Result
1:0
11/04/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 4
- Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 0.75 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (247/303) | 86% (379/442) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 0.75 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 0.13 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (247/303) | 86% (379/442) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (33/53) | 45% (9/20) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (45/64) | 77% (99/129) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (1/9) | 33% (5/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.72 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 91% (10/11) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.13 | 0.49 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.13 | -0.51 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 6', Derek 🟨,
- 12', Matheus Ribeiro 🟨,
- 24', Fernandinho 🟨,
- 33', Leonai Souza 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Leonai Souza ↓, Ramon ↑,
- 46', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
- 47', 1 - 0, Fernandinho ⚽,
- 58', Diego ↓, Julio Cesar ↑,
- 58', Fernandinho ↓, Giulio ↑,
- 60', Juninho ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
- 62', Matheus Araujo 🟨,
- 62', Mateus Silva 🟨,
- 65', Derek ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
- 67', Vina ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
- 67', Matheus Araujo ↓, Wendel Silva ↑,
- 72', Dodo ↓, Felipe Saraiva ↑,
- 73', Matheusinho ↓, Melk ↑,
- 76', Sanchez 🟨,
- 77', Alex Silva 🟨,
Chances of winning
Ceará
50.1% | Draw
28.6% | Náutico Capibaribe
21.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.87 ↑
(1.83) |
3.27 ↓
(3.29) |
4.43 ↓
(4.56) |
6.6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe?
Users Predictions:
Ceará will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Náutico may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Ceará is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Ceará: Pedro Henrique
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Ronald Carvalho
(Inactive)
Vinicius Zanocelo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Náutico: Betao
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Náutico: Junior Todinho
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 0.8:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against Náutico Capibaribe?
Ceará has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Náutico Capibaribe won against Ceará?
Náutico Capibaribe has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe were as follows:
22.01.2025
Náutico Capibaribe
-
Ceará
1:0
14.02.2024
Náutico Capibaribe
-
Ceará
0:0
Latest results of Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vila Nova FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:8 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Fortaleza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 11 |
| 3 | Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Criciuma | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventude | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Ceara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Nautico | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Botafogo SP | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9:6 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Avai | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Novorizontino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Atletico GO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Ponte Preta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Goias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Cuiaba | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | Londrina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | CRB | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | America MG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
