Result
3:1
02/03/2026 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 21
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 17', 1 - 0, Cheruiyot D. ⚽,
- 36', 2 - 0, Imbusia A. ⚽,
- 37', 2 - 1, Ntamba M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 47', 3 - 1, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Mara Sugar
50.8% | Draw
29.2% | Sofapaka
20% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mara Sugar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mara Sugar that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (+4%)
Mara Sugar - Sofapaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.78 ↓
(1.82) |
3.1 ↓
(3.21) |
4.54 ↑
(4.33) |
10.4%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Mara Sugar - Sofapaka?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mara Sugar (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.5 - Mara Sugar (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Mara Sugar (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Mara Sugar (2.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Mara Sugar (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Mara Sugar will win
(4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Mara Sugar (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League).
- In recent matches, Mara Sugar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Sofapaka has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Mara Sugar is considered a favorite.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Mara Sugar won against Sofapaka?
Mara Sugar has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sofapaka won against Mara Sugar?
Sofapaka has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mara Sugar - Sofapaka were as follows:
28.10.2025
Sofapaka
-
Mara Sugar
2:2
01.03.2025
Sofapaka
-
Mara Sugar
1:1
24.11.2024
Mara Sugar
-
Sofapaka
1:1
Latest results of Mara Sugar
Latest results of Sofapaka
Kenyan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 45:19 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Leopards | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 36:22 | 14 | 55 |
| 3 | Police FC | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 26:17 | 9 | 48 |
| 4 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 29 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 43:30 | 13 | 47 |
| 5 | Shabana | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 32:30 | 2 | 47 |
| 6 | Nairobi United | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 40:30 | 10 | 45 |
| 7 | KCB | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 30:31 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Tusker | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 24:27 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Mara Sugar | 29 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 27:25 | 2 | 40 |
| 10 | Bandari | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 22:20 | 2 | 39 |
| 11 | Muranga | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 35:35 | 0 | 38 |
| 12 | Mathare Utd | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 28:31 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | Posta Rangers | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 24:36 | -12 | 32 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 29:33 | -4 | 31 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 29:34 | -5 | 31 |
| 16 | Kariobangi Sharks | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 19:30 | -11 | 30 |
| 17 | Bidco United | 30 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 17:34 | -17 | 24 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 17:39 | -22 | 18 |
Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Super League
