Result
0:1
15/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 22
- Referee: Bessa J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Albania | Tring Sport 4 |
 Belarus | Sport TV |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Denmark | Bold+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
 Georgia | Silk Sport 1 |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 4 |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kuwait | KTV Sport |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | TV Start, TV Start Triumph |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 5 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 3 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.46 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (220/294) | 79% (260/328) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.46 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.09 | 1.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (220/294) | 79% (260/328) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (26/61) | 42% (15/36) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 47% (35/75) | 60% (61/101) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (7/22) | 21% (5/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.31 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (19/23) | 40% (4/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 42 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.48 | 0.09 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 45+1', Goncalves C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Silva J. ↓, Baeza M. ↑,
- 59', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
- 59', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
- 60', 0 - 1, Bednarek J. ⚽, Veiga G. (A),
- 71', Witi ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 74', Gul D. ↓, Moffi T. ↑,
- 74', Froholdt V. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
- 76', Goncalves C. ↓, Vallier L. ↑,
- 84', Liziero 🟨,
- 85', Paulinho Boia ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 85', Liziero ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 87', Kaique Pereira 🟨,
- 90', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
- 90+3', Vallier L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
12.5% | Draw
19.8% | Porto
67.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Porto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
Nacional - Porto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
7.66 ↓
(12.23) |
4.78 ↓
(5.54) |
1.4 ↑
(1.26) |
5.4%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Nacional - Porto?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Porto will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 51.5% – 92.9%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1.75 - Nacional (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Porto (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH +2 - Nacional (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - Nacional (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.25 - Nacional (1.85) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Porto (votes: 7 - 63.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- In this match, Porto is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Leo Santos
(Yellow Cards)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There will not play in Porto: Moura F.
(Yellow Cards)
Perez N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Samu
(Knee Injury)
de Jong L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Porto: Fernandes M.
(Injury)
Kiwior J.
(Injury)
Perez T.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 11:49. (average 0.6:2.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:25. (average 0.8:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Porto?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Nacional?
Porto has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Porto were as follows:
13.09.2025
Porto
-
Nacional
1:0
17.05.2025
Porto
-
Nacional
3:0
12.01.2025
Nacional
-
Porto
2:0
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
