Result
3:4
17/01/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 19
- Referee: Blank E. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Japan | U-NEXT |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.19 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (221/309) | 77% (306/400) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 1.92 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (221/309) | 77% (306/400) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (35/70) | 35% (23/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 56% (45/81) | 63% (57/90) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (4/18) | 18% (2/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.50 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 46% (11/24) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 78 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.92 | 0.96 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -2.08 | -2.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 8', Brym C. 🟨,
- 10', 0 - 1, Dasa E. ⚽,
- 17', 0 - 2, Ouaissa S. ⚽, Ogawa K. (A),
- 30', Nejasmic D. ↓, Proper D. ↑,
- 38', 1 - 2, Soumano M. ⚽, Hillen R. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 55', 2 - 2, Soumano M. ⚽, Brym C. (A),
- 63', Ouaissa S. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
- 63', Ogawa K. ↓, Fonville D. ↑,
- 63', Greiml L. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
- 65', Balard M. 🟨,
- 69', 2 - 3, Proper D. ⚽, Chery T. (A),
- 71', van Hooijdonk S. ↓, Ayew A. ↑,
- 71', Soumano M. ↓, Talvitie J. ↑,
- 81', 3 - 3, Kemper B. ⚽, Holtby L. (A),
- 86', Onal B. ↓, Misidjan V. ↑,
- 87', Proper D. 🟨,
- 89', Holtby L. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
- 90+4', 3 - 4, Sano K. ⚽, Lebreton N. (A),
Chances of winning
NAC Breda
37.8% | Draw
26.9% | NEC Nijmegen
35.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in NAC Breda's performance.NEC Nijmegen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and NEC Nijmegen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-7.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (+8.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that NEC Nijmegen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.49 ↓
(2.96) |
3.53 ↓
(3.58) |
2.65 ↑
(2.21) |
6.2%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Nijmegen will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nijmegen: 39.2% – 89.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nijmegen (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.5 - Nijmegen (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Nijmegen (4.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Nijmegen (1.96) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Breda (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Nijmegen (votes: 6 - 85.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 2.
- Breda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Nijmegen is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Breda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Breda: Greiml L.
(Injury)
Jensen F.
(Injury)
Valerius C.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Nijmegen: El Kachati Y.
(Wrist Injury)
Entius F.
(Knee Injury)
Nuytinck B.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Breda: Kongolo T.
(Health problems)
- There are questionable in Nijmegen: Ouwejan T.
(Inactive)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Breda won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has NAC Breda won against NEC Nijmegen?
NAC Breda has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has NEC Nijmegen won against NAC Breda?
NEC Nijmegen has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen were as follows:
24.08.2025
NEC Nijmegen
-
NAC Breda
3:0
14.05.2025
NEC Nijmegen
-
NAC Breda
3:0
05.10.2024
NAC Breda
-
NEC Nijmegen
1:0
Latest results of NAC Breda
Latest results of NEC Nijmegen
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 70:29 | 41 | 62 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 55:33 | 22 | 48 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 59:40 | 19 | 43 |
| 4 | Ajax | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 42:38 | 4 | 39 |
| 6 | Twente | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 39:26 | 13 | 38 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:40 | -9 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 36:31 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Groningen | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 40:42 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Sittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 36:43 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Zwolle | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 26:39 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 28:41 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Heracles | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 31:62 | -31 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
