Result
1:3
21/09/2025 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 9
- Referee: Tsyganok S. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | Q League Asia, Q Sport Asia |
 Belarus | Belarus 5 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 2.63 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (241/339) | 68% (225/332) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 2.63 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (241/339) | 68% (225/332) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (33/75) | 44% (36/81) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (60/105) | 64% (70/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (3/15) | 21% (6/28) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.32 | 0.86 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (7/9) | 62% (13/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.52 | 0.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.48 | -0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Kvekveskiri I. 🟨,
- 28', Fomin D. 🟨,
- 45+2', Chichinadze A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 57', 0 - 1, Maouhoub E. ⚽,
- 62', Kvekveskiri I. ↓, Kamilov V. ↑,
- 62', Ignatjev I. ↓, Koserik N. ↑,
- 62', Tsenov E. ↓, Thompson J. ↑,
- 67', Maouhoub E. ↓, Babaev U. ↑,
- 67', Miranchuk An. ↓, Marichal N. ↑,
- 74', Moufi F. ↓, Gurluk E. ↑,
- 77', Caceres J. 🟨,
- 85', 0 - 2, Osipenko M. (Pen),
- 86', Bolotov E. ↓, Bubanja V. ↑,
- 90+3', Fomin D. ↓, Aleksandrov D. ↑,
- 90+3', Caceres J. ↓, Kutitsky A. ↑,
- 90+5', Sergeev I. ↓, Okishor V. ↑,
- 90+7', 0 - 3, Babaev U. ⚽, Bitello (A),
- 90+9', 1 - 3, Savelyev M. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Orenburg
21.6% | Draw
23.2% | Dynamo Moscow
55.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)Dynamo Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dynamo Moscow's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (+8.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Orenburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dynamo Moscow than the current prediction. (-13.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dynamo Moscow, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Orenburg - Dynamo Moscow Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.45 ↑
(3.65) |
4.15 ↑
(3.65) |
1.74 ↓
(1.89) |
4%
(7.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Orenburg - Dynamo Moscow?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Orenburg will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Dynamo M will win (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 in the zone Premier League (Relegation) and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 0.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Recently, Orenburg has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Dynamo M is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Dynamo M: Arthur Gomes
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Chavez L.
(Knee Injury)
Gladyshev Y.
(Muscle Injury)
Majstorovic M.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:34. (average 1.4:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.7:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Dynamo Moscow?
Orenburg has won 2 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Dynamo Moscow won against Orenburg?
Dynamo Moscow has won 7 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orenburg - Dynamo Moscow were as follows:
29.03.2025
Dynamo Moscow
-
Orenburg
5:1
01.09.2024
Orenburg
-
Dynamo Moscow
2:2
24.04.2024
Orenburg
-
Dynamo Moscow
1:2
17.04.2024
Orenburg
-
Dynamo Moscow
2:4
08.02.2024
Dynamo Moscow
-
Orenburg
4:1
Latest results of Orenburg
Latest results of Dynamo Moscow
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:7 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18:8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Baltika | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13:5 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 20:13 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15:7 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Akhmat Grozny | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Krylya Sovetov | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | FK Rostov | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:12 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:11 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Akron Togliatti | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12:14 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8:17 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Sochi | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5:24 | -19 | 1 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
