North Texas vs Real Monarchs – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/09/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Choctaw Stadium (Arlington, TX).

MLS Next Pro
Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Next Pro

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.81	1.55
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
12	17
Shots on target
5	8
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
5	2
Passes
85% (394/461)	87% (397/457)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81	1.55
xG on target (xGOT)
1.14	2.99
Total shots
12	17
Shots on target
5	8
Shots off target
6	4
Blocked Shots
1	5
Shots inside the Box
6	12
Shots outside the Box
6	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	1
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
5	2
Touches in opposition box
15	24
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
3	1
Free Kicks
14	10
Passes
85% (394/461)	87% (397/457)
Long passes
65% (32/49)	54% (28/52)
Passes in final third
64% (75/117)	79% (73/92)
Crosses
27% (3/11)	40% (4/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.59	0.62
Throw-ins
11	12
Fouls
10	14
Tackles
50% (7/14)	100% (3/3)
Duels won
34	23
Clearances
3	12
Interceptions
4	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	3
xGOT faced
2.99	1.14
Goals prevented
-1.01	-0.86

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', 1 - 0, Salazar C. ⚽, Baran D. (A), Swann C. (A2)
26', 1 - 1, Barea J. ⚽,
32', 1 - 2, Barea J. ⚽,
45+3', Hezarkhani A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', Silva T. 🟨,
56', 1 - 3, Jennings M. ⚽, Silva T. (A),
60', 1 - 4, Lineker Rodrigues ⚽,
61', Salazar C. ↓, Sangare F. ↑,
65', Lineker Rodrigues ↓, Anderson O. ↑,
65', Moisa L. ↓, Marquez O. ↑,
65', Baran D. ↓, Molomo Z. ↑,
77', Calderon G. 🟨,
78', Hezarkhani A. ↓, Sandoval B. ↑,
78', DuBois J. ↓, Easterly D. ↑,
78', Swann C. ↓, Orejarena L. ↑,
78', Gall G. ↓, Sedeh S. ↑,
86', 2 - 4, Sangare F. ⚽,
90+2', Cisset M. 🟨,
90+5', Barea J. ↓, O'Gara L. ↑,
90+5', Villa G. ↓, Duke C. ↑,

Chances of winning

North Texas
38.1%

Draw
27%

Real Monarchs
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

25.5%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

25.3%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Texas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in North Texas's performance.

Real Monarchs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Monarchs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Texas than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with North Texas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Monarchs than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Monarchs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

North Texas - Real Monarchs Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (3.02)	3.67 ↑ (3.61)	2.85 ↑ (2.09)	0.7% (8.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

Preview Facts

Real Monarchs is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Texas won 3.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
North Texas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Real Monarchs will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, North Texas won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 2:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, North Texas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has North Texas won against Real Monarchs?

North Texas has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Real Monarchs won against North Texas?

Real Monarchs has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between North Texas - Real Monarchs were as follows:

30.06.2024 Real Monarchs - North Texas 1:2

24.05.2024 North Texas - Real Monarchs 2:1

12.08.2023 Real Monarchs - North Texas 1:1

21.04.2023 North Texas - Real Monarchs 0:1

Latest results of North Texas

21.09.2025 Minnesota United 2 - North Texas 1:2 ✺

14.09.2025 North Texas - Sporting Kansas City II 1:2 ✺

06.09.2025 North Texas - Ventura County 2:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Ventura County - North Texas 0:1 ✺

