Result
2:3
11/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Championship
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 1.10 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (414/474) | 79% (285/360) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 1.10 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.32 | 1.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (414/474) | 79% (285/360) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (15/39) | 34% (20/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (90/119) | 60% (35/58) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 34% (10/29) | 33% (1/3) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 0.89 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (4/8) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 8 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.32 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.66 | -1.51 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', Turnbull S. 🟨,
- 40', 1 - 0, Pedro Becker ⚽, Rafa Mentzingen (A),
- 45', 1 - 1, Damus R. ⚽, Martinez E. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 47', Martinez E. 🟨,
- 50', Rufe J. 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 2, Trejo D. ⚽, Pasher T. (A),
- 59', Martin C. 🟨,
- 63', 1 - 3, Trejo D. ⚽, Damus R. (A),
- 70', Martin C. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
- 70', Al Qaq A. ↓, Conway E. ↑,
- 79', Pedro Becker ↓, Da Costa R. ↑,
- 79', Anderson O. ↓, Luckhurst A. ↑,
- 81', Turnbull S. ↓, Centeno E. ↑,
- 81', Paterson AJ ↓, McIllhatton S. ↑,
- 85', Craig P. 🟨,
- 86', Trejo D. ↓, Tregarthen S. ↑,
- 87', Damus R. ↓, Preston T. ↑,
- 90+3', Conway E. 🟨,
- 90+7', Rafa Mentzingen ↓, Servania J. ↑,
- 90+8', Martinez E. ↓, Torres R. ↑,
- 90+9', 2 - 3, Conway E. ⚽,
Chances of winning
North Carolina
47.1% | Draw
26.8% | Birmingham Legion
26.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Carolina's form might have worsened.Birmingham Legion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Birmingham Legion's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Carolina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (-6.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Birmingham Legion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
North Carolina - Birmingham Legion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.95 ↑
(1.73) |
3.42 ↓
(3.52) |
3.52 ↓
(4.48) |
9%
(8.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for North Carolina - Birmingham Legion?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. North Carolina (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
North Carolina will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 10).
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- North Carolina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, North Carolina has had a series of away games.
- North Carolina could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, North Carolina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has North Carolina won against Birmingham Legion?
North Carolina has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Birmingham Legion won against North Carolina?
Birmingham Legion has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between North Carolina - Birmingham Legion were as follows:
06.10.2024
Birmingham Legion
-
North Carolina
2:3
14.04.2024
North Carolina
-
Birmingham Legion
1:1
Latest results of North Carolina
Latest results of Birmingham Legion
USL Championship Table
2025Eastern Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Louisville City | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42:17 | 25 | 48 |
| 2 | Charleston | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 41:21 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | North Carolina | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31:27 | 4 | 33 |
| 4 | Loudoun | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 31:29 | 2 | 31 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 20:19 | 1 | 28 |
| 6 | Detroit | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 28 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 29:23 | 6 | 26 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 32:37 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Rhode Island | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 15:23 | -8 | 21 |
| 10 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21:34 | -13 | 20 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 24:33 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 22:31 | -9 | 18 |
Western Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Tulsa | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37:23 | 14 | 42 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29:17 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | El Paso | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33:27 | 6 | 31 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 25:26 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Phoenix Rising | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 35:37 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 | Lexington | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 28:25 | 3 | 27 |
| 8 | New Mexico | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26:28 | -2 | 27 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 25:29 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Monterey Bay | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 23:29 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 24:32 | -8 | 21 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Lights | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 17:39 | -22 | 20 |
Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )
