Orenburg vs Pari NN – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/04/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Gazovik Stadium (Orenburg).

Premier League - Round 26
Referee: Frolov A. (Rus)
Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 4

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.46	0.97
Ball possession
55%	45%
Total shots
18	6
Shots on target
6	1
Big chances
0	1
Corner kicks
10	4
Passes
70% (224/319)	65% (171/264)
Yellow cards
2	3
Expected goals (xG)
1.46	0.97
xG on target (xGOT)
2.00	0.71
Total shots
18	6
Shots on target
6	1
Shots off target
10	2
Blocked shots
2	3
Shots inside the box
13	3
Shots outside the box
5	3
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Headed goals
2	0
Big chances
0	1
Corner kicks
10	4
Touches in opposition box
37	11
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	2
Free kicks
17	11
Passes
70% (224/319)	65% (171/264)
Long passes
42% (24/57)	29% (22/75)
Passes in final third
59% (64/108)	47% (36/77)
Crosses
57% (12/21)	8% (1/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.30	0.12
Throw ins
24	17
Fouls
10	15
Tackles
64% (14/22)	60% (12/20)
Duels won
71	46
Clearances
16	22
Interceptions
7	14
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
0	4
xGOT faced
0.71	2.00
Goals prevented
-0.29	0.00

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', Ovsyannikov B. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Balboa A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Ivlev A. 🟨,
55', Urvantsev M. 🟨,
57', Tsenov E. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
67', Savelyev M. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
68', Puebla D. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
69', Balboa A. 🟨,
69', Urvantsev M. ↓, Lesovoy D. ↑,
70', Ivlev A. ↓, Ermakov N. ↑,
70', Balboa A. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Alexandre Jesus ⚽, Thompson J. (A),
82', 2 - 1, Alexandre Jesus ⚽, Thompson J. (A),
84', Cantero A. 🟨,
85', Castillo J. ↓, Grulev V. ↑,
89', Bolotov E. ↓, Kvekveskiri I. ↑,
89', Du Queiroz ↓, Kul R. ↑,
90+2', Ticic L. ↓, Sidorenko A. ↑,

Chances of winning

Orenburg
49.9%

Draw
27.2%

Pari NN
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

28.3%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

28.6%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orenburg's performance.

Pari NN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pari NN might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orenburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pari NN than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pari NN could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Orenburg - Pari NN Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.24)	3.57 ↑ (3.3)	4.23 ↑ (3.1)	3% (7.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Orenburg - Pari NN?

Users Predictions: Orenburg will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 2.
Orenburg is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
In recent matches, Pari NN has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Orenburg could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Orenburg: Guzina G. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Pari NN: Ektov A. (Knee Injury) Karic S. (Yellow Cards) Olusegun O. (Red Card)
There are questionable in Orenburg: Moufi F. (Injury)
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Pari NN?

Orenburg has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Pari NN won against Orenburg?

Pari NN has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Orenburg - Pari NN were as follows:

13.09.2025 Pari NN - Orenburg 3:1

04.04.2025 Pari NN - Orenburg 1:2

27.09.2024 Orenburg - Pari NN 1:2

14.04.2024 Orenburg - Pari NN 3:1

24.09.2023 Pari NN - Orenburg 3:1

Latest results of Orenburg

18.04.2026 Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow 0:1 ✺

11.04.2026 Rubin Kazan - Orenburg 0:0 ✺

04.04.2026 Dynamo Moscow - Orenburg 3:3 ✺

22.03.2026 Orenburg - Spartak Moscow 0:2 ✺

13.03.2026 Dynamo Makhachkala - Orenburg 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Pari NN

18.04.2026 Pari NN - Dynamo Moscow 1:1 ✺

11.04.2026 Baltika Kaliningrad - Pari NN 2:2 ✺

05.04.2026 Pari NN - Rostov 0:1 ✺

21.03.2026 Krasnodar - Pari NN 5:0 ✺

15.03.2026 Pari NN - Krylya Sovetov 3:0 ✺

Russian Premier League Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Krasnodar	28	19	6	3	56:21	35	63
2	Zenit	28	18	8	2	50:18	32	62
3	Lokomotiv Moscow	28	13	11	4	52:36	16	50
4	Spartak Moscow	28	14	6	8	45:38	7	48
5	Baltika	28	11	13	4	37:18	19	46
6	CSKA Moscow	28	13	6	9	39:31	8	45
7	Rubin Kazan	28	11	9	8	26:26	0	42
8	Dynamo Moscow	28	10	9	9	47:38	9	39
9	Akhmat Grozny	28	9	8	11	33:37	-4	35
10	FK Rostov	28	7	9	12	22:30	-8	30
11	Krylya Sovetov	28	7	8	13	31:48	-17	29
12	Akron Togliatti	28	6	9	13	33:46	-13	27
13	Orenburg	28	6	8	14	28:41	-13	26
14	Dynamo Makhachkala	28	5	9	14	18:36	-18	24
15	Pari NN	28	6	4	18	23:46	-23	22
16	Sochi	28	6	3	19	27:57	-30	21

Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL