Náutico Capibaribe vs Ponte Preta – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

04/04/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife).

Serie B Superbet - Round 3
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.29	0.60
Ball possession
69%	31%
Total shots
23	5
Shots on target
6	4
Big chances
3	2
Corner kicks
17	3
Passes
87% (385/443)	69% (143/208)
Yellow cards
3	1
Red cards
0	2
Expected goals (xG)
2.29	0.60
xG on target (xGOT)
1.12	1.15
Total shots
23	5
Shots on target
6	4
Shots off target
12	0
Blocked shots
5	1
Shots inside the box
14	4
Shots outside the box
9	0
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
3	2
Corner kicks
17	3
Touches in opposition box
37	13
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
0	1
Free kicks
21	14
Passes
87% (385/443)	69% (143/208)
Long passes
63% (20/32)	33% (16/49)
Passes in final third
84% (127/151)	57% (35/61)
Crosses
22% (9/41)	8% (1/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.74	0.34
Throw ins
25	19
Fouls
14	21
Tackles
64% (7/11)	53% (8/15)
Duels won
58	48
Clearances
20	46
Interceptions
8	3
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	5
xGOT faced
1.15	1.12
Goals prevented
1.15	0.12

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Leonai Souza 🟨,
45+3', Luis Phelipe 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leonai Souza ↓, Ramon ↑,
52', Wenderson 🟨,
53', Helio dos Anjos 🟨,
58', Juninho ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
65', Luis Phelipe ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
67', Saravia Salvia R. A. 🟥,
73', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
73', Paulo Sergio ↓, Derek ↑,
74', Elvis ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
74', Willian Pottker ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Vinicius (Penalty Awarded),
81', Diego Porfirio ↓, Danilo Barcelos ↑,
81', Bryan Borges ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
84', Dodo 🟨,
90+2', Jonathan Cafu 🟥,

Chances of winning

Náutico Capibaribe
55.9%

Draw
27.5%

Ponte Preta
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

28.5%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

27.3%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.83)	3.39 ↑ (3.23)	5.61 ↑ (4.35)	6.9% (8.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Ponte Preta (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Náutico Capibaribe will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Náutico Capibaribe will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 0.
Náutico has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ponte Preta is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Náutico is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Náutico: Junior Todinho (Muscle Injury) Paulo Sergio (Inactive) Wanderson (Red Card)
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:24. (average 0.6:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.4:1.1).

How many head-to-head matches has Náutico Capibaribe won against Ponte Preta?

Náutico Capibaribe has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ponte Preta won against Náutico Capibaribe?

Ponte Preta has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta were as follows:

27.09.2025 Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe 1:1

20.09.2025 Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta 0:1

24.05.2025 Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta 0:1

04.11.2022 Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta 0:1

Latest results of Náutico Capibaribe

01.04.2026 Atlético Goianiense - Náutico Capibaribe 1:2 ✺

22.03.2026 Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma 0:1 ✺

08.03.2026 Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife 0:3 ✺

01.03.2026 Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe 3:3 ✺

22.02.2026 Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Ponte Preta

01.04.2026 Ponte Preta - Ceará 1:1 ✺

22.03.2026 Athletic Club - Ponte Preta 2:1 ✺

18.03.2026 Atlético Goianiense - Ponte Preta 1:0 ✺

10.03.2026 Ponte Preta - Guarany de Bagé 1:0 ✺

15.02.2026 Ponte Preta - São Paulo 1:2 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Goias	3	2	1	0	6:3	3	7
2	Avai	3	2	1	0	3:0	3	7
3	Operario-PR	3	2	1	0	3:1	2	7
4	Botafogo SP	3	2	0	1	7:3	4	6
5	Nautico	3	2	0	1	3:2	1	6
6	Ceara	3	1	2	0	4:2	2	5
7	Vila Nova FC	3	1	2	0	5:4	1	5
8	Athletic Club	3	1	2	0	4:3	1	5
9	Sport Recife	3	1	2	0	3:2	1	5
10	Londrina	3	1	1	1	6:5	1	4
11	Sao Bernardo	3	1	1	1	4:4	0	4
12	Criciuma	3	1	1	1	2:2	0	4
13	Fortaleza	3	1	1	1	2:5	-3	4
14	CRB	3	0	2	1	3:4	-1	2
15	Novorizontino	3	0	2	1	2:4	-2	2
16	Cuiaba	3	0	2	1	0:2	-2	2
17	Ponte Preta	3	0	1	2	2:4	-2	1
18	America MG	3	0	1	2	3:6	-3	1
19	Juventude	3	0	1	2	1:4	-3	1
20	Atletico GO	3	0	0	3	2:5	-3	0

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