Result
0:1
01/03/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 4
- Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Antel TV, Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 23', Fernandez L. 🟨,
- 25', Coates S. ↓, Rogel A. ↑,
- 32', Umpierrez L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Umpierrez L. ↓, Escobar F. ↑,
- 54', Remedi E. 🟨,
- 57', Boggio L. 🟨,
- 60', Togni G. ↓, Laxalt D. ↑,
- 64', Gomez M. 🟨,
- 67', Veron T. ↓, Lodeiro N. ↑,
- 67', Martinez R. ↓, Barcia B. ↑,
- 76', 0 - 1, Arezo M. ⚽,
- 78', Candido C. 🟨,
- 80', Fernandez N. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
- 80', Silvera M. ↓, Carneiro G. ↑,
- 80', Boggio L. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
- 85', Remedi E. 🟨,
- 87', Fernandez L. ↓, Lemos M. ↑,
- 87', Arezo M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
- 90', Batista F. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional Montevideo
40.7% | Draw
31% | Peñarol de Montevideo
28.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.28 ↓
(2.47) |
3.01 ↑
(2.79) |
3.29 ↑
(2.97) |
7.5%
(10.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Nacional is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Peñarol has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Peñarol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.
- Nacional might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 1.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Montevideo won against Peñarol de Montevideo?
Nacional Montevideo has won 8 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Peñarol de Montevideo won against Nacional Montevideo?
Peñarol de Montevideo has won 4 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo were as follows:
01.02.2026
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
1:0
30.11.2025
Nacional Montevideo
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
1:0
23.11.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
2:2
09.08.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
3:0
06.07.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
1:0
Latest results of Nacional Montevideo
Latest results of Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:6 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:5 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Penarol | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Montevideo City | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Liverpool M | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Danubio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Central Esp | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Nacional | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Defensor Sp | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:7 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Albion | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Progreso | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Juventud | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:11 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Boston River | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:7 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:8 | -6 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
