Porto vs Nacional – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/05/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estádio do Dragão (Porto).

Liga Portugal - Round 34
Referee: Bessa J. (Por)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	RTP Africa, RTP Africa, RTP Africa
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Italy	DAZN Italia
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	RTPi, RTP International, Sport TV3
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Saudi-arabia	Shahid VIP
South-america	Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
World	Triller TV+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.88	1.19
Ball Possession
62%	38%
Total shots
10	11
Shots on target
4	5
Big Chances
5	1
Corner Kicks
2	8
Passes
90% (443/491)	82% (234/286)
Yellow Cards
1	7
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.88	1.19
xG on target (xGOT)
2.13	1.67
Total shots
10	11
Shots on target
4	5
Shots off target
4	5
Blocked Shots
2	1
Shots inside the Box
7	5
Shots outside the Box
3	6
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
5	1
Corner Kicks
2	8
Touches in opposition box
19	10
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
15	11
Passes
90% (443/491)	82% (234/286)
Long passes
53% (19/36)	40% (17/42)
Passes in final third
75% (84/112)	63% (40/63)
Crosses
29% (4/14)	26% (5/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.70	0.18
Throw-ins
15	11
Fouls
11	15
Tackles
64% (7/11)	81% (13/16)
Duels won
48	38
Clearances
25	24
Interceptions
9	6
Errors leading to shot
1	2
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
5	1
xGOT faced
1.67	2.13
Goals prevented
1.67	-0.87

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Moura F. ⚽, Fernandes M. (A),
11', Joel (Pen),
13', Matheus Dias 🟨,
25', Ze Vitor 🟨,
43', Vieira F. 🟨,
45+3', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Aurelio J. ↓, Garcia ↑,
46', Sousa A. ↓, Esteves L. ↑,
59', Pepê ↓, Perez T. ↑,
67', Ze Vitor 🟨,
67', 2 - 0, Samu (Pen),
75', Joel ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
75', Matheus Dias ↓, Jota Garces ↑,
75', Macedo R. ↓, Dudu ↑,
75', Vieira F. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
75', Joao Mario ↓, Borges G. ↑,
81', Leo Santos 🟨,
83', 3 - 0, Mora R. ⚽, Borges G. (A),
86', Varela A. ↓, Franco A. ↑,
86', Mora R. ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,
89', Goncalves C. 🟨,
90+2', Garcia 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Porto
73.9%

Draw
16.5%

Nacional
9.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.1%

17.9%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.3%

17.4%

9.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Porto - Nacional Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.31)	5.69 ↑ (5.28)	9.81 ↑ (9.46)	5.6% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

What is the prediction for Porto - Nacional?

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 25 - 92.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 82.7% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 4.
Porto is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Nacional's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Porto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.
There will not play in Porto: Grujic M. (Heel Injury) Perez N. (Red Card) Sousa V. (Calf Injury)
There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Muscle Injury) Fernandes I. (Inactive) Lucas Franca (Yellow Cards) Sousa D. (Inactive)
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Porto won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 47:11. (average 2.5:0.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:2. (average 2.9:0.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Nacional?

Porto has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Porto?

Nacional has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Porto - Nacional were as follows:

12.01.2025 Nacional - Porto 2:0

Latest results of Porto

11.05.2025 Boavista - Porto 1:2 ✺

02.05.2025 Porto - Moreirense 3:1 ✺

26.04.2025 Estrela da Amadora - Porto 2:0 ✺

18.04.2025 Porto - Famalicão 2:1 ✺

12.04.2025 Casa Pia - Porto 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Nacional

10.05.2025 Nacional - Rio Ave 3:3 ✺

03.05.2025 Nacional - Vitoria Guimarães 1:2 ✺

27.04.2025 Moreirense - Nacional 1:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Nacional - Gil Vicente 0:3 ✺

12.04.2025 Boavista - Nacional 0:1 ✺

Liga Portugal Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Estrela	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Vitoria Guimaraes	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Estoril	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Gil Vicente	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Rio Ave	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Santa Clara	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Moreirense	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Sporting CP	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Benfica	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Braga	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Nacional	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Arouca	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Casa Pia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Tondela	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Alverca	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Famalicao	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	AFS	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Liga Portugal (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2