Result
0:1
07/03/2026 at 15:05 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 25
- Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | SuperSport Variety 4, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TV5 Monde Asia |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Europe | TV5 Monde Europe |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Ligue 1+ |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Kazakhstan | Setanta Sports |
 Mexico | FOX One |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 3 |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 3 |
 South-america | TV5 Monde Amerique Latine |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 1.09 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (362/438) | 84% (387/458) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 0.39 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (362/438) | 84% (387/458) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (21/42) | 36% (20/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (72/107) | 58% (50/86) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 47% (7/15) | 20% (2/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 0.38 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (10/19) | 44% (11/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.39 | 0.43 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.61 | 0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 12', Medina F. 🟨,
- 18', 0 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Emersonn ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
- 59', Donnum A. 🟨,
- 59', Greenwood M. 🟨,
- 60', Weah T. 🟨,
- 64', McKenzie M. 🟨,
- 66', Greenwood M. ↓, Gouiri A. ↑,
- 66', Kondogbia G. ↓, Nnadi T. ↑,
- 69', Casseres C. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
- 78', Kamanzi W. ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
- 79', Methalie D. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
- 82', Timber Q. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
- 83', Aubameyang P. ↓, Emerson ↑,
- 84', Demba P. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toulouse
29.8% | Draw
26.8% | Olympique Marseille
43.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Toulouse - Olympique Marseille Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.23 ↓
(3.24) |
3.54 ↓
(3.57) |
2.19 ↑
(2.13) |
4.8%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Toulouse - Olympique Marseille?
Users Predictions:
32 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 6 - 18.8%). Marseille will win (votes: 20 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 45.7% – 79.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.25 - Toulouse (1.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Marseille (1.33) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +1 - Toulouse (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Olympique Marseille will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Marseille (votes: 10 - 71.4%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.
- The current form of both teams is below expectations.
- Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Toulouse has had a series of away games.
- Marseille might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Cresswell C.
(Injury)
Dominguez A.
(Inactive)
Francis A.
(Broken Leg)
Magri F.
(Knee Injury)
Messali R.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Marseille: Nadir B.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:42. (average 1.1:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:21. (average 1.2:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Olympique Marseille?
Toulouse has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Olympique Marseille won against Toulouse?
Olympique Marseille has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toulouse - Olympique Marseille were as follows:
04.03.2026
Olympique Marseille
-
Toulouse
2:3
29.11.2025
Olympique Marseille
-
Toulouse
2:2
06.04.2025
Olympique Marseille
-
Toulouse
3:2
31.08.2024
Toulouse
-
Olympique Marseille
1:3
21.04.2024
Toulouse
-
Olympique Marseille
2:2
Latest results of Toulouse
Latest results of Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 58:22 | 36 | 60 |
| 2 | Lens | 27 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 54:24 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Marseille | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 54:35 | 19 | 49 |
| 4 | Lyon | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 47 |
| 5 | Lille | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 42:34 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Monaco | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Rennes | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 43:37 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43:33 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38:32 | 6 | 37 |
| 10 | Lorient | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 37:41 | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Brest | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 34:39 | -5 | 36 |
| 12 | Angers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 32 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 32:43 | -11 | 31 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 22:35 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 | Nice | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:52 | -20 | 27 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 22:36 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Nantes | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:45 | -21 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 25:60 | -35 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
