Sporting Lisbon vs Olympique Marseille – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Result
2:1
22/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - League phase - Round 3
  • Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 6
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 4
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 5, Pickx+ Sports 5, Play Sports 7, Play Sports 7
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilHBO Max
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
franceFranceCANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free, New World TV
georgiaGeorgiaSilk Sport 3
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 5
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
hungaryHungaryRTL+
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
kenyaKenyaGotv
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 7
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, HBO Max
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport OTT 3
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayTV2 Play
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 6
portugalPortugalSport TV5
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 4 South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 8
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyTabii Spor 6, Tabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 7
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaCBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.930.44
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
73
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
31
Passes
84% (394/467)85% (362/426)
Yellow Cards
25
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.930.44
xG on target (xGOT)
1.690.71
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
73
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
23
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
56
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
31
Touches in opposition box
3112
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1611
Passes
84% (394/467)85% (362/426)
Long passes
59% (20/34)40% (20/50)
Passes in final third
69% (91/131)74% (75/101)
Crosses
14% (2/14)0% (0/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.620.56
Throw-ins
1713
Fouls
1116
Tackles
77% (10/13)70% (16/23)
Duels won
3945
Clearances
924
Interceptions
1011
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
0.711.69
Goals prevented
-0.29-0.31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 2', Balerdi L. 🟨,
  • 14', 0 - 1, Paixao I. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
  • 37', De Zerbi R. 🟨,
  • 39', Emerson 🟨,
  • 45+2', Emerson 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Vermeeren A. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
  • 46', Greenwood M. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
  • 64', Simoes J. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
  • 64', Quenda G. ↓, Catamo G. ↑,
  • 67', Weah T. ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
  • 67', Paixao I. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
  • 69', 1 - 1, Catamo G. ⚽, Goncalves P. (A),
  • 80', Fresneda I. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
  • 80', Debast Z. ↓, Diomande O. ↑,
  • 82', Aubameyang P. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
  • 86', 2 - 1, Alisson Santos ⚽, Ioannidis F. (A),
  • 90', Araujo M. 🟨,
  • 90', Pavard B. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Araujo M. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
  • 90+5', Goncalves P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Sporting Lisbon
37.3%		Draw
27%		Olympique Marseille
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.3% 25.6% 30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47% 27.1% 28.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Lisbon's form might have worsened.
  • Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olympique Marseille's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-7.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.92 ↑
    (2.16)    		 3.88 ↑
    (3.73)    		 2.81 ↓
    (3.18)    		 -4.4%
    (4.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille?
  • Users Predictions: 75 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 34 - 45.3%). Marseille will win (votes: 23 - 30.7%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 24%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 34% – 56.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 28 high ROI users predict this event. Sporting (votes: 12 - 42.9%). Marseille (votes: 8 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 8 - 28.6%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Marseille (2.29) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH +0.25 - Marseille (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Sporting (1.95) (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • DNB - Marseille (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - Marseille (1.67) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Marseille (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 45 high ROI users predict this event. Sporting (votes: 19 - 42.2%). Marseille (votes: 18 - 40%). Tie (votes: 8 - 17.8%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Sporting is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Marseille is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Sporting might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Marseille: Blanco R. (Inactive) Garcia U. (Inactive) Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Lirola P. (Inactive) Maupay N. (Inactive) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury) Vermot T. (Inactive)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille were as follows:
    12.10.2022 Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille 0:2
    04.10.2022 Olympique Marseille - Sporting Lisbon 4:1
    Latest results of Sporting Lisbon
    18.10.2025 Paços de Ferreira - Sporting Lisbon 2:3 ✺
    05.10.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Braga 1:1 ✺
    01.10.2025 Napoli - Sporting Lisbon 2:1 ✺
    27.09.2025 Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon 0:1 ✺
    22.09.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense 3:0 ✺
    Latest results of Olympique Marseille
    18.10.2025 Olympique Marseille - Le Havre 6:2 ✺
    04.10.2025 Metz - Olympique Marseille 0:3 ✺
    30.09.2025 Olympique Marseille - Ajax 4:0 ✺
    26.09.2025 Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille 1:2 ✺
    22.09.2025 Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:0 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Monaco (21)PSG (11)2 : 2, 2 : 3
    2Chelsea (6)Bye
    3Galatasaray (20)Juventus (13)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    4Liverpool (3)Bye
    5Benfica (24)Real Madrid (9)1 : 2, 0 : 1
    6Manchester City (8)Bye
    7Dortmund (17)Atalanta (15)1 : 4, 2 : 0
    8Bayern Munich (2)Bye
    9Qarabag (22)Newcastle (12)2 : 3, 1 : 6
    10Barcelona (5)Bye
    11Club Brugge KV (19)Atl. Madrid (14)1 : 4, 3 : 3
    12Tottenham (4)Bye
    13Bodo/Glimt (23)Inter (10)2 : 1, 3 : 1
    14Sporting CP (7)Bye
    15Olympiacos Piraeus (18)Bayer Leverkusen (16)0 : 0, 0 : 2
    16Arsenal (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1PSG (11)Chelsea (6)
    2Galatasaray (20)Liverpool (3)
    3Real Madrid (9)Manchester City (8)
    4Atalanta (15)Bayern Munich (2)
    5Newcastle (12)Barcelona (5)
    6Atl. Madrid (14)Tottenham (4)
    7Bodo/Glimt (23)Sporting CP (7)
    8Bayer Leverkusen (16)Arsenal (1)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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