Result
3:2
06/04/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 28
- Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Albania | SuperSport 3 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Belgium | DAZN 1 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3 |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay, V Sport Ultra |
 France | DAZN 1, DAZN France |
 Georgia | Setanta Sports 2 |
 Germany | DAZN 1 Deutsch |
 India | GXR World |
 Israel | 5 LIVE Israel |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Kosovo | ART Sport 3 |
 Mexico | Caliente TV App, Caliente TV |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | Viaplay, V Sport+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | beIN Sports |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport Premium |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.19 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 67% | 33% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (555/617) | 83% (251/302) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.64 | 1.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 14 |
| Through passes |
|---|
| 0% (0/1) | 100% (1/1) |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (555/617) | 83% (251/302) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (14/28) | 44% (19/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (102/129) | 60% (34/57) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (3/17) | 14% (1/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 35 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 6 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.64 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.53 | -1.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 21', 1 - 0, Suazo G. (Own goal),
- 24', Greenwood M. 🟨,
- 28', 1 - 1, Magri F. ⚽, Suazo G. (A),
- 32', Babicka S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 56', Magri F. 🟨,
- 56', Maupay N. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
- 56', Cornelius D. ↓, Lirola P. ↑,
- 57', 2 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Bennacer I. (A),
- 64', 3 - 1, Rabiot A. ⚽,
- 68', Casseres C. 🟨,
- 75', Gboho Y. ↓, King J. ↑,
- 75', Babicka S. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
- 75', Sidibe D. ↓, Canvot J. ↑,
- 76', 3 - 2, Sierro V. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
- 76', Merlin Q. ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
- 90+1', Greenwood M. ↓, Dedic A. ↑,
- 90+1', Bennacer I. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
- 90+1', Cresswell C. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
- 90+5', Nadir B. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Olympique Marseille
54.6% | Draw
24.3% | Toulouse
21.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-3%)
Olympique Marseille - Toulouse Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.75 ↑
(1.61) |
3.91 ↓
(4.13) |
4.55 ↓
(5.38) |
4.8%
(5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fubo (for US customers) Network on : beIN SPORTS
What is the prediction for Olympique Marseille - Toulouse?
Users Predictions:
49 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 38 - 77.6%). Toulouse will win (votes: 6 - 12.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 10.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 65.9% – 89.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.75 - Toulouse (votes: 3 - 75%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Olympique Marseille will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Marseille won 3.
- Marseille is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Recent matches Toulouse is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Marseille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- In this match Marseille is a favorite.
- There will not play in Marseille: Balerdi L.
(Knee Injury)
Blanco R.
(Ankle Injury)
Harit A.
(Calf Injury)
Hojbjerg P.
(Foot Injury)
Luiz Felipe
(Thigh Injury)
Mbemba Ch.
(Inactive)
Moumbagna F.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Toulouse: Aboukhlal Z.
(Hamstring Injury)
Nicolaisen R.
(Calf Injury)
Schmidt N.
(Knee Injury)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches Marseille won 12 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 45:17 (average 2.3:0.9).
- Including matches at home between the teams Marseille won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 18:4 (average 2:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Olympique Marseille won against Toulouse?
Olympique Marseille has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Olympique Marseille?
Toulouse has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Olympique Marseille - Toulouse were as follows:
31.08.2024
Toulouse
-
Olympique Marseille
1:3
21.04.2024
Toulouse
-
Olympique Marseille
2:2
17.09.2023
Olympique Marseille
-
Toulouse
0:0
19.02.2023
Toulouse
-
Olympique Marseille
2:3
29.12.2022
Olympique Marseille
-
Toulouse
6:1
Latest results of Olympique Marseille
Latest results of Toulouse
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Marseille | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21:7 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | PSG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Lens | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rennes | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11:12 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Nantes | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Lorient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:12 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4:12 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Metz | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5:20 | -15 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
