Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship
Result
4:1
30/07/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN 2, ESPN App
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.621.77
Ball Possession
43%57%
Total shots
1512
Shots on target
82
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
17
Passes
82% (281/343)84% (364/433)
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.621.77
xG on target (xGOT)
3.021.43
Total shots
1512
Shots on target
82
Shots off target
65
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
128
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
17
Touches in opposition box
1921
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1612
Passes
82% (281/343)84% (364/433)
Long passes
44% (22/50)49% (20/41)
Passes in final third
66% (43/65)71% (72/101)
Crosses
43% (3/7)19% (6/31)
Expected assists (xA)
0.771.34
Throw-ins
2319
Fouls
1216
Tackles
58% (7/12)88% (7/8)
Duels won
3832
Clearances
1910
Interceptions
812
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
1.433.02
Goals prevented
0.21-0.98

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 20', 1 - 0, Zubak E. ⚽, Hegardt C. (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 58', 2 - 0, Doghman R. ⚽, Zubak E. (A),
  • 60', Emmers X. ↓, Sacko I. ↑,
  • 60', Ciotta N. ↓, Santos K. ↑,
  • 60', War M. ↓, Jamison B. ↑,
  • 63', Margaritha J. ↓, Dennis C. ↑,
  • 68', 2 - 1, Sacko I. ⚽, Johnson D. (A),
  • 72', 3 - 1, Jamison B. ⚽, Hegardt C. (A),
  • 77', Rizzo P. ↓, Sainte C. F. ↑,
  • 77', Zubak E. ↓, Trager T. ↑,
  • 77', Sylla O. ↓, Miles A. ↑,
  • 82', Mar Boye P. 🟥,
  • 85', Hegardt C. ↓, Guimaraes P. ↑,
  • 89', 4 - 1, Guimaraes P. ⚽, Jamison B. (A),

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Orange County SC
52.7%		Draw
25%		Phoenix Rising
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.1% 26% 23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1% 25% 22.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
  • Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
    •

    Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.76 ↓
    (1.84)    		 3.71 ↑
    (3.54)    		 4.15 ↑
    (3.87)    		 8%
    (8.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Orange County SC will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Phoenix Rising will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Orange County SC (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 1.
    • Orange County SC is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Phoenix Rising has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Phoenix Rising may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Phoenix Rising has had a series of away games.
    • Orange County SC will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:28. (average 1.1:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Orange County SC won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising were as follows:
    07.06.2025 Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC 3:1
    25.09.2024 Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising 2:0
    08.06.2024 Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC 2:1
    28.10.2023 Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising 1:2
    30.09.2023 Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC 1:1
    Latest results of Orange County SC
    26.07.2025 Oakland Roots - Orange County SC 0:1
    19.07.2025 Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights 4:0
    11.07.2025 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 2:1
    03.07.2025 Loudoun United - Orange County SC 0:0 ✺
    14.06.2025 El Paso Locomotive - Orange County SC 0:3 ✺
    Latest results of Phoenix Rising
    19.07.2025 El Paso Locomotive - Phoenix Rising 2:3
    12.07.2025 Oakland Roots - Phoenix Rising 1:2
    04.07.2025 Phoenix Rising - Lexington 0:1 ✺
    21.06.2025 Charleston Battery - Phoenix Rising 4:1 ✺
    14.06.2025 Tulsa - Phoenix Rising 1:1 ✺
    USL Championship Table
    2026

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Charleston00000:000
    2Tampa Bay00000:000
    3Pittsburgh00000:000
    4Indy Eleven00000:000
    5Detroit00000:000
    6Louisville City00000:000
    7Miami FC00000:000
    8Hartford Athletic00000:000
    9Birmingham00000:000
    10Loudoun00000:000
    11Rhode Island00000:000
    12Sporting Jax00000:000
    13Brooklyn00000:000


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Orange County SC00000:000
    2New Mexico00000:000
    3Sacramento Republic00000:000
    4FC Tulsa00000:000
    5Colorado Springs00000:000
    6San Antonio00000:000
    7Phoenix Rising00000:000
    8Oakland Roots00000:000
    9Monterey Bay00000:000
    10Las Vegas Lights00000:000
    11El Paso00000:000
    12Lexington00000:000

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

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