24.08.2025 North Texas - Los Angeles II 0:4 ✺

Latest results of Real Monarchs

19.09.2025 Los Angeles II - Real Monarchs 1:3 ✺

14.09.2025 Real Monarchs - Ventura County 2:1 ✺

06.09.2025 Sporting Kansas City II - Real Monarchs 2:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance 3:0 ✺

27.08.2025 The Town - Real Monarchs 1:0 ✺

MLS Next Pro Table

Main

Northeast Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	New York Red Bulls 2	28	17	2	3	6	68:56	58
2	Philadelphia Union II	28	15	5	3	5	64:34	58
3	New England Revolution II	28	14	5	2	7	54:37	54
4	Chicago Fire II	28	12	5	2	9	69:58	48
5	Cincinnati 2	28	9	7	0	12	40:41	41
6	Toronto FC II	28	10	2	4	12	34:42	38
7	New York City II	28	9	2	4	13	53:61	35
8	Columbus Crew 2	28	5	1	5	17	40:64	22

Southeast Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Chattanooga	28	13	5	4	6	42:36	53
2	Huntsville	28	14	4	2	8	56:32	52
3	Carolina Core	28	8	5	5	10	42:44	39
4	Atlanta United 2	28	9	2	7	10	44:43	38
5	Orlando City B	28	9	4	2	13	38:55	37
6	Crown Legacy	28	7	3	5	13	45:54	32
7	Inter Miami II	28	6	1	5	16	40:72	25

Pacific Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Town FC	28	14	4	2	8	59:36	52
2	Real Monarchs	28	13	4	4	7	55:42	51
3	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	28	11	4	1	12	61:54	42
4	Ventura County	28	11	2	4	11	48:51	41
5	Portland Timbers 2	28	10	2	4	12	47:54	38
6	Tacoma Defiance	28	10	2	2	14	62:67	36
7	Los Angeles FC II	28	9	2	2	15	47:61	33

Frontier Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	St. Louis City 2	28	17	5	1	5	60:37	62
2	Colorado Rapids 2	28	15	1	4	8	55:40	51
3	Minnesota 2	28	12	2	4	10	45:42	44
4	North Texas	28	11	4	2	11	46:56	43
5	Austin FC II	28	10	3	5	10	35:36	41
6	Houston Dynamo 2	28	9	4	2	13	40:47	37
7	Sporting Kansas City II	28	3	2	4	19	30:67	17

Eastern Conference

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	New York Red Bulls 2	28	17	2	3	6	68:56	58
2	Philadelphia Union II	28	15	5	3	5	64:34	58
3	New England Revolution II	28	14	5	2	7	54:37	54
4	Chattanooga	28	13	5	4	6	42:36	53
5	Huntsville	28	14	4	2	8	56:32	52
6	Chicago Fire II	28	12	5	2	9	69:58	48
7	Cincinnati 2	28	9	7	0	12	40:41	41
8	Carolina Core	28	8	5	5	10	42:44	39
9	Toronto FC II	28	10	2	4	12	34:42	38
10	Atlanta United 2	28	9	2	7	10	44:43	38
11	Orlando City B	28	9	4	2	13	38:55	37
12	New York City II	28	9	2	4	13	53:61	35
13	Crown Legacy	28	7	3	5	13	45:54	32
14	Inter Miami II	28	6	1	5	16	40:72	25
15	Columbus Crew 2	28	5	1	5	17	40:64	22

Western Conference

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	St. Louis City 2	28	17	5	1	5	60:37	62
2	Town FC	28	14	4	2	8	59:36	52
3	Colorado Rapids 2	28	15	1	4	8	55:40	51
4	Real Monarchs	28	13	4	4	7	55:42	51
5	Minnesota 2	28	12	2	4	10	45:42	44
6	North Texas	28	11	4	2	11	46:56	43
7	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	28	11	4	1	12	61:54	42
8	Ventura County	28	11	2	4	11	48:51	41
9	Austin FC II	28	10	3	5	10	35:36	41
10	Portland Timbers 2	28	10	2	4	12	47:54	38
11	Houston Dynamo 2	28	9	4	2	13	40:47	37
12	Tacoma Defiance	28	10	2	2	14	62:67	36
13	Los Angeles FC II	28	9	2	2	15	47:61	33
14	Sporting Kansas City II	28	3	2	4	19	30:67	17

Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)