Result
3:0
17/05/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 34
- Referee: Bessa J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | RTP Africa, RTP Africa, RTP Africa |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 9 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | RTPi, RTP International, Sport TV3 |
 Romania | AntenaPLAY |
 Saudi-arabia | Shahid VIP |
 South-america | Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Turkey | S Sport+ |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4 |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.88 | 1.19 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (443/491) | 82% (234/286) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.88 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.13 | 1.67 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (443/491) | 82% (234/286) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (19/36) | 40% (17/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (84/112) | 63% (40/63) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (4/14) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.70 | 0.18 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 81% (13/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.67 | 2.13 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.67 | -0.87 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 1', 1 - 0, Moura F. ⚽, Fernandes M. (A),
- 11', Joel (Pen),
- 13', Matheus Dias 🟨,
- 25', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 43', Vieira F. 🟨,
- 45+3', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Aurelio J. ↓, Garcia ↑,
- 46', Sousa A. ↓, Esteves L. ↑,
- 59', Pepê ↓, Perez T. ↑,
- 67', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 67', 2 - 0, Samu (Pen),
- 75', Joel ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
- 75', Matheus Dias ↓, Jota Garces ↑,
- 75', Macedo R. ↓, Dudu ↑,
- 75', Vieira F. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
- 75', Joao Mario ↓, Borges G. ↑,
- 81', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 83', 3 - 0, Mora R. ⚽, Borges G. (A),
- 86', Varela A. ↓, Franco A. ↑,
- 86', Mora R. ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,
- 89', Goncalves C. 🟨,
- 90+2', Garcia 🟨,
Chances of winning
Porto
73.9% | Draw
16.5% | Nacional
9.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Porto - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.29 ↓
(1.31) |
5.69 ↑
(5.28) |
9.81 ↑
(9.46) |
5.6%
(5.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Porto - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 25 - 92.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 82.7% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 4.
- Porto is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Nacional's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Porto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Porto: Grujic M.
(Heel Injury)
Perez N.
(Red Card)
Sousa V.
(Calf Injury)
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Muscle Injury)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Lucas Franca
(Yellow Cards)
Sousa D.
(Inactive)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Porto won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 47:11. (average 2.5:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:2. (average 2.9:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Nacional?
Porto has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Porto?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Porto - Nacional were as follows:
12.01.2025
Nacional
-
Porto
2:0
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 8 | 6 |
| 2 | Braga | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Famalicao | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Arouca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Nacional | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Santa Clara | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Tondela | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | AFS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
