Result
0:1
21/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 3
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Antel TV, Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 35% | 65% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 41', Andueza F. 🟨,
- 45+2', Cardozo Coitinho S. 🟨,
- 45+3', 0 - 1, Millan J. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Viera S. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
- 69', Martinez R. ↓, Lodeiro N. ↑,
- 69', Veron T. ↓, Barcia B. ↑,
- 71', Cardozo Coitinho S. 🟨,
- 73', Rocco L. 🟥,
- 79', Sanchez D. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
- 83', Boggio L. ↓, Dos Santos A. ↑,
- 83', Silvera M. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
- 85', Colombino A. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
- 85', De Leon F. ↓, Rivero J. ↑,
- 90', Kidd F. ↓, Lemmo I. ↑,
- 90', Gomez M. ↓, Carneiro G. ↑,
- 90+4', Pinheiro A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Progreso
14.9% | Draw
22.1% | Nacional Montevideo
63% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-7.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Progreso - Nacional Montevideo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.26 ↑
(5.5) |
4.21 ↑
(4.09) |
1.47 ↓
(1.55) |
7.6%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Progreso - Nacional Montevideo?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Recently, Progreso has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Nacional is the undisputed favorite.
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 11:28. (average 0.8:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:16. (average 1:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Progreso won against Nacional Montevideo?
Progreso has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Montevideo won against Progreso?
Nacional Montevideo has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Progreso - Nacional Montevideo were as follows:
22.01.2026
Nacional Montevideo
-
Progreso
1:2
16.08.2025
Nacional Montevideo
-
Progreso
3:1
23.05.2025
Nacional Montevideo
-
Progreso
1:0
16.02.2025
Progreso
-
Nacional Montevideo
1:5
29.09.2024
Progreso
-
Nacional Montevideo
0:3
Latest results of Progreso
Latest results of Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21:15 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Penarol | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 19:13 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Albion | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 22:14 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Central Esp | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20:20 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Defensor Sp | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Montevideo City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19:14 | 5 | 19 |
| 8 | Nacional | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 20:18 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Danubio | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 17:17 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Liverpool M | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17:17 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14:19 | -5 | 17 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13:16 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Boston River | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11:17 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Progreso | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11:20 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Cerro | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8:19 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Juventud | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13:20 | -7 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
