Result
01/03/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
Chances of winning
Nacional Montevideo
42.5% | Draw
30% | Peñarol de Montevideo
27.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Montevideo's performance.Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.18 ↓
(2.47) |
3.11 ↑
(2.79) |
3.34 ↑
(2.97) |
8.1%
(10.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Nacional is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Peñarol's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Peñarol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.
- Nacional could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 1.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Montevideo won against Peñarol de Montevideo?
Nacional Montevideo has won 8 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Peñarol de Montevideo won against Nacional Montevideo?
Peñarol de Montevideo has won 4 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo were as follows:
01.02.2026
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
1:0
30.11.2025
Nacional Montevideo
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
1:0
23.11.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
2:2
09.08.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
3:0
06.07.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Nacional Montevideo
1:0
Latest results of Nacional Montevideo
Latest results of Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Central Esp | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Defensor Sp | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Maldonado | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Penarol | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Danubio | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Montevideo City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Albion | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Liverpool M | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Juventud | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Boston River | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | CA Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:6 | -6 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
