Result
4:1
21/10/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 3
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+ |
 China | iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8 |
 Hong-kong | HOY TV, M Plus Live |
 India | FanCode, FanCode, Vision+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Macao | Macau Cable TV 34 Football |
 Malaysia | Astro Arena 2, Astro Go, Sooka |
 Russia | TV Start |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 1 |
 Ukraine | Sport 3 |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 0.26 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (396/471) | 82% (385/467) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 0.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 0.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (396/471) | 82% (385/467) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (14/36) | 43% (26/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (94/136) | 71% (77/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 8% (1/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.31 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 10 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (10/14) | 63% (5/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 21 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.52 | 1.69 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.48 | -2.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 8', 1 - 0, Cartabia F. ⚽, Guilherme (A),
- 10', 1 - 1, Abdirakhmatov Z. ⚽, Bakhromov S. (A),
- 21', Abdirakhmatov Z. 🟨,
- 26', Nasrullaev S. 🟨,
- 27', 2 - 1, Renan ⚽, Cartabia F. (A),
- 41', 3 - 1, Mateusao ⚽, Ezatolahi S. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Mukhammadiev S. ↓, Colovic S. ↑,
- 46', Mukhitdinov S. ↓, Bozorov O. ↑,
- 62', Golban I. ↓, Sidikov J. ↑,
- 62', Shala A. ↓, Norchaev K. ↑,
- 71', Seifi M. ↓, Gomes I. ↑,
- 72', Mateus Henrique ↓, Kauan Santos ↑,
- 72', Mateusao ↓, Breno ↑,
- 72', Sidikov J. 🟨,
- 80', Abdirakhmatov Z. ↓, Abdunazarov D. ↑,
- 85', Ezatolahi S. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
- 88', Dabbur M. ↓, Thiago ↑,
- 90+1', Davronov A. 🟨,
- 90+5', 4 - 1, Breno ⚽, Guilherme (A),
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/vvjwucdk
Chances of winning
Shabab Al-Ahli
69.9% | Draw
18.3% | Nasaf Qarshi
11.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shabab Al-Ahli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shabab Al-Ahli's performance.Nasaf Qarshi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nasaf Qarshi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (-13.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shabab Al-Ahli that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nasaf Qarshi than the current prediction. (+6.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nasaf Qarshi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Shabab Al-Ahli - Nasaf Qarshi Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.36 ↓
(1.51) |
5.16 ↑
(4.19) |
8.06 ↑
(5.47) |
5.6%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Shabab Al-Ahli - Nasaf Qarshi?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shabab Al-Ahli: 68.4% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Shabab Al-Ahli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Nasaf is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Shabab Al-Ahli is the obvious favorite.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).
- Including home match between the teams, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Shabab Al-Ahli won against Nasaf Qarshi?
Shabab Al-Ahli has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nasaf Qarshi won against Shabab Al-Ahli?
Nasaf Qarshi has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Shabab Al-Ahli - Nasaf Qarshi were as follows:
04.12.2024
Shabab Al-Ahli
-
Nasaf Qarshi
3:2
02.10.2024
Nasaf Qarshi
-
Shabab Al-Ahli
2:1
Latest results of Shabab Al-Ahli
Latest results of Nasaf Qarshi
AFC Champions League Table
League phaseEast | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ulsan HD | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Gangwon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:5 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Machida | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 5 |
| 5 | Shanghai Shenhua | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Seoul | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Johor DT | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Buriram | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 |
West | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Al Hilal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:4 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Ahli SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Wahda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Tractor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:1 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Sharjah | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:9 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ittihad | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:4 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al-Gharafa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:8 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Al-Sadd | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:5 | -2 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Duhail | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Shorta | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Nasaf Qarshi | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5:11 | -6 | 0 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
