40% (25/62)
Passes in final third
70% (88/126)	42% (23/55)
Crosses
28% (7/25)	33% (1/3)
Expected assists (xA)
0.69	0.18
Throw-ins
28	16
Fouls
10	12
Tackles
50% (6/12)	54% (7/13)
Duels won
31	33
Clearances
6	26
Interceptions
6	2
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	7
xGOT faced
1.13	2.21
Goals prevented
-0.87	1.21

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Bentaberry B. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Ayovi W. ⚽, Zambrano I. (A),
44', 1 - 1, Gracia A. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Penilla C. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
46', Burbano R. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
46', Delgado B. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
59', 1 - 2, Caicedo E. (Pen),
68', Arce L. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
69', Ayovi W. ↓, Caicedo N. ↑,
83', Gracia A. ↓, Arce J. ↑,
83', Arboleda C. ↓, Gruezo C. ↑,
83', Garcia A. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
84', Tapiero S. 🟨,
87', Monaga J. 🟨,
89', Verges J. (Pen),
90+3', Bravo J. ↓, Humanante J. ↑,

Chances of winning

Mushuc Runa
41.4%

Draw
28%

Libertad Loja
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.8%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

27.7%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.1)	3.32 ↑ (3.25)	3.02 ↓ (3.5)	8.2% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja?

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 3.
Mushuc Runa is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Libertad has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Mushuc Runa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Mushuc Runa has had a series of away games.
Mushuc Runa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Libertad Loja?

Mushuc Runa has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Loja won against Mushuc Runa?

Libertad Loja has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja were as follows:

19.04.2025 Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa 2:1

26.09.2024 Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja 2:1

03.08.2024 Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa 2:2

02.03.2024 Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja 2:1

02.09.2023 Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa 0:1

Latest results of Mushuc Runa

06.08.2025 Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa 3:1 ✺

03.08.2025 LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa 2:1 ✺

27.07.2025 Mushuc Runa - Técnico Universitario 0:1 ✺

20.07.2025 Emelec - Mushuc Runa 1:0 ✺

13.07.2025 Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Libertad Loja

03.08.2025 Libertad Loja - Emelec 1:2 ✺

25.07.2025 El Nacional - Libertad Loja 2:2 ✺

21.07.2025 Libertad Loja - Manta 1:0 ✺

16.07.2025 La Cantera - Libertad Loja 1:0 ✺

13.07.2025 Orense - Libertad Loja 0:1 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle ✔	30	18	10	2	55:23	32	64
2	Barcelona SC ✔	30	16	6	8	46:33	13	54
3	LDU Quito ✔	30	14	9	7	48:31	17	51
4	U. Catolica	30	13	10	7	58:39	19	49
5	Orense	30	13	8	9	34:32	2	47
6	Libertad	30	12	10	8	42:36	6	46
7	Dep. Cuenca	30	13	7	10	35:29	6	46
8	Emelec ✔	30	11	9	10	30:34	-4	42
9	Aucas ✔	30	11	8	11	38:41	-3	41
10	Macara ✔	30	9	11	10	32:30	2	38
11	EL Nacional ✔	30	9	7	14	32:46	-14	34
12	Delfin	30	6	13	11	26:42	-16	31
13	Tecnico U	30	7	7	16	26:46	-20	28
14	Vinotinto	30	7	6	17	34:43	-9	27
15	Mushuc Runa ✔	30	7	6	17	38:50	-12	27
16	Manta ✔	30	5	11	14	34:53	-19	26

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
LDU Quito is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Emelec is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
Manta is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )