Result
Postponed
18/02/2026 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 20
Chances of winning
Nairobi United
47.6% | Draw
30.7% | Mara Sugar
21.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nairobi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nairobi United's performance.Mara Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mara Sugar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (-6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nairobi United that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (+6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mara Sugar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Nairobi United - Mara Sugar Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↓
(2.31) |
2.96 ↑
(2.92) |
4.21 ↑
(3.16) |
9.8%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 13).
- Nairobi United has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Mara Sugar is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Nairobi United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Mara Sugar has had a series of away games.
- Nairobi United could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Nairobi United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nairobi United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Nairobi United won against Mara Sugar?
Nairobi United has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mara Sugar won against Nairobi United?
Mara Sugar has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nairobi United - Mara Sugar were as follows:
01.10.2025
Mara Sugar
-
Nairobi United
0:1
01.06.2025
Nairobi United
-
Mara Sugar
2:1
02.06.2024
Mara Sugar
-
Nairobi United
1:0
16.12.2023
Nairobi United
-
Mara Sugar
0:2
Latest results of Nairobi United
Latest results of Mara Sugar
Kenyan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 38:15 | 23 | 49 |
| 2 | Leopards | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 30:14 | 16 | 43 |
| 3 | Shabana | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 40 |
| 4 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 34:23 | 11 | 38 |
| 5 | Police FC | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 20:14 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Muranga | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 31:25 | 6 | 36 |
| 7 | Tusker | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 21:24 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | Bandari | 23 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 32 |
| 9 | KCB | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 22:23 | -1 | 32 |
| 10 | Nairobi United | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 25:20 | 5 | 29 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 23:23 | 0 | 28 |
| 12 | Mathare Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 17:22 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Posta Rangers | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 18:27 | -9 | 24 |
| 14 | Kariobangi Sharks | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 15:25 | -10 | 22 |
| 15 | Bidco United | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15:27 | -12 | 20 |
| 16 | Ulinzi Stars | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 19:26 | -7 | 19 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 23:32 | -9 | 19 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15:33 | -18 | 14 |
Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Super League
