Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1
Football French Ligue 1 Olympique Marseille - Toulouse
Result
3:2
06/04/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 28
  • Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.891.19
Ball Possession
67%33%
Total shots
98
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
51
Passes
90% (555/617)83% (251/302)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
0.891.19
xG on target (xGOT)
0.641.47
Total shots
98
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
20
Shots inside the Box
75
Shots outside the Box
23
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
51
Touches in opposition box
2514
Through passes
0% (0/1)100% (1/1)
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1511
Passes
90% (555/617)83% (251/302)
Long passes
50% (14/28)44% (19/43)
Passes in final third
79% (102/129)60% (34/57)
Crosses
18% (3/17)14% (1/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.93
Fouls
1115
Tackles
45% (5/11)57% (8/14)
Duels won
4335
Clearances Total
623
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
1.470.64
Goals prevented
-0.53-1.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 21', 1 - 0, Suazo G. (Own goal),
  • 24', Greenwood M. 🟨,
  • 28', 1 - 1, Magri F. ⚽, Suazo G. (A),
  • 32', Babicka S. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 56', Magri F. 🟨,
  • 56', Maupay N. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
  • 56', Cornelius D. ↓, Lirola P. ↑,
  • 57', 2 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Bennacer I. (A),
  • 64', 3 - 1, Rabiot A. ⚽,
  • 68', Casseres C. 🟨,
  • 75', Gboho Y. ↓, King J. ↑,
  • 75', Babicka S. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
  • 75', Sidibe D. ↓, Canvot J. ↑,
  • 76', 3 - 2, Sierro V. ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
  • 76', Merlin Q. ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
  • 90+1', Greenwood M. ↓, Dedic A. ↑,
  • 90+1', Bennacer I. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
  • 90+1', Cresswell C. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
  • 90+5', Nadir B. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Olympique Marseille
54.6%		Draw
24.3%		Toulouse
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
59.2% 23.1% 17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9% 22.6% 18.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
  • Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-3%)
    •

    Olympique Marseille - Toulouse Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.75 ↑
    (1.61)    		 3.91 ↓
    (4.13)    		 4.55 ↓
    (5.38)    		 4.8%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

  • Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fubo (for US customers)
  • Network on : beIN SPORTS
    •
    What is the prediction for Olympique Marseille - Toulouse?
  • Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 38 - 77.6%). Toulouse will win (votes: 6 - 12.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 10.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 65.9% – 89.3%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.75 - Toulouse (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Olympique Marseille will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Marseille won 3.
    • Marseille is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Recent matches Toulouse is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Marseille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Marseille is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Knee Injury) Blanco R. (Ankle Injury) Harit A. (Calf Injury) Hojbjerg P. (Foot Injury) Luiz Felipe (Thigh Injury) Mbemba Ch. (Inactive) Moumbagna F. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Toulouse: Aboukhlal Z. (Hamstring Injury) Nicolaisen R. (Calf Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Marseille won 12 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 45:17 (average 2.3:0.9).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Marseille won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 18:4 (average 2:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Olympique Marseille - Toulouse were as follows:
    31.08.2024 Toulouse - Olympique Marseille 1:3
    21.04.2024 Toulouse - Olympique Marseille 2:2
    17.09.2023 Olympique Marseille - Toulouse 0:0
    19.02.2023 Toulouse - Olympique Marseille 2:3
    29.12.2022 Olympique Marseille - Toulouse 6:1
    Latest results of Olympique Marseille
    29.03.2025 Reims - Olympique Marseille 3:1 ✺
    08.03.2025 Olympique Marseille - Lens 0:1 ✺
    02.03.2025 Olympique Marseille - Nantes 2:0 ✺
    22.02.2025 Auxerre - Olympique Marseille 3:0 ✺
    15.02.2025 Olympique Marseille - Saint-Étienne 5:1 ✺
    Latest results of Toulouse
    30.03.2025 Toulouse - Brest 2:4 ✺
    07.03.2025 Toulouse - Monaco 1:1 ✺
    02.03.2025 Angers - Toulouse 0:4 ✺
    23.02.2025 Le Havre - Toulouse 1:4 ✺
    15.02.2025 Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain 0:1 ✺
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Auxerre00000:000
    2Le Havre00000:000
    3Lille00000:000
    4Lorient00000:000
    5Metz00000:000
    6Monaco00000:000
    7Nantes00000:000
    8Nice00000:000
    9PSG00000:000
    10Strasbourg00000:000
    11Angers00000:000
    12Brest00000:000
    13Paris FC00000:000
    14Marseille00000:000
    15Toulouse00000:000
    16Lens00000:000
    17Rennes00000:000
    18Lyon00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

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