North Carolina vs Birmingham Legion – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship
Football USL Championship North Carolina - Birmingham Legion
Result
2:3
11/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.291.10
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
2110
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
90
Passes
87% (414/474)79% (285/360)
Yellow Cards
33
Expected Goals (xG)
1.291.10
xG on target (xGOT)
0.321.34
Total shots
2110
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
103
Blocked Shots
73
Shots inside the Box
137
Shots outside the Box
83
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
90
Touches in opposition box
3116
Accurate through passes
21
Offsides
33
Free Kicks
614
Passes
87% (414/474)79% (285/360)
Long passes
38% (15/39)34% (20/58)
Passes in final third
76% (90/119)60% (35/58)
Crosses
34% (10/29)33% (1/3)
Expected assists (xA)
1.520.89
Throw-ins
158
Fouls
146
Tackles
50% (4/8)71% (10/14)
Duels won
3542
Clearances
831
Interceptions
56
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
1.340.32
Goals prevented
-1.66-1.51

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 4', Turnbull S. 🟨,
  • 40', 1 - 0, Pedro Becker ⚽, Rafa Mentzingen (A),
  • 45', 1 - 1, Damus R. ⚽, Martinez E. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 47', Martinez E. 🟨,
  • 50', Rufe J. 🟨,
  • 56', 1 - 2, Trejo D. ⚽, Pasher T. (A),
  • 59', Martin C. 🟨,
  • 63', 1 - 3, Trejo D. ⚽, Damus R. (A),
  • 70', Martin C. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
  • 70', Al Qaq A. ↓, Conway E. ↑,
  • 79', Pedro Becker ↓, Da Costa R. ↑,
  • 79', Anderson O. ↓, Luckhurst A. ↑,
  • 81', Turnbull S. ↓, Centeno E. ↑,
  • 81', Paterson AJ ↓, McIllhatton S. ↑,
  • 85', Craig P. 🟨,
  • 86', Trejo D. ↓, Tregarthen S. ↑,
  • 87', Damus R. ↓, Preston T. ↑,
  • 90+3', Conway E. 🟨,
  • 90+7', Rafa Mentzingen ↓, Servania J. ↑,
  • 90+8', Martinez E. ↓, Torres R. ↑,
  • 90+9', 2 - 3, Conway E. ⚽,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


North Carolina
47.1%		Draw
26.8%		Birmingham Legion
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.3% 26.1% 20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1% 25.2% 19.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Carolina's form might have worsened.
  • Birmingham Legion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Birmingham Legion's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Carolina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (-6.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Birmingham Legion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    North Carolina - Birmingham Legion Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.95 ↑
    (1.73)    		 3.42 ↓
    (3.52)    		 3.52 ↓
    (4.48)    		 9%
    (8.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    •
    What is the prediction for North Carolina - Birmingham Legion?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. North Carolina (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: North Carolina will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 10).
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • North Carolina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, North Carolina has had a series of away games.
    • North Carolina could have a small edge in this match.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).
    • Including home match between the teams, North Carolina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between North Carolina - Birmingham Legion were as follows:
    06.10.2024 Birmingham Legion - North Carolina 2:3
    14.04.2024 North Carolina - Birmingham Legion 1:1
    Latest results of North Carolina
    06.07.2025 Charleston Battery - North Carolina 1:0 ✺
    29.06.2025 Louisville City - North Carolina 1:0
    20.06.2025 North Carolina - Louisville City 2:1
    14.06.2025 Rhode Island - North Carolina 2:1
    06.06.2025 Hartford Athletic - North Carolina 0:1
    Latest results of Birmingham Legion
    05.07.2025 Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion 1:1 ✺
    02.07.2025 Birmingham Legion - Charleston Battery 0:0 ✺
    21.06.2025 Birmingham Legion - Oakland Roots 0:1 ✺
    18.06.2025 Birmingham Legion - Sacramento Republic 1:0 ✺
    14.06.2025 Louisville City - Birmingham Legion 4:2 ✺
    USL Championship Table
    2025

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Charleston18132338:162241
    2Louisville City17115130:131738
    3Loudoun1883728:27127
    4North Carolina1682625:20526
    5Pittsburgh1765615:15023
    6Detroit1756620:22-221
    7Indy Eleven1655626:28-220
    8Miami FC1754817:25-819
    9Birmingham1846819:25-618
    10Rhode Island1745814:18-417
    11Hartford Athletic1644819:21-216
    12Tampa Bay16421017:25-814


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Tulsa1795327:18932
    2San Antonio1683523:21227
    3New Mexico1681722:21125
    4Sacramento Republic1666422:121024
    5Orange County SC1672726:23323
    6El Paso1665524:25-123
    7Phoenix Rising1765627:30-323
    8Monterey Bay1864819:23-422
    9Colorado Springs1756622:23-121
    10Oakland Roots1762919:25-620
    11Lexington1847718:26-819
    12Las Vegas Lights1753913:28-1518

